From 8% to Under 7.5%, Mortgage Rates Had a Near-Record Week

The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was over 8% as recently as October 19th. At the start of the present week, things weren't much better at 7.92%. What a difference a few days make--especially the last 3. The improvement seen on Wed-Fri is the 3rd biggest in well over a decade. And if we throw out March 2020 (as we often do, due to unprecedented volatility relating to the onset of the pandemic), we're left with only one other example back early November of 2022. So is this some kind of seasonal pattern? You'd be forgiven for drawing that conclusion, but in both cases, rates had recently surged to new long-term highs and then encountered surprisingly friendly economic data. Last November it was a low reading in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that gave investors hope regarding a shift in inflation. Unfortunately, that shift proved to be a head-fake and rates continued lower into February of 2023, it's been up, up, and away since then. This time around, scheduled data gets the credit again, but there's a more robust assortment. The good times began to roll on Wednesday after Treasury announced lower-than-expected auction amounts (lower supply of bonds relative to expectations means lower rates, all other things being equal). The rally gained momentum with economic data at 10am and again with the Fed announcement in the afternoon. Thursday was mild by comparison, but kept the trajectory intact with help from slightly higher Jobless Claims data, and especially from traders exiting bets on higher rates. In the bond market, the simple act of "no longer betting on higher rates" forces a trader to effectively enter a bet on lower rates.

November 3, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch From 8% to Under 7.5%, Mortgage Rates Had a Near-Record Week The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was over 8% as recently as October 19th. At the start of the present week, things weren't much better at 7.92%. What a difference a few days make--especially the last 3. The improvement... (read more) MBS Commentary Bonds Shoot The Moon After Lackluster Jobs Report There was a lot riding on this morning's jobs report. It was in an ideal position to cast a vote on this week's bullish correction. A big beat was likely to undo much of the strength seen over the previous 2 days. A big miss was lik... (read more) Rob Chrisman HELOC, Broker Pricing, LOS, Servicing Retention Products; Training and Webinars; STRATMOR on Tech The upcoming credit price changes were not discussed yesterday at the counter in Paul’s Pancake Parlor here in Missoula, but they might have been. As well as the resignation of NAR’s CEO… are there cracks in the powerful NAR empire? One thing that di... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.38% -0.13% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.38% -0.13 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.75% -0.30 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.71% -0.14 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.75% -0.12 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.08% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.70% -0.18 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/3 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% -0.30% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.76% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 7.03% 0.00 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/2 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.86% -0.04 0.73 15 Yr. Fixed 7.14% +0.06 1.22 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.80% +0.02 0.67 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/1 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 99.09 +0.69 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 99.09 +0.69 UMBS 6.5 100.84 +0.52 GNMA 6.0 99.66 +0.59 GNMA 6.5 100.89 +0.31 Pricing as of: 11/3 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.5740 -0.0890 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.843 -0.153 5 YR Treasury 4.504 -0.137 7 YR Treasury 4.564 -0.120 10 YR Treasury 4.574 -0.089 30 YR Treasury 4.767 -0.033 Pricing as of: 11/3 5:31PM EST Latest Video Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin: I would like to see inflation continuing... U.S. payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, less than expected Douglas Elliman CEO on lawsuits, housing headwinds and debate over brokerag... Consumer's credit scores have held up despite putting on more debt Around the Web redfin Housing Market Update: A Record Share of Home Sellers Drop Prices As High Rates Cut Into Buyers’ Budgets Eye on Housing Job Growth Slows in October Good News for Interest Rates CNBC U.S. payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, less than expected Marketwatch Interest rate cuts? Hopes for a Fed policy pivot resurface, sparking a surge in a popular Treasury bond fund CNBC Here's where the jobs are for October 2023 in one chart CNBC Bad news for the economy is good news for the stock market... as long as it doesn't get too bad CNBC Here's what to watch in Friday's big October jobs report Realtor.com National Association of Realtors CEO quits earlier than expected after federal lawsuit loss CNBC Cooling job market no reason for panic yet, say economists: 'It's a slowdown, not a collapse' Marketwatch Fed's Barkin says October data shows gradual cooling of job market Calculated Risk Realtor.com Reports Weekly New Listings UP 5.6% YoY; Active Inventory Down 1.0% YoY CNBC 2-year Treasury yield rises as investors await key jobs data CNBC Europe stocks to open higher, head for best week since March after central bank pauses

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