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Good morning from Berlin.

This is the last edition of The Capitals newsletter for 2024. Euractiv’s team wishes you a Happy New Year, and we will see you again on 6 January.

Europe is entering 2025 amid numerous challenges, but if we were pressed to name a potential game-changer, the German elections in February would be it. 

Domestic conditions, though, are not ideal for the largest Eurozone member: an economy in recession, high energy prices, an ailing car industry, and public investment shackled by a constitutional borrowing limit.

Externally, Donald Trump’s trade plans may affect Germany’s export-driven economy. 

Reporting from Berlin, Euractiv’s Nick Alipour writes that the times resemble Gerhard Schröder’s chancellorship. A Social Democrat, Schröder took a right-wing turn with the ‘Agenda 2010’.

Today, his agenda inspires the centre-right CDU/CSU and lead candidate Friedrich Merz, who wants to develop an ‘Agenda 2030’ that includes tax and benefit cuts, deregulation, and law and order.

However, the numbers needed to form a coalition are not helpful. Recent polls suggest an unprecedented make-up of the Bundestag with the progressive Die Linke (Left) and the FDP, a frequent coalition partner of the CDU/CSU, likely to crash out.

This would boost anti-establishment parties AfD and Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and force the CDU/CSU into coalitions with the SPD or Greens.

However, implementing the ‘Agenda 2030’ with either of them faces significant challenges.

Looking back at Europe's defining moments of 2024
Click on the picture to read the story |  [Esther Snippe for Euractiv. Photo credit: Getty Images, Shutterstock]

Listen to a special episode of Today in the EU, in which host Giada Santana is joined by Euractiv's publisher René Moerland and editors Anna Brunetti and Donagh Cagney to unpack the stories that made 2024 unforgettable.

Amplify your voice in the EU policy landscape with a trusted media partner.

Euractiv Advocacy Lab brings together expert reporters, creative multimedia and event producers to craft narratives and spark policy debates that drive inclusive conversations with key EU stakeholders. Find out more
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In other news from Europe
Click on the picture to read the story |  [Yavuz Ozden/ dia images via Getty Images]

Turkey’s growing influence in Syria’s situation since the fall of Bashar al-Assad has raised eyebrows in Greece and Cyprus, as Ankara reportedly wants to demarcate maritime zones with the new rulers in Damascus.

Europe is directly impacted as it searches for Russian gas alternatives, and the demarcation of maritime zones will unlock crucial energy projects. This occurs in the context of fierce competition among regional players, while Europe's position remains fragile. 

Greece hopes to have its Israel-style ‘Iron Dome’ ready in 2026, Deputy Minister of Defense Yiannis Kefalogiannis said on Thursday. 

The minister said, “We are currently discussing the specifications, the corresponding tender procedures will be carried out, and we believe that within two years, we will be ready to fully develop the dome.”  

According to the minister, the dome will be detention-focused and will prevent any aerial threat (drone or ballistic missile) and will also be anti-ship, blocking anything from entering Greek territory.

Local reports suggest that the Greek side has favoured the Israeli weapons systems of two companies (Israel Aerospace Industries and Rafael), while the cost is estimated at €2 billion. 

Troubled relations with neighbouring Turkey combined with the turmoil in the Middle East and Russia’s war in Ukraine pushed forward the idea for an Iron Dome.

On the foreign policy front, Finnish authorities on Thursday seized a ship carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea on suspicion it caused the outage of an undersea power cable connecting Finland and Estonia a day earlier and suspicions it also damaged four internet lines. 

The EU issued a statement condemning “any deliberate destruction of Europe’s critical infrastructure” and vowing sanctions.

“The suspected vessel is part of Russia’s shadow fleet, which threatens security and the environment while funding Russia’s war budget. We will propose further measures, including sanctions, to target this fleet”, the statement reads.

In addition, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, an outspoken opponent of EU support for Ukraine, offered up his country to host talks between Russia and Ukraine. 

Meanwhile, Russian air defences downed an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people, four sources with knowledge of the preliminary findings of Azerbaijan's investigation into the disaster told Reuters on Thursday.

Last but not least, 2024 was a bad year for migrants, according to the Spanish migrant rights group Caminando Fronteras. Particularly, 10,457 people died in their effort to reach Spain, representing a 58% increase compared to 2023. 

Moreover, the report suggests that the Atlantic route towards the Canary Islands remains the deadliest: “70,51% of the tragedies documented among people travelling in wooden boats from West Africa occurred among those who had departed from Mauritania, which became the main departure point on the route to the Canary Islands in 2024”.

***

[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Alice Taylor-Braçe, Charles Szumski]

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