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| Wednesday, June 12, 2024 |
| We're dealing with another significant injury to a star player, so we'll kick off Wednesday's newsletter with that. J.T. Realmuto is set to undergo a meniscectomy in his right knee to alleviate pain caused by a torn meniscus that he has been playing through. Realmuto is expected to miss about a month recovering from the surgery, and it may explain why he was just 2 for 24 with 10 strikeouts in his past six games before going on the IL. |
| It's a big blow, even if Realmuto has been somewhat disappointing this season; he was still a consensus top-five catcher in the rankings and had actually just finished up a pretty terrific May where he hit .318/.356/.471 in 20 games. And now, you're left looking for a replacement for at least the next month – though as CBS Sports' Dayn Perry noted Tuesday, this procedure often carries more like a 6-8 week timetable. |
| If you're in a shallower one-catcher league, go check and see if Logan O'Hoppe or Francisco Alvarez are available, as they're both roasted in fewer than 80% of CBS Fantasy leagues right now. I prefer Alvarez, but both bring rare power potential to the table and should be solid, useful starters in Realmuto's absence. You could also consider Shea Langeliers or Tyler Stephenson, both of whom could be especially useful in points leagues, given the playing time edge they have over most catchers (though Langeliers' poor plate discipline does hurt him in that format, for what it's worth). |
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| For those of you in deeper leagues where you have to start multiple catchers, I'd be looking at Patrick Bailey (30% rostered), Keibert Ruiz (28%), or Ivan Herrera (20%), the latter of whom is filling in for another injured, must-start catcher, Willson Contreras. Bailey is my favorite of that group. He's an elite defensive catcher, so playing time shouldn't be an issue, and he's managed to cut his strikeout rate down to 20% while simultaneously improving his quality of contact, leading to real breakout potential; Bailey actually has the second-best expected wOBA of any catcher this season at .362. His .280 average may not be a fluke. |
| If none of them are available, the pickings are incredibly slim, but I still think there's some upside with Tyler Soderstrom. He's barely playing catcher but has played fairly regularly at first base for the A's. He isn't doing much with his opportunities yet, but Soderstrom remains a top-100 prospect who has produced at the highest level of the minors, so if I'm going to bet on any long shot, it'll be that one. |
| The truth is, there's probably no replacing Realmuto, of course. Not with anyone on the waiver wire at least. Your best bet might be to try to swing a buy-low trade for someone like Sean Murphy, who hasn't done much yet this season but remains one of the most talented hitters at the position. He shouldn't cost much and might be the most realistically attainable replacement who might help you forget Realmuto, at least for a little while. |
| There are few good answers for replacing a difference maker like Realmuto at a position like a catcher, but we can try. In the rest of today's newsletter, we're going to break down the rest of Tuesday's biggest news, plus some of the standout performances from around the league: |
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| Wednesday's top waiver targets |
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| Drew Thorpe, SP, White Sox (38%) – Thorpe mostly looked as expected in his MLB debut. The changeup was terrific, and he threw it more than any other pitch, generating eight whiffs on 19 swings. Everything else? He averaged 91.3 mph with his fastball and got four whiffs with his non-changeup pitches, which is to say, it all mostly looks pretty average. Thorpe is a high-floor pitching prospect, but that floor sags under the weight of all the futility surrounding him on the White Sox. I think Thorpe is worth adding in most 12-team leagues, but I don't expect him to be much of a difference-maker. |
| Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox (55%) – Yoshida is a tough player to value because his contact-heavy skill set works better in an H2H points context, where you care more directly about strikeouts and walks, but that's also the shallower format in Fantasy. The good news is, the state of the outfield position is so poor that Yoshida might be able to clear the bar for being worth starting even in that shallower format. He's back from his thumb injury and batted fifth Tuesday, and is worth adding in most formats. |
| Miles Mikolas, SP, Cardinals (35%) – Miles Mikolas will go through stretches where he looks fantastic and others where he looks completely useless, and sometimes, those stretches last for entire seasons. He's currently enjoying one of the good stretches, having recorded a quality start in five of his past six starts, including his seven shutout innings against the Pirates Tuesday. Even when things are going well, Mikolas is rarely an especially exciting pitcher, and he has just 29 strikeouts in 36 innings during that stretch to prove that point. |
| Andrew Vaughn , 1B, White Sox (32%) – I've pretty much given up on any hopes of Vaughn living up to his prospect hype, but that doesn't mean he can't be a useful player. He's been a mess this season, hitting way too many pop-ups and striking out too often, but if you squint, you can still see the makings of a useful Fantasy option. Vaughn hits the ball pretty hard pretty consistently, ranking in the 77th percentile in average exit velocity and the 67th percentile in hard-hit rate, and while his 24% strikeout rate is unseemly, he actually doesn't swing-and-miss as much as you'd expect, so there's reason to hope for better moving forward. Vaughn is starting to heat up, having hit safely in 11 straight games, batting .364 during that stretch with three homers and only eight strikeouts. |
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| News and Notes |
| Corey Seager remained out Tuesday with that left hamstring strain. He's now missed four straight games. |
| Bryan Woo was scratched from his start Tuesday and awaits MRI results on his right arm. He missed the first six weeks of the season with elbow inflammation and has dealt with some arm soreness here and there since. We don't have any details beyond that, but I don't love any of this. |
| Some Red Sox news: Rafael Devers returned to the lineup Tuesday, as did Yoshida, while Tyler O'Neill hopes to join them Wednesday. |
| Jurickson Profar was removed from Tuesday's game after suffering an apparent leg injury. |
| Randy Arozarena was scratched due to right hamstring tightness. |
| Zac Gallen threw a bullpen session Tuesday, his first time throwing off the mound since landing on the IL with a strained right hamstring. |
| Edwin Diaz won't be activated from the IL until Thursday now. |
| Jack Flaherty received an injection in his back Monday, is scheduled to play catch Wednesday, and is expected to start this weekend against the Astros, assuming no setbacks. |
| Kodai Senga threw a bullpen Sunday and will throw another one Wednesday. He's not expected back until after the All-Star break, and at this point, I'm just going to say anything positive we get out of him is a bonus at this point. |
| Bobby Miller will make another rehab start at Triple-A on Thursday and could be back from the IL after that. |
| Yainer Diaz has missed two straight with swelling on his finger. The Astros are hopeful Diaz will avoid the IL after an X-ray and MRI came back negative. |
| Max Muncy said Tuesday that he's not progressing as fast as he would like from his strained right oblique. He's still worth stashing, but I'm not sure if we should expect him back in June at this pace. |
| Nico Hoerner has now missed four straight with a small fracture in his right hand. He could be back in the lineup on Wednesday, but my expectations are way lower if he's going to play through this injury. This might be an excuse to cut him. |
| Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Triston Casas is fielding grounders but hasn't been cleared to swing a bat just yet. |
| Willson Contreras hit soft toss Tuesday and caught a bullpen session. This was the first time he's swung a bat since undergoing forearm surgery on May 9. |
| The Rockies elected not to activate Nolan Jones as the team determined Jones needs more time in the minors to find his proper swing. I'm still stashing him, but it's increasingly hard to justify. |
| Tommy Edman took batting practice on the field Tuesday for the first time since last October's right wrist surgery. He is 55% rostered, and has 2B/SS/OF eligibility if you want to stash |
| Reds manager David Bell said Christian Encarnacion-Strand is considering season-ending surgery to repair ligament damage in his right wrist. |
| Jorge Mateo was activated by the Orioles and they sent Connor Norby back to the minors. Mateo returned with a three-run homer off Max Fried Tuesday. |
| Ben Brown was placed on the IL with a neck strain. |
| Joseph Ortiz was scratched from the lineup with right hamstring soreness. |
| Gavin Williams will make his next rehab start Saturday and is expected to throw about four innings and 65 pitches. He's 62% rostered and is a decent stash, though expectations should mostly be low, given his elbow injury. |
| Hunter Renfroe was placed on the IL with a broken big toe. Nick Pratto was recalled, but he needs to show something before we look his way. |
| Ben Lively returned to Cleveland Monday to get some tests done and apparently has checked out fine. He's expected to make his next turn through the rotation. |
| Taylor Ward exited Tuesday's game early with lower back tightness. |
| Tuesday's standouts |
| Paul Skenes, Pirates @STL: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – Does Skenes belong in the top 12 among starting pitchers? I'm not quite ready to go there yet, but he's not far off – in my latest rankings update, he's SP17, but the gap between him and my SP10 (Dylan Cease) is just 11 spots in the overall rankings. Among pitchers with at least 30 innings this season, only one ( Fernando Cruz) has a higher K-BB% than Skenes' current 30.8% rate, and he's got a deep arsenal full of swing-and-miss pitches to call on; Skenes more than doubled his season total of curveballs thrown with 20 Tuesday, and he generated four whiffs with the pitch. He's the most hyped pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg , and Skenes is absolutely living up to the hype right now. |
| Jesus Luzardo, Marlins @NYM: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – This was a nice bounceback start for Luzardo, and I do think he's a viable buy-low candidate, both because he should continue to pitch better moving forward and because he's almost certain to be traded to a more competitive team at some point soon. But I still have my concerns about Luzardo's chances of getting back to his 2023 level, mostly because his fastball velocity remains down more than 1 mph, and that might be enough to take the pitch from "pretty good" to "downright bad." His changeup and slider remain incredibly effective, but the overall package right now just doesn't look as appealing as it did last season. |
| Zach Eflin, Rays vs. CHC: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – Where's the curveball? Eflin got three of his six whiffs Tuesday with that pitch, and he still threw it just nine times; it was his best pitch last season and he's gone from throwing it 26% of the time to just 18% of the time this season. I want to have faith that Eflin can make the necessary tweaks to get back to last year, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't losing faith. |
| Ronel Blanco, Astros @SF: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – I continue to expect the wheels to come off for Blanco at some point, and this start might represent another opportunity to sell him. If you can't, I'm not saying Blanco is going to turn back into waiver-wire fodder, but I don't expect him to be a must-start guy moving forward with less than a strikeout per inning, middling control (3.6 BB/9), and a fairly average contact skill set. Add it all up, and I think he's more likely to be a 4.00-ish ERA pitcher, so yeah, I'm trying to sell. |
| Brady Singer, Royals vs. NYY: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Singer has been one of the more pleasant surprises of this season, but it's always felt like it was going to end in tears; his 2.75 ERA was not at all backed up by a 4.50 xERA entering this start. And, wouldn't you know it, the Yankees took care of a ton of regression all at once, as his ERA is up to 3.30 now. There's more regression where that came from, and while Singer has been more than solid this season, I do view him as pretty expendable moving forward, if you see someone on the waiver-wire who draws your eyes. |
| Cal Quantrill , Rockies @MIN: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Despite this impressive outing and some solid overall results, I don't think Quantrill is really someone who should draw your eye. It's a shame, too, because I do think he could potentially be a pretty interesting pitcher in a different context, thanks in large part to increased usage of what has been a very good splitter. The problem is he pitches half his games in Coors Field, surrounded by one of the worst teams in baseball. Quantrill could be more than just a streamer in a different context; in this one, I'd only consider starting him on the road. |
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