New components in the EU's changing Israel equation The EU faces internal rifts in its stance on Israel as new leadership and shifting US policies could reshape the Middle East strategy. Outgoing EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell on Monday (18 November) is expected to put on the table a proposal to formally suspend political dialogue with Israel due to its human rights violations in Gaza, people familiar with the matter told Euractiv earlier this week. It will be the first time EU foreign ministers hold a formal discussion on Israel’s behaviour and is expected to lay bare the bloc's division on the issue. Discussions on the matter have so far been contentious, as the EU is split between staunch Israel supporters — such as Hungary, Czech Republic or Austria — and more critical members, such as Spain and Ireland, on the other hand. For some, Borrell's criticism of Israel's military campaign in Gaza put him at odds with the country and has deepened the already gaping divisions in the EU's stance on the Middle East. To others, his often outward rebuke of Tel Aviv's actions balanced the absence of a clear condemnation from any European leader or European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's reluctance to condemn Israel's actions. But with Borrell leaving office in a week and a new incoming US administration, many expect a change in the bloc's approach towards the region. A key question will be how the EU's next chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, who has yet to take a strong stance, will approach Israel when she takes over from Borrell. When she was prime minister, her Estonian government increased its funding for humanitarian aid to Gaza. She also backed a United Nations resolution to upgrade the Palestinian territory observer state status to full membership, despite Tallinn not officially recognising Palestine as a state. Most diplomats from EU member states expect her to be a consensus builder rather than someone who puts their own positions upfront. Israeli diplomats see her as a fresh start compared to her predecessor, whom they described as an "outspoken critic" who they felt had been unfair in his criticism of their country. They also hope she could be a strong ally against Iran, which is increasingly openly aiding Russia's war in Ukraine, especially as Kallas promised a “new approach” towards Tehran that could see a review of the EU's current Iran policy. While Tel Aviv hopes ties will improve under Kallas, Arab diplomats, meanwhile, expect her to adopt a balanced approach and continue the bloc's existent line, making a case for international law to be respected in the Middle East, as in the case for Ukraine. Most EU diplomats Euractiv spoke to, however, agree that no matter whether Borrell or Kallas, member states are unlikely to overcome disunity on the bloc's Middle East policy. And while Europe is divided, the United States might soon be another factor in the EU's Middle East equation. President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet picks are the Israeli far-right movement’s dream come true. While pro-Israel views are largely common in US politics, Trump’s selection signals support for far-right Israeli aspirations and could mean that we could see the most pro-Israel US administration so far. Trump has announced a series of people who either explicitly support Israel's illegal settlement policy or even West Bank annexation, and reject any criticism of Israel. In addition, Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, has been nominated as Washington's ambassador to Israel. In the past, Huckabee has said he does not believe in the West Bank as a concept and that Palestinians as a people are not real. Trump, however, in his campaign also promised to 'bring peace' to the region, a pledge he first raised during his first term in office, but that did not materialise. Analysts believe that this time around, Trump wants to ensure that the wars in the region are drawn to a rapid close, which could also mean allowing Israel to have a free hand to wage total war against Gaza, Lebanon and forces viewed as Iranian proxies across the Middle East. The EU's recent push to restart the talks on a future two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, unanimously supported by EU foreign ministers in January, and most recent initiatives, risk running into a wall. | 