Six months on, Gaza diplomacy
faces fork in the road Six months into Israel's war in Gaza, the patience of Tel Aviv's allies and foes is running out. On 6 October, Israel appeared to be on the path to normalising diplomatic relations with the Muslim world, getting close to a peace deal with Saudi Arabia. But this all changed six months ago on 7 October, with the bloody Hamas attack. Since the shocking terrorist attack, the outpouring of global sympathy after the worst killings of Jews since the Holocaust has since dwindled. Israel's military made a rare admission of wrongdoing and said it was firing two officers over the killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza. The killing of these aid workers has angered even some of Israel's closest allies, summing up both the dire humanitarian crisis and the lack of a clear way out of a conflict, that is leaving Israel increasingly isolated. Multiple international organisations have warned that Israel may be committing genocide and even the country’s closest allies are now openly criticising Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While Israel acknowledged the strike was a fatal error carried out by its forces, it has done little to ease growing concerns abroad. Public opinion even in traditionally friendly countries like Britain and Germany is slowly swinging against the Israeli campaign in Gaza. Calls to halt arms shipments to Israel are increasing in the US and the UK. Washington has warned Israel that it would be crossing a red line if it were to invade Rafah, the Gazan city that borders Egypt, without American approval. US President Joe Biden in a call with Netanjahu, urged an "immediate ceasefire" and for the first time hinted at making US support for Israel conditional on curtailing the killing of civilians and improving humanitarian conditions. American and Israeli negotiators, as well as a Hamas delegation, are expected to fly to Cairo for a fresh round of indirect Gaza ceasefire talks as the war reaches the half-year mark on Sunday (7 Apil).
CIA Director William Burns, Head of Mossad David Barnea, and negotiators from Egypt and Qatar are expected to attend the talks, but hopes for a breakthrough are slim. From the Israeli perspective, it is hard to see how Tel Aviv can achieve its goals of destroying Hamas and rescuing the remaining hostages. Six months into this conflict, neither goal has been reached. If Hamas remains in power, continues to hold hostages, and poses an ongoing threat to Israel, this will be unacceptable to Jerusalem. Netanjahu himself is facing a growing protest movement with demands for new elections, opinion polls indicate he would lose heavily. From the Palestinian perspective, if Israeli troops remain in Gaza, there will be no tangible plan to rebuild the devastated territory, and no political solution on the horizon for an independent Palestinian state, which will not be acceptable to the Palestinian people. Hopes of a breakthrough that could secure a pause in the fighting have repeatedly been dashed, with Hamas leaders saying they can keep fighting for much longer. According to a February 2024 US Annual Threat Assessment report, Hamas will be able to continue as a “lingering armed resistance (…) for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralise Hamas’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength, and surprise Israeli forces.” Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah just told his followers they can be sure that Iran will avenge the deaths. “Iran will seek to use the conflict in Gaza to denounce Israel, decry its role in the region, and try to dissuade other Middle Eastern states from warming ties with Israel,” the report stated. For the moment, the Abraham Accords, a series of treaties normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, are holding. But many in the region see any further Arab-Israeli rapprochement as difficult, the more images of suffering from Gaza enrage Arab populations across the Middle East. Israel's normalising relations with Saudi Arabia are on hold, while ties with Arab allies such as Egypt and Jordan become frayed. Egypt, where hatred and fear of Hamas run deep, is walking a tightrope between being a mediator and keeping its population's growing support for a more radical stance towards Israel at bay. While in Jordan, one of only two countries that has a peace treaty with Israel, tensions increase along with the death toll in Gaza. In Lebanon, there is growing fear that the presumed Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, this week, could spark widening the current conflict. Amid all of this, top Western, Israeli, and Arab officials are seeking to forge parallel but related deals that could end the war in Gaza, clarify its postwar status, and set commitments for the creation of a Palestinian state. | 