The trials of the next Enlargement Commissioner For the majority of EU hopeful candidates, next to their own reform and alignment efforts, the next five years will depend on how the European Commission and member states decide to approach enlargement. Next week might give some answers. The outgoing EU executive will still be responsible for presenting the last enlargement reports of this term in mid-October, according to sources familiar with the matter. Those usually extensive and detailed technical documents could, this time, indicate which EU hopefuls have made considerable progress to move forward in the next institutional cycle. While the expectation is that the language will be positive for Ukraine and Moldova, whose screening of national legislation should conclude in early 2025, some Western Balkan countries could also see some movement in their progress this autumn. Montenegro could hope to close some negotiation chapters after its new government gave momentum and perspective towards domestic reforms. Albania possibly looks like they can start de facto accession talks this autumn, EU officials say, by decoupling from North Macedonia, which remains held back by Bulgarian demands for changes to its constitution and Sofia’s otherwise messy domestic situation. Georgia, meanwhile, is looking towards decisive parliamentary elections on 26 October, which could either bring it back on its EU path or derail ties with the bloc further after Brussels froze high-level visits and military aid to Tbilisi over the recently passed Russian-style ‘foreign influence’ law. Enter the new Enlargement Commissioner. As Euractiv reported a few months ago, the post is expected to be upgraded to reflect the greater political relevance of the portfolio, with enlargement and neighbourhood policies split up. The latest leaks before European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s announcement next week suggest the portfolio will be titled ‘Enlargement and Ukraine reconstruction’. Latvian Valdis Dombrovskis is currently a frontrunner for the post, according to sources familiar with the matter, due to his technocrat skills, patience and his country’s staunch support for the bloc’s Eastern neighbourhood. His extensive economic background could come in handy to address the woes of reconstruction, which is expected to be a mammoth task for the years to come. The Commissioner-designate’s mission letter, which outlines von der Leyen’s task of her pick, could indicate when the next EU expansion might happen. Top EU officials, over the past two and a half years, have argued that the current geopolitical situation meant it was necessary to speed up procedures, which the previous Juncker Commission essentially halted, resulting in almost a decade of stagnation. Beyond who will be the next enlargement boss, the bloc faces a fundamental challenge for the next five years: how to match its ambitions with reality when expanding and taking in new members. This will influence negotiations on the EU’s next long-term budget in autumn, and it will talk about political reforms and how to make the bloc function with potentially 35 plus members one day, which is expected in the next years. Possibly, a radical change in how the EU operates is needed. Enter two former Italian technocrat prime ministers, who have teased delivering at least some solutions for those questions. With some EU member states and sectors likely to be exposed more than others by the EU’s future enlargement rounds, Enrico Letta proposed earlier this year that a new fund is needed to compensate for imbalances. Mario Draghi’s highly anticipated report on the bloc’s competitiveness, which will be presented on Monday (9 September), could offer further ideas. | 