| |
|
| Tuesday, June 18, 2024 |
| The Cubs have to do something different in their bullpen. I'm just not sure what that is. |
| Hector Neris blew another save Monday, his fourth of the season since taking over for Adbert Alzolay (who blew five before going on the IL). It's been a pretty disastrous season for Neris, who has 20 walks to 24 strikeouts in his 26.2 innings of work, with his ERA already up to 4.73. He can't stay the closer for long like this, and typically, we'd be looking for someone to speculate on as the alternative for Fantasy … except I'm not sure there's anyone you should have any faith in here. |
| The Cubs bullpen blew an excellent start by Javier Assad, and it wasn't just Neris' fault. Hayden Wesneski walked four while allowing two runs in one inning of work, and then Mark Leiter Jr. allowed a run in the eighth to get the Giants within two runs before Neris took it from there. Leiter's ERA is up to 4.50, while Wesneski has a 5.51 mark in 16.1 innings since moving to the bullpen full-time in mid-May. Maybe journeymen like Drew Smyly (3.52 ERA, 4.37 FIP) or Tyson Miller (0.69, 3.00) could be options, but neither has the track record or stuff teams typically look for in the ninth inning. |
| Which is to say, while Neris seems like he shouldn't be long for the closer's role in Chicago, they might not have a replacement worth pivoting to. And, at least in the immediate aftermath of Monday's disaster, it doesn't sound like Craig Counsell is ready to make any move there. And I'm not sure Fantasy players need to be, either. |
| It's a bad situation, and one the Cubs kind of just have to hope gets better on its own – it doesn't really make sense to trade prospect capital to try to fix the bullpen for a last-place team, does it? So, if you have Neris on your team, you might just need to hold him and hope he figures it out. That might be the Cubs' best hope, too. As bleak as that sounds. |
| You won't find much help in the Cubs bullpen on the waiver wire, unfortunately, but we've got some other options that might be worth adding to our recap of the rest of Monday's action: |
| |
| Tuesday's top waiver targets |
| |
| Reese Olson, SP, Tigers (64%) – Olson entered his start against the Braves Monday stuck in the worst slump of his career, having allowed 17 runs in his previous three starts. So, of course, he went out and shut out an offense that suddenly sprang back to life this weekend. There wasn't a huge change in Olson's approach here – a few more curveballs, mostly at the expense of a few fastballs – so it really comes down to execution. He generated 11 swinging strikes with his changeup and slider, and he probably just needs to lean as heavily as he can on those two pitches, as they remain by far his best options. Olson's two high-whiff-rate pitches give him solid upside if he can get to two-strike counts consistently, and that's what we saw in this one. I'm skeptical he'll pitch this well most times out, but he gets the White Sox, Angels, and Twins in his next two starts, so he might just be able to carry this over a few more times. |
| Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals (60%) – Winn had, unfortunately, slowed down since his promotion to the leadoff spot, hitting just .233/.250/.343 with an elevated strikeout rate out of the top spot in the lineup for the season. But I still believed in the skill set, and he rewarded that faith with a 2-for-6 performance with a clutch homer late in Monday's win over the Marlins. He's still striking out a bit too much of late – three times in this one – but I have faith in Winn's contact skills to turn that around in that regard. This is a high-average player with speed and more power than you think, a la what we hoped we'd be getting from someone like Nico Hoerner this season. |
| Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Red Sox (59%) – The overall numbers still aren't terribly impressive, but Rafaela's on a nice little hot streak that shows what he's capable of lately. Over his past 26 games, Rafaela is hitting .326 with four homers, four steals, and 34 combined runs and RBI – made all the more impressive on the counting stats front because he's still hitting ninth for the Red Sox. There's still far too much swing-and-miss in his game to believe Rafaela is really going to be helpful in batting average, but the power and speed upside is real, and his triple eligibility means he should be able to find a spot in your lineup somewhere in a Roto league. |
| Braxton Garrett, SP, Marlins (51%) – It's been an up-and-down season for Garrett, without even accounting for the shoulder injury that delayed his debut until mid-May. He's had some absolutely brilliant showings, including a complete-game shutout of the Diamondbacks back in May, but he's also had some really stretches, like when he allowed 11 runs in 7.1 innings in his two starts prior to this one. However, he bounced back Monday against the Cardinals, limiting them to just one run over six innings of work, while leading with his slider and four-seamer, which have been two of his best swing-and-miss pitches this season. It's an exploitable matchup, for sure, but Garrett has been a valuable enough pitcher in the past that I don't want to just write it off – if he is getting back on track, he can certainly be a must-roster pitcher. |
| |
| News and Notes |
| Dave Roberts told reporters Monday the expectation is that Mookie Betts will be sidelined 6-8 weeks. That means he's likely out until around the start of August, which is pretty frustrating. You're stashing him, but if you're looking for some replacements for Betts, I wrote about that Sunday. |
| Gerrit Cole will officially make his season debut this Wednesday against the Orioles. In three rehab starts, he allowed 1 ER over 12.1 IP, striking out 19 while walking none. There's always risk with a pitcher coming back from an elbow injury, but the fact that it was a nerve issue rather than a ligament for Cole makes me hopeful he can be fine coming back. |
| Kyle Tucker may require a rehab assignment if he isn't able to begin running within the next few days. |
| The MRI on Corbin Carroll's left side revealed no significant damage. HGe should rejoin the lineup Tuesday against the Nationals. |
| Trea Turner returned to the Phillies lineup Monday, batting second. He finished 2-5 with a run scored in his first game back. |
| Jacob deGrom threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Monday, the first time he's thrown off a mound since he underwent Tommy John surgery last June. I think he's a long shot to provide much this season, but if you have an IL spot to play with and he's available, go ahead and stash him as long as his forward momentum continues. |
| |
| William Contreras didn't start Monday's game but was available to pinch-hit or enter the game defensively. He took a shot to the head on a play at the plate Sunday. Manager Pat Murphy said Contreras is going to be fine. |
| Bo Bichette has missed three straight with a right calf injury. He was available off the bench Monday but did not play. |
| Anthony Rizzo suffered a fracture to the radial neck of his right arm and could miss 4-6 weeks. DJ LeMahieu will probably slide over to first base with Oswaldo Cabrera at third, though the Yankees could very well be in line for an upgrade at either spot before the deadline now. |
| Yimi Garcia was placed on the IL due to right elbow ulnar neuritis. Chad Green will operate as the team's closer with Garcia and Jordan Romano still out. |
| Jordan Romano threw from 90-120 feet Monday and if his arm responds well, he'll throw off a mound Wednesday. He's been on the IL since June 1 with right elbow inflammation. |
| TJ Friedl left Monday with a hamstring injury. After the game manager David Bell said Friedl's hammy was "just tight," so hopefully it isn't too serious. But we'll keep an eye on it over the next few days. |
| Blake Snell is scheduled to throw a three-inning simulated game Tuesday, as he works his way back from a groin strain. I'm hoping we can see him back before the end of June. |
| Yu Darvish will make a rehab start Wednesday at High-A. He's on the IL with a left groin strain but could be back relatively soon. |
| Joe Musgrove is expected to play catch Wednesday or Thursday, which will mark the first time he's thrown since he went on the IL June 1 with a bone spur in his right elbow. |
| David Hamilton left Monday's game due to left side discomfort. |
| The Braves placed Hurston Waldrep on the IL Monday with right elbow inflammation. He'll be shut down from throwing for one week. |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand was transferred to the 60-day IL. He's been out since May 8 with a right ulnar styloid fracture. It's still possible he undergoes season-ending surgery. |
| Jose Soriano was scratched from his start Monday due to lower abdominal pain. Zach Plesac started in his place. |
| Ryan Weathers is asymptomatic but has yet to resume a throwing program. He's on the IL with a left index finger strain. |
| The Phillies optioned Johan Rojas back to Triple-A. Brandon Marsh started in center with David Dahl in left field Monday. |
| Yariel Rodriguez could start Friday for the Blue Jays. On his six-start rehab assignment, Rodriguez had a 1.93 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 23 K to 10 BB over 14 IP (6.4 BB/9). He remains an interesting pitcher, but not someone I think is necessarily a must-add before we see him back on the mound. |
| Prospect updates: |
| Diamondbacks shortstop prospect Jordan Lawlar is expected to miss 4-6 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain. Just brutal luck after missing most of the season with a thumb injury before this. |
| The Nationals promoted outfield prospect Dylan Crews from Double-A to Triple-A. |
| Monday's standouts |
| Paul Skenes, Pirates vs. CIN: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – You only have to look over at Skenes' rotation mate Jared Jones to see the perils of anointing someone as an ace after just one month, but I just don't see much reason to be skeptical of Skenes. He was a much more highly regarded pitching prospect than Jones ever was – arguably the most highly regarded since Stephen Strasburg – and all he's done since getting called up is dominate, and he's getting better, not worse. Skenes has 23 strikeouts to just two walks over his past three starts and has 53 to seven in his first seven starts overall. It's fair to wonder how long we can wait before we start talking about him as one of the best pitchers in baseball. We might be there already. |
| Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays vs. BOS: 4 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – It took a long time to get people to buy into Kikuchi, and I really hope he isn't spoiling that goodwill. Kikuchi hasn't been terrible this season, but it's been a bit of a rough ride lately, as he now has an 8.10 ERA over his past five starts. He still has 22 strikeouts to six walks in that span, and his velocity mostly looks fine, so I'm not worrying too much about it … yet. But then, I had more faith in him than most coming into the season. |
| Cristopher Sanchez , Phillies vs. SD: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Early on, it looked like Sanchez's control had regressed after his 2023 breakout, but he now has six straight starts with two or fewer walks. That's important because even though his velocity is up significantly year over year, Sanchez pitches to contact a bit too much to ever be more than an average strikeout pitcher. However, if his control is going to remain above average and he's going to remain an elite groundball pitcher, he can remain effective even without many strikeouts. This feels pretty easy to buy into after last season. |
| James Paxton, Dodgers @COL: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – In Coors Field??? Yep. Paxton entered this start with just 35 strikeouts to 33 walks on the season, so of course he went out and put up a line like this when he had probably his lowest start percentage of the season. It worked out if you did start him, but I'm still pretty skeptical that Paxton is going to be able to remain a viable starter moving forward unless this was, somehow, the start of a huge breakout. |
| Jon Gray, Rangers vs. NYM: 3 IP, 11 H, 9 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – Entering this start, Gray had an elite 2.17 ERA and a pretty mediocre 4.19 expected ERA, which means even his current 3.31 ERA has some room to regress after this one. His velocity looks fine since his return from a groin injury, but Gray has thrown just six innings combined in his first two starts back from the IL, and doesn't have a ton in the underlying numbers to be optimistic about. I'll need to see a lot from Gray in his next outing to keep him on my rosters. |
| Jordan Hicks, Giants @CHC: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – Hicks continues to limit runs, in a way that could remain sustainable given how hard he is to square up. The problem is, I'm not sure how valuable he is in Fantasy even with an ERA around 3.00. The biggest problem is he just doesn't pitch deep into games, with no starts of more than 5.1 innings since the end of April. That limits his strikeout upside and win potential in Roto leagues, and his overall value in points leagues – which should be his most valuable first given his RP eligibility. But if Hicks isn't going to ever qualify for quality starts and rarely have win potential, I'm just not sure how much he matters for Fantasy. He might be droppable in all 12-team leagues. |
| Austin Riley, 3B, Braves – Yeah, the buy-low window is officially closed. Riley didn't extend his homer streak to four games in this one, but he did continue to crush the ball, going 2 for 3 with a couple of doubles, and he's now up to a .291/.361/.545 line in June. He's been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past three years, and he looks like that guy again. Hope the slow start didn't spook you. |
| Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets – It feels like Lindor gets off to a slow start pretty much every season, and it just never seems to matter. He went 4 for 4 Monday and is now hitting .296/.381/.556 since the start of June with three homers and three steals in 14 games. Lindor actually has his best xwOBA since 2018 at .370, thanks in large part to a dip in strikeout rate to 15.9%, his lowest since 2020. He remains an elite Fantasy option, obviously. |
| Tyler O'Neill, OF, Red Sox – I noticed O'Neill got dropped in a few of my leagues this week, and I'm frustrated I was only able to add him in one. Skepticism was a reasonable response to O'Neill's incredible start to the season, but I just think that's who he is – the highs are going to be high, and the lows might be really, really low. But overall, I think he's going to remain an excellent source of power, and it was nice to see him get back on track with his two-homer game Monday against the Blue Jays. |
| |
| | | | | We Need To Talk | | WNBA | We Need To Talk is LIVE tonight at 9 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. Watch the FIRST-ever all women's sports show as its hosts discuss topics across the sports landscape.
Watch Live
| | Taurasi and Stewart face-off tonight as the New York Liberty take on the Phoenix Mercury TONIGHT on CBS Sports Network at 10 PM ET.
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
