| | | | Wednesday, April 10, 2024 | | I've used the word "attrition" a lot in the first 13 days of the season, because that's been the defining characteristic of the 2024 MLB season so far. But on Tuesday, it didn't apply. Because on Tuesday, we got an overdue injection of young talent, with the Orioles finally announcing the promotion of Jackson Holliday, the No. 1 prospect in baseball. | | I say "finally" because it was long overdue, even if Holliday only ended up spending about two weeks down in the minors. Ostensibly sent down to work on second base defense and to prove himself against lefties, I don't actually buy the company line that he had anything he actually needed to work on down at Triple-A. But, if there were any lingering questions, the 20-year-old answered them emphatically by hitting .342/.490/.605 in his first nine games of the season, with 11 walks and only nine strikeouts. | | He's going to play second base everyday for the Orioles, and if you play in one of the 10% of CBS Fantasy leagues where he isn't already rostered, Holliday becomes the obvious, no-doubt-about-it waiver-wire target of the day and/or week. Holliday shot through the Orioles minor-league system, playing 154 games total since he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft, hitting .321/.452/.497 with 15 homers and 29 steals. I think there might be an adjustment period for Holliday when it comes to hitting for power, though even that might already be developing – he sported a 93 mph average exit velocity in Triple-A this season, up from 90.6 mph when tracked last season. | | | | Which is to say, Holliday might just be the kind of preternaturally gifted young player who can make an immediate impact for Fantasy. His progression from scrawny, high-schooler to where he is now has been incredibly rapid, and while I wouldn't be surprised if there were some growing pains, I also can't say I'm betting against him, either. He's going to be the 20th player in the past decade to debut before his 21st birthday, and just the seventh to debut before the end of April of their age-20 season. | | Of course, it's not all good news, as we had another couple of pitchers placed on the IL with elbow injuries: Nick Pivetta, Framber Valdez, and Josiah Gray . The hope right now is neither Pivetta nor Valdez's injury is going to be a serious long-term issue, but they'll be out at least the next two weeks – and the way this season has gone, we can't just assume they'll be back in the minimum time either. | | Which means we're still on the hunt for more pitching replacements, as we have been seemingly everyday so far this season. We'll have some in the waiver-wire portion of today's newsletter, and we've got the rest of the standouts and news from Tuesday's MLB action. But before we get to all of that, make sure you check out Scott White's IL stash rankings piece here, because you might have some tough decisions to make about your rosters at this point – in one league, I've got eight guys on the IL, with only five IL spots to play with. It's tough out there. | | | | Tuesday's top waiver targets | | | | Shea Langeliers, C, Athletics (22%) – Langeliers had done almost nothing in his first nine games of the season, but he made up for lost time in a huge way Tuesday, with three homers against the Rangers . And they weren't cheapies, either, as all three came off the bat at 102.6 mph or harder and traveled at least 400 feet. It's worth keeping in mind that, though he was largely a Fantasy afterthought in the preseason (250.9 ADP as the No. 21 catcher), Langeliers did hit 22 homers in 490 plate appearances last year, so there's legit pop here. He needs to strike out less than his 29% rate last season and he's cut that to 25% here in the early going, which is nice to see. He's just a No. 2 catcher, but one with a path to a top-12 finish if he can keep that strikeout rate down. | | Michael Kopech, RP, White Sox (36%) – Saves are going to be relatively hard to come by in Chicago's bullpen, but I really, really like what we've seen from Kopech so far in his high-leverage relief role. He struck out four over two perfect innings Tuesday against the Guardians, racking up seven whiffs while throwing his fastball on 23 of 24 pitches. His velocity is way up – to 100.4 mph Tuesday – and I legitimately think there might be 100-strikeout upside, which can help cover up for where the saves might be lacking. | | Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Astros (2%) – With Framber Valdez placed on the IL with elbow inflammation, the Astros are calling up their top pitching prospect from Triple-A. Arrighetti had an ERA north of 4.00 in both Double-A and Triple-A last season, with his strikeout rate collapsing once he got to the higher level, which is a bit of a concern. But he had pretty consistently posted strikeout rates in the 30% or higher range prior to that, thanks in large part to a fastball with good movement profiles and a very good sweeper. He also has a curveball, cutter and a changeup in his arsenal, so while there has always been some relief risk in the profile, he does have a starter's repertoire, at least. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach in most mixed leagues, but I'm very interested to see what the rookie can do when he makes his debut Wednesday against the Royals, and I don't mind throwing a low-dollar bid out there in daily FAB leagues just in case he shines. | | Oscar Colas, OF, White Sox (3%) – Colas had a ton of hype when he made his MLB debut last season, and he was just terrible – .216/.257/.314 in 75 games with just five homers and a 27% strikeout rate. But the thing is, he still hit pretty well at Triple-A, and he's getting the call back to the White Sox with a career .290/.356/.489 line at that level. The White Sox are desperate for offensive help having now lost Luis Robert (hip), Eloy Jimenez (adductor), and Yoan Moncada (adductor), and Colas might be the only hope they've got. I'm not sure he'll play everyday, but it would be a little surprising if he didn't, and in deeper leagues, he's worth a look, just in case. | | Martin Perez, SP, Pirates (33%) – Yesterday, I wrote about how Tyler Anderson is turning back the clocks to his very successful 2022 campaign, and Perez is doing something similar in the early going here. I have even less faith in Perez keeping it up than Anderson, but he does have a 1.89 ERA through three starts after giving up just one earned run in 8 innings to the Tigers Tuesday. He's still throwing a bunch of sinkers, complemented by a bevy of secondaries of varying quality, and relies on good results on balls in play and a lot of called strikes to succeed. But right now, it's working for him, and you might be desperate enough to need Perez as a short-term fill-in. As long as those are your expectations, you should be fine. | | Edward Olivares , OF, Pirates (9%) – I'll admit, I've always liked Olivares more than I can honestly say is rational. He's always hit in the minors, and has been productive enough when given a chance in the majors that I've always been confused by why he hasn't gotten more opportunities – he's a career .262/.312/.427 hitter in the majors, with a 162-game average of 17 homers and 10 steals. He's getting a chance to play pretty consistently with the Pirates so far, and after his two-homer game Tuesday is hitting .321/.367/.679 in eight games. Olivares has pretty good contact skills and pretty good pop, and might just be a pretty good player on a team that is finally letting him play. I like him in deeper categories leagues. | | Colton Cowser , OF, Orioles (32%) – For the sake of Fantasy players everywhere, I hope the Orioles make a consolidation trade at some point, because they simply have too many good players and not nearly enough lineup spots for them. Cowser is a top-50 prospect who posted a .909 OPS in his minor-league career, but Tuesday was just the third start of the season for him. Of course, he went 2 for 4 with two doubles and four RBI, and might be a must-start Fantasy option if he got an everyday job. He might be able to force the team's hand in that regard if he keeps hitting like this, and if you have a roster spot to play with, you can do worse than stashing a high-upside bat like Cowser. | | | | News and Notes | | Trevor Story will undergo season-ending surgery Friday to repair a fractured glenoid in his left shoulder. The recovery timetable for the surgery is six months, and it's just another brutal injury for a guy who has been unable to stay healthy since joining the Red Sox. Ceddanne Rafaela will see some playing time at second base and shortstop going forward, a change in the club's public stance in recent days. Cora also said Vaughn Grissom could see some time at shortstop when he returns from his groin injury. | | Jordan Romano (elbow) is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Thursday and could be activated soon after that if all goes well. I'm hoping to have him back by next week. | | Max Scherzer completed a bullpen Tuesday and is expected to throw live batting practice next week. Scherzer could be back sometime in May if things go well. | | Kyle Bradish joined High-A Frederick on Tuesday and will begin a rehab assignment there soon. He was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL early in spring training, so there's still a lot that could go wrong here. | | CJ Abrams was back in the lineup Tuesday after missing three games with a bone bruise on his left pinky, and he hit a massive homer off lefty Kyle Harrison, his second off a lefty this season; he had just three all last season. | | J.T. Realmuto left Tuesday night after taking a slider that bounced off the plate and hit him in the neck. He'll be evaluated again Wednesday. | | Robert Stephenson threw a live bullpen session and is close to a rehab assignment. He started the season on the IL due to right shoulder soreness, but could challenge Carlos Estevez for the closer job if Estevez stumbles. | | JD Martinez is dealing with tightness in his lower back and received an injection for the injury. He'll be sidelined for up to five days, so I'd be surprised if we saw him next week, either. He's not a must-stash player. | | Geraldo Perdomo underwent surgery to repair a torn right meniscus and will need about a month to recover and rehab. | | Jonathan India was back in the lineup Tuesday after being scratched Monday with a leg contusion. | | Yoan Moncada was removed Tuesday with a left adductor strain. He was replaced by Nicky Lopez, and the White Sox might just be the worst lineup in baseball with Moncada, Luis Robert, and Eloy Jimenez all hurt. | | Julio Teheran was designated for assignment after just one start with the Mets. It appears Jose Butto will start in Teheran's place Saturday against the Royals. | | Tuesday standouts | | Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers @MIN: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 14 K – With Spencer Strider out of the picture for the time being, you can make a case that Glasnow is the best pitcher in Fantasy right now for as long as he stays healthy. | | George Kirby, Mariners @TOR: 4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – Kirby threw 30 pitches with two strikes last night, and 20 of them were in the strike zone. I think that kind of sums up why Kirby may not live up to the high hopes some – I'm not sure he has the pure stuff to get whiffs in the strike zone, and he just doesn't seem that interested in risking walks for chases. He's going to be a good pitcher, better than he has been so far this season. But this is a good example of why I didn't view him as a legit ace coming into the season the way some Fantasy analysts did. | | Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays vs. SEA: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 8 K – I don't think you can expect either four walks or eight strikeouts from Bassitt in most starts, but it was still nice to see a bounceback from him after a tough start to the season. He had a tough start last year and ended up a must-start Fantasy option, and I don't see any reason to assume he won't continue to be one. | | Carlos Rodon, Yankees vs. MIA: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – I'm viewing Rodon as arguably the biggest sell-high candidate in Fantasy right now. This was a solid start in terms of results, but I think that was more about how bad Miami's offense is right now. He has a 1.72 ERA through three starts, but with underlying peripherals suggesting he's been incredibly lucky to achieve those results. Rodon just doesn't have his slider right now, and unless he finds it quickly, I think things are going to take a turn for the worse soon. | | Sonny Gray, Cardinals vs. PHI: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Making his first start of the season after coming back from a hamstring injury, Gray looked perfectly fine. His velocity was right in line with last year, and he had his full arsenal of pitches working. Gray isn't an ace, but he's a must-start pitcher as long as he's healthy. | | Cristian Javier, Astros @KC: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – I'm at a very similar place with Javier as I am with Rodon, where I just don't know how long he can sustain his current success. His velocity is down across the board, and he has just 13 strikeouts to nine walks in 16.1 innings of work. This new, changeup-heavy approach would be interesting if Javier still had his elite fastball, but I just don't see any sign of that returning after a tough 2023. I'd be trying to sell him if I could. | | Brayan Bello, Red Sox vs. BAL: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – With talk that he had reworked his slider this offseason, there was some hype around Bello, but he hasn't given us much reason to expect a big step forward. The slider has been a pretty good swing-and-miss pitch for him in the early going, so it's not totally unreasonable to be optimistic that he'll increase his 19% strikeout rate, but we just haven't seen it yet. | | Frankie Montas, Reds vs. MIL: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – We haven't seen a start with more strikeouts than innings pitched from Montas yet, and he had just six swinging strikes on 96 pitches Tuesday, so I'm not really buying into his strong start. If anyone is buying, I'd be looking to sell. | | A.J. Puk, Marlins @NYY: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 2 K – That's now 14 walks in 10.2 innings for Puk, who just hasn't looked comfortable in his transition to the rotation. With Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett nearing their returns from shoulder injuries, I think Puk is more likely to end up in the bullpen than to make even five more starts. You can go ahead and drop him. | | Casey Mize , Tigers @PIT: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – I was hopeful about Mize when we saw signs of increased velocity this spring, and he is throwing significantly harder than we've ever seen before, averaging 96.7 mph with his four-seam fastball in this one. The problem is, I'm just not sure the rest of the arsenal is good enough. His splitter is solid, but I'm not necessarily sure it's a dominant pitch, and his slider just doesn't get whiffs. I think Mize can be a decent pitcher by limiting walks and hard contact, but I'm just not sure where he's supposed to get strikeouts with his current arsenal, which makes it hard to get excited. | | David Bednar, RP, Pirates – Bednar's command is a major problem right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Pirates pulled him out of some higher-leverage situations until he finds it. But I don't think they're likely to take the closer's job away from him over a few poor outings, so I'd be trying to buy low if I had the chance. | | Jose LeClerc, RP, Rangers – LeClerc was tagged for two earned runs in a blown save Tuesday, and now has a 14.40 ERA with six walks and only four strikeouts in 5 innings of work. Given that the Rangers were seemingly hesitant to confirm him as the closer this spring, I have to think he has a lot less job security than Bednar, to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if David Robertson or Kirby Yates got the next save opportunity for the Rangers. | | Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks – Carroll homered Tuesday, his first of the season. That includes 19 homerless games this spring, plus 14 straight games without a homer to close out last postseason. That was 43 straight games without a longball for Carroll, who also had just eight homers in 76 games from July 1 on last season, after his shoulder injury. And his average exit velocity this season is just 81.3 mph, a dreadful number. I'm trying not to overreact here, so I'll just say I'm worried Carroll might be more like a 15-20 homer guy than the 25-homer guy he was in 2023. | | Carlos Correa, SS, Twins – Correa also hit his first homer of the season Tuesday, a 110-mph, 442-foot shot that represents his hardest hit ball of the season. He's off to a solid start to the season, making a ton of contact, though he hasn't been consistently elevating the ball, hence the lack of power. Still, I find myself pretty encouraged by Correa's play so far after he looked like a shell of himself amid ongoing foot injuries last season. It's a promising start, if not a return to Correa's peak. | | | | | | | | Beyond the Arc | | The First Cut | The NBA. Every day. Join hosts John Gonzalez, Ashley Nicole Moss and Bill Reiter as they discuss the latest news & storylines around the league on our new daily podcast, Beyond the Arc.
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