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| Thursday, April 29, 2021 |
| The 2021 NFL Draft actually kicks off tonight at 8 p.m. ET, but the biggest news of the afternoon might not have anything to do with the draft. According to multiple reports, Aaron Rodgers has grown dissatisfied with the Packers during the course of conversations about a contract extension and has expressed a desire to leave the team. While there's no evidence that the Packers are even considering trading Rodgers, multiple teams have inquired about Rodgers' availability already, including the 49ers Wednesday night -- though no team has made an official offer yet, apparently. |
| So that's another potential league-altering QB move we might be looking at this offseason. In case you've forgotten, the Jets, Colts, Jaguars, Lions, Bears, Saints, Panthers, Rams, and 49ers will all have new starters, while the Texans and Broncos may as well -- remember, Deshaun Watson has also requested a trade from the Texans before his legal issues cropped up. Whether he ends up traded or not, there's no guarantee Watson will be the starter for the Texans in 2021. |
| Nine teams with new starters, and potentially as many as five more who still might make a change this deep into the offseason. And that's before we even know where the rookie quarterbacks might land -- there are five of them who could go inside the top 10 picks tonight. |
| It's a lot to keep track of, and tonight could be a landscape altering night for the league, so you won't want to miss anything. Good news for you, we've got you covered. |
| I'll be manning the Fantasy Football Today NFL Draft live blog, with the rest of the FFT team contributing their thoughts on everything that goes down as it happens, including instant reactions to every pick and trade and in-depth breakdowns of every rookie's fit with his new team. |
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| Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings will also be on the Fantasy Football Today Watch Party at Youtube.com/FantasyFootballToday , alongside NFL analysts like Pete Prisco and Ryan Wilson, plus former NFL players Brady Quinn and Bryant McFadden. That kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and they'll be answering your questions in the chat all night while breaking down everything that happens. We've got the ultimate second and even third-screen experience for you as you follow along with the draft. |
| Make sure you check out everything we've got going on, because we'll be here all weekend long throughout the draft. There's a lot we still have to sort through both tonight and before Fantasy drafts for the 2021 season start up, but there are at least two things we know about tonight: who the top two picks will be. |
| Clemson's Trevor Lawrence is going to the Jaguars at No. 1 overall, and we've known that since they clinched the top pick -- the only question was which team would take Lawrence at the top. The Jets ultimately fell a bit short, so they'll almost certainly be taking BYU QB Zach Wilson at No. 2, and that's not a consolation prize they feel bad about at all. |
| Before the draft officially kicks off, we've already got our breakdowns of what those two picks will mean, for their Fantasy futures as well as those of the players around them on their new teams. You can read my thoughts on both in the rest of today's newsletter, and don't miss Adam Aizer's -- yes, Adaim Aizer is writing! -- thoughts on what to expect from the Jets receivers with Wilson around. |
| It's nice to know at least the top of the draft will be predictable. We've got you covered for everything else at the live blog: |
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| Fantasy impact of Trevor Lawrence to the Jaguars |
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| Lawrence has been the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft basically from the second he stepped on Clemson's campus. He led the Tigers to a perfect 15-0 record as a freshman, passing for 347 yards and three touchdowns in a thrashing of Alabama and Tua Tagovailoa. He ultimately ended up passing for 90 touchdowns in 40 games in college, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt with just 17 interceptions, and he's pretty widely agreed to be the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. |
| Of course, all that means he has the pleasure of joining the worst team in the NFL. However, despite Jacksonville's 1-15 record last season, this isn't a terrible spot for a young QB to end up. Urban Meyer is an unproven coach at the NFL level, but his collegiate success speaks for itself. And the Jaguars actually have a pretty solid core of skill position players with James Robinson at RB and DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Marvin Jones at WR -- plus whoever they draft with one of their other six picks in the first four rounds. That's actually not bad. |
| You shouldn't expect the Jaguars to all of a sudden become a very good offense in 2021, and Lawrence himself may not be more than a fringe Fantasy option as a rookie -- there have been just five rookie QBs to finish in the top 16 at the position overall in the last six seasons. But, he certainly raises the ceiling of this offense, and depending on which receivers emerge as the top options, it's not inconceivable that we could have multiple starting-caliber options on this team. And who knows, maybe Lawrence goes all Justin Herbert on us and dominates -- he's a much better prospect than Herbert was coming out, after all. |
| Jaguars fans are obviously thrilled, and Fantasy players should be plenty excited about having Lawrence in the NFL, even if he might not start playing like a real difference maker until 2022. |
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| Fantasy impact of Zach Wilson to the Jets |
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| It's interesting that the Jets seemingly keyed in on Wilson so quickly in the process, but it's obvious what they're betting on is Wilson's exceptional physical tools. His stock rose quite a bit with an excellent junior year during which he passed for 33 touchdowns to just three interceptions, as he had just 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in his first two seasons. He doesn't have the track record of excellence some of the other QB in this draft do, but it's hard not to fall in love with a guy who draws Patrick Mahomes comparisons. |
| Remember, Mahomes was considered quite a risk when the Chiefs took him in 2017 with the No. 10 pick. He was a much more productive player than Wilson was, but he was viewed as a toolsy prospect who needed a lot of development. And he had the luxury of sitting out his rookie season and playing in a Chiefs offense loaded with talent and with an offensive genius coaching them. Wilson won't have access to any of those three things, at least not at first. |
| So it could be a pretty rough landing for the new Jets QB. But the bet the Jets are making is that, in today's NFL, which puts more of an emphasis on mobility and playmaking ability than polished pocket passing, is an easier place for a prospect like Wilson to thrive. It's not one Fantasy players in re-draft leagues will want or have to make, but Wilson is going to be a top-10 pick in Dynasty rookie drafts, and potentially top three in SuperFlex rookie drafts. |
| The more important factor for 2021 is whether he can help the Jets offense take a step forward. It won't be hard, given how bad they've been with the Sam Darnold/Adam Gase combination, but it's not guaranteed. The Jets don't have a ton of talent around him -- a receiving corps of Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder probably isn't the worst in the league, but that might be damning with faint praise -- and Mike LaFleur is a first-time playcaller, so we don't really know what to expect, exactly. This is likely still going to be one of the least interesting offenses in the league in 2021, but if Wilson does hit the ground running, that could change quickly. |
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