Highest Rates in Decades Cut into Mortgage Volumes

The highest mortgage rates in 20+ years drove another decline in mortgage applications during the week ended September 22. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and fell by 2.0 percent on an unadjusted basis. The Refinance Index decreased 1.0 percent from the previous week and was 21 percent lower than the same week in 2022. The refinance share of mortgage activity grew to 31.9 percent of total applications from 31.6 percent the previous week. [refiappschart] The Purchase Index was 2.0 percent lower than the prior week on both a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis and was down 27 percent compared to the same week one year earlier. [purchaseappschart] According to Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, “Mortgage rates moved to their highest levels in over 20 years as Treasury yields increased late last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 7.41 percent, the highest rate since December 2000, and the 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage rate increased to 7.34 percent, the highest rate in the history of the jumbo rate series dating back to 2011. Based on the FOMC’s most recent projections, rates are expected to be higher for longer, which drove the increase in Treasury yields. “Overall applications declined, as both prospective homebuyers and homeowners continue to feel the impact of these elevated rates,” he said. “The purchase market, which is still facing limited for-sale inventory and eroded purchasing power, saw applications down over the week and 27 percent behind last year’s pace. Refinance activity was down over 20 percent from last year and accounted for approximately one third of applications, as many homeowners have little incentive to refinance.”

September 27, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Highest Rates in Decades Cut into Mortgage Volumes The highest mortgage rates in 20+ years drove another decline in mortgage applications during the week ended September 22. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decrease... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Relentless Surge in Mortgage Rates It's with no great pleasure (none of any kind, for that matter) that we find ourselves in a position to report, yet again, that mortgage rates have sailed decisively to another new multi-decade high. Today's installment is fairly unpleasant giv... (read more) MBS Commentary What is "Repricing" in The Broader Context, And How is it Moving Markets? What is "Repricing" in The Broader Context, And How is it Moving Markets? We've been here before and we'll be here again, but each time feels like a surprising new twist on what we think we know about bond ma... (read more) Rob Chrisman Verification, Credit, Servicing, Automated QC, POS, DSCR Products; Events and Training Fast Approaching Today I head to Phoenix area for the AzAMP annual conference, and am reminded that, “Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.” The mortgage industry is constantly changing, although Freddie and Fannie have been a somewhat stabilizing infl... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.65% +0.15% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.65% +0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.93% +0.12 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 7.10% +0.15 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.60% +0.09 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.09% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.12% +0.16 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/27 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.93% +0.12% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.19% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.54% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/21 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.31% +0.04 0.72 15 Yr. Fixed 6.62% -0.10 1.08 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.32% +0.07 0.80 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/20 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.36 -0.39 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 98.36 -0.39 GNMA 6.0 98.72 -0.34 Pricing as of: 9/27 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.6100 +0.0600 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.139 +0.005 5 YR Treasury 4.690 +0.070 7 YR Treasury 4.688 +0.075 10 YR Treasury 4.610 +0.060 30 YR Treasury 4.718 +0.031 Pricing as of: 9/27 5:31PM EST Latest Video Housing is really at a 'standstill': Zillow co-founder Spencer Rascoff Realtors and mortgage lenders are feeling a serious recession, says Fannie ... Redfin CEO explains why the housing market is taking a beating New home sales in August fell short of expectations Around the Web CNBC Fed's Neel Kashkari isn't sure if interest rates are high enough to stop inflation Calculated Risk Blog A Few Comments on the Likely Government Shutdown Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.4% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below recent peak Black Knight Buydowns and Loan Assumptions Help Home Buyers Bridge Affordability Gap CNBC Fed's Neel Kashkari sees 40% chance of 'meaningfully higher' interest rates Eye on Housing Lot Values Trail Behind Inflation Reuters Fed's Kashkari: Unsure if Fed has hiked enough to bring inflation to target - CNBC Eye on Housing Consumer Confidence Fall Again in September Calculated Risk Blog New Home Sales decrease to 675,000 Annual Rate in August Marketwatch Durable-goods orders climb on higher defense spending Calculated Risk Blog Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.0% year-over-year in July; New all-time High CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as investors weigh interest rate path ahead Calculated Risk Blog Comments on July Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices

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