Home Prices Still Surging, But Today's Data is For April

It's one of the perennial "yeah buts" of the two largest and most widely-cited home price indices: there data is always about 2 months old by the time it comes out. This is the nature of home price reporting. It doesn't mean the data is bad or wrong--simply that it should be taken with a grain of salt given that interest rates and consumer sentiment took a decisive turn for the worse in both May and June. So if you've had your salt, here's the latest on home prices (in April) from both the FHFA and S&P Case-Shiller: FHFA Home Price Index+1.6% in April vs +1.6% in March +18.8% over 12 months in April vs +19.1% in March Case Shiller 20-City Price Index+1.8% in April vs +2.4% in March +21.2% over 12 months in April vs +21.1% in March There are a few ways to glean more timely data, but there are grains of salt here too. The following chart shows the percentage of active listings with price drops as of last week. It DOES NOT take into account the extent to which those homes may have been swinging for the fences in terms of list price. It also doesn't make any comment about the actual final sales price. It's highest and best use would be to suggest a general shift has taken place over the past 2 months (the same 2 months not counted by the big indices above) from a frothy real estate valuation landscape to "something else." In so many ways, it remains to be seen what "something else" ultimately looks like.

June 28, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Home Prices Still Surging, But Today's Data is For April It's one of the perennial "yeah buts" of the two largest and most widely-cited home price indices: there data is always about 2 months old by the time it comes out. This is the nature of home price reporting. It doesn't mean the data is b... (read more) Rob Chrisman Operational Cost, Pre-qual, Broker, Legal and Vesting Tools; News From Wholesale Channel; Housing Supply and Demand You can rest assured that no animals were harmed in the making of this commentary! But the harm felt by stockholders during the last several months has not been trivial, and not only confined to lenders. As has been discussed in this Commentary, just... (read more) Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Moderately Higher to Start The Week 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.95% +0.07% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.95% +0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.30% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.35% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.10% +0.07 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.40% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.60% +0.15 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/28 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.30% +0.04% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.78% +0.55 0.90 15 Yr. Fixed 4.81% +0.43 0.90 5/1 Yr. ARM 4.33% +0.21 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/16 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.98% +0.33 0.77 15 Yr. Fixed 5.05% +0.26 0.86 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.49% +0.24 0.45 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/22 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 4.5 99.59 -0.02 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.5 99.59 -0.02 UMBS 5.0 101.30 -0.03 GNMA 4.5 100.80 -0.05 GNMA 5.0 101.83 -0.06 Pricing as of: 6/28 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.1753 -0.0263 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.116 -0.016 5 YR Treasury 3.236 -0.023 7 YR Treasury 3.250 -0.021 10 YR Treasury 3.175 -0.026 30 YR Treasury 3.279 -0.035 Pricing as of: 6/28 5:21PM EST Latest Video The Fed has led us into a technical recession, says Ritholtz's Josh Brown Mortgage rates bump back up near 6% The 2pm Bond Report - June 28, 2022 The 9am Bond Report: June 28, 2022 Around the Web cnbc New York Fed President John Williams says a U.S. recession is not his base case Calculated Risk Blog Comments on April Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Increases CNBC Rising interest rates have cost the typical homebuyer up to $165,000 in purchasing power since last year CNBC Home price increases slowed for the first time in months in April, says S&P Case-Shiller Calculated Risk Blog Housing: Inventory will Tell the Tale; Altos Research Reports Inventory Above Peak in 2021 CNBC Pending home sales post surprise increase in May, likely due to brief pullback in mortgage rates Reuters Oil extends gains as major producers flag capacity limits CNBC New York Fed President John Williams says a U.S. recession is not his base case Eye on Housing Regulation: 40.6 Percent of the Cost of Multifamily Development CNBC U.S. Treasury yields higher as investors await consumer confidence, home prices data CNBC Lagarde plays down recession risks, says ECB is ready to 'move faster' on rates if needed Reuters Euro zone yields jump, Italian-German spread tightens after ECB remarks Reuters Euro zone yields rise, focus on inflation data, ECB speakers

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