While it would be technically accurate to point out a slight increase in January's homebuilder confidence (officially the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index or HMI ), the type of movement we've seen in the past 2 years is better characterized as "incidental" in the bigger picture. As with most housing-related metrics, HMI plummeted in 2022 as interest rates skyrocketed. It's been broadly sideways ever since with the swings between highs and lows getting smaller and smaller. In market jargon, this is a textbook example of "consolidation"--something that can signal an eventual reversal back toward higher levels or a renewed slide to lower lows. Absent another catastrophic episode like the Great Financial Crisis, it's not clear what would make builders feel incrementally more gloomy than the post-pandemic lows. As such, this consolidation is widely viewed as representing some sort of lower boundary. Time is the key variable, and one that's likely to be determined by economic factors such as interest rates and inflation. Other highlights from this month's NAHB data: 30% of builders lowered prices in January, which is in line with the average of the past 6 months Average price reduction: 5%, unchanged from last month Sales incentives were used in 61% of transactions, also in line with norms
| Housing News | | Homebuilder Confidence Consolidation Continues | | While it would be technically accurate to point out a slight increase in January's homebuilder confidence (officially the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index or HMI ), the type of movement we've seen in the past 2 years is bett... (read more) |
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| Mortgage Rate Watch | | Uneventful Day For Mortgage Rates | | Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and Friday was the least active day of the week for bonds. There were no major economic reports to cause rapid changes in trading levels. As such, mortgage rates started out very close to the levels ... (read more) |
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| MBS Commentary | | Pre-3 Day Weekend Volatility is a Thing | | It always bears repeating that "predictions are for suckers" and if there were a hard and fast rule about what markets do in certain scenarios, traders could take advantage of those probabilities, thus restoring the odds to a more neutral level. With... (read more) |
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| 30 Yr. Fixed Rate | | 7.08% +0.01% |
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| Rate | Change | Points |
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| Mortgage News Daily | | 30 Yr. Fixed | 7.08% | +0.01 | 0.00 | | 15 Yr. Fixed | 6.50% | +0.02 | 0.00 | | 30 Yr. FHA | 6.47% | -0.01 | 0.00 | | 30 Yr. Jumbo | 7.35% | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.97% | -0.01 | 0.00 | | 30 Yr. VA | 6.48% | -0.02 | 0.00 | | Updates Daily - Last Update: 1/17 |
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| 15 Yr. Fixed Rate | | 6.50% +0.02% |
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| Rate | Change | Points |
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| Freddie Mac | | 30 Yr. Fixed | 7.04% | +0.11 | 0.00 | | 15 Yr. Fixed | 6.27% | +0.13 | 0.00 | | Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/16 |
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| Mortgage Bankers Assoc. | | 30 Yr. Fixed | 6.75% | 0.00 | 0.66 | | 15 Yr. Fixed | 6.15% | 0.00 | 0.71 | | 30 Yr. Jumbo | 6.86% | 0.00 | 0.61 | | Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/25 |
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| Price / Yield | Change |
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| MBS | | UMBS 5.5 | 98.38 | -0.16 | | UMBS 6.0 | 100.33 | -0.09 | | GNMA 5.5 | 98.92 | +0.06 | | GNMA 6.0 | 100.57 | +0.07 | | Pricing as of: 1/17 5:31PM EST |
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| 10 Year US Treasury | | 4.6220 +0.0090 |
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| Price / Yield | Change |
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| US Treasury | | 2 YR Treasury | 4.284 | +0.058 | | 5 YR Treasury | 4.428 | +0.031 | | 7 YR Treasury | 4.528 | +0.007 | | 10 YR Treasury | 4.622 | +0.009 | | 30 YR Treasury | 4.854 | -0.005 | | Pricing as of: 1/17 5:31PM EST |
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