Housing Recession or Big Shift to Multi-Family? Maybe Some of Both...

Residential construction numbers fell again in July, giving credence to Monday’s National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB’s) report detailing a near ten-year low in builder enthusiasm about the new home market. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development said both the rate of permitting and construction starts fell from their June levels. Permits for residential construction were down 1.3 percent compared to the previous month at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.674 million units. The June estimate was upgraded from 1.685 million to 1.696 million units. Permitted was 1.1 percent higher than in July 2021. Single family permits came in below the 1-million-unit rate for the second straight month at 928,000 annual units, 4.3 percent lower than in June. The permitting rate for those units is now 11.7 percent lower year-over-year. Multifamily permits were 2.5 percent higher than the prior month at 693,000, which is a 26.2 percent annual increase. The decline in permits on an unadjusted basis was more dramatic. They dropped from 157,200 in June to 133,400 in July. Single family starts fell to 75,200 from 91,500. Year-to-date (YTD), permits have totaled 1.033 million, up 1.5 percent from the same period last year. However, those for single-family construction, at 642,900, are lagging 2021 by 5.9 percent. The 359,000 permits for multifamily units represent 18.4 percent year-over-year growth. Housing starts slowed to a rate of 1.446 million in July, down 9.6 percent from June’s upwardly revised rate of 1.599 million and an 8.1 percent decline from the prior July. Single family starts fell 10.1 percent in a month and 18.5 percent on an annual basis. Multifamily starts completed the sweep, falling 10.0 percent although they were 17.4 percent higher year-over-year.

August 16, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Housing Recession or Big Shift to Multi-Family? Maybe Some of Both... Residential construction numbers fell again in July, giving credence to Monday’s National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB’s) report detailing a near ten-year low in builder enthusiasm about the new home market. The U.S. Census Bureau and Departme... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Edge Higher Ahead of Fed Minutes Saying "ahead of Fed Minutes" in a headline about rates is a fairly cheap trick for a few reasons, or at least it can be. In today's case, it probably is, but there's never a way to be sure until we see what the Fed has to say. Actually, it wo... (read more) MBS Commentary Inconsequentially Weaker and Increasingly Range-Bound Inconsequentially Weaker and Increasingly Range-Bound The word "range" appears in both the opening and closing commentary headlines. That's a surefire sign that something crazy is about to happen. ... (read more) Rob Chrisman PPE, Sales Performance, Bank Statement, Non-QM Products; Upcoming Training, Webinars, and Events “Common sense is not a gift. It's a punishment because you have to deal with everyone who doesn't have it.” This is a tough market, and common sense usually isn’t enough to get through it. Lenders have expressed the need for advice on how to stop the... (read more) Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Edge Higher Ahead of Fed Minutes 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.29% +0.04% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.29% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 4.60% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 4.72% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.70% +0.02 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.55% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 4.75% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 8/16 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.60% +0.02% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.30% -0.40 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 4.45% -0.38 0.80 5/1 Yr. ARM 4.19% -0.31 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.74% -0.08 0.61 15 Yr. Fixed 4.95% +0.07 0.67 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.32% +0.01 0.43 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/27 MBS / Treasuries Inconsequentially Weaker and Increasingly Range-Bound UMBS 30YR 4.0 99.69 -0.20 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.0 99.69 -0.20 UMBS 4.5 101.02 -0.16 GNMA 4.0 100.59 -0.20 GNMA 4.5 101.42 -0.17 Pricing as of: 8/16 5:41PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 2.8077 +0.0145 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.268 +0.073 5 YR Treasury 2.962 +0.055 7 YR Treasury 2.900 +0.038 10 YR Treasury 2.808 +0.015 30 YR Treasury 3.090 -0.014 Pricing as of: 8/16 5:41PM EST Latest Video Home prices will stay the same this cycle, says Realtor.com's Danielle Hale U.S. housing starts fall 9.6% in July, miss expectations The 9am Bond Report - August 16, 2022 The 9am Bond Report - August 15, 2022 Around the Web CNBC Homebuyers are backing out of more deals as high mortgage rates persist and recession fears linger CNBC The 12 least affordable housing markets in the U.S. Bloomberg Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated CNBC Homebuilders say U.S. is in a 'housing recession' as sentiment turns negative Eye on Housing Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction Surging CNBC Bond yields tick upward ahead of big housing data release Calculated Risk Blog Housing Inventory August 15th Update: Up 30.3% Year-over-year wells fargo Industrial Production Regained its Footing in July Eye on Housing Building Materials Prices Increase in July as Concrete Surges Reuters Stocks pause as faltering China knocks oil Calculated Risk Blog Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC This was a good week for inflation numbers, but whether it can last is the big question CNBC Treasury yields tick lower as investors digest previous week's data

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