How big will it be?

The Federal Reserve’s attention has been squarely focused on inflation these past few years. But as it seeks to execute a soft landing following all the post-pandemic tumult, the central bank is looking to the other part of its mandate. With several reports, including August job numbers, suggesting the US labor market is losing steam, Fed watchers are wondering if the Fed will make a bigger-than-expected interest-rate cut when it meets later this month. The most recent jobs report further affirmed expectations for a cut, so the big question now is how much. For Fed Governor Christopher Waller, “the balance of risks has shifted toward the employment side of our dual mandate,” adding that “policy needs to adjust accordingly.” In some corners of Wall Street, traders are again putting bets on the Fed opting for a 50-basis-point cut (which looked like wishful thinking a month ago) instead of the widely expected 25-point reduction.

Though industries like tech and finance have been engaged in mass firings, the broader employment market continues to look stable. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell likely recognizes that many companies are putting off expansion plans amid high borrowing costs, not to mention uncertainty surrounding November’s presidential election. Inflation has continued dropping, but residual pain and suspicions of price gouging have many Americans wondering how the two presidential candidates stack up on their economic proposals. For economists at Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump’s stated policies, including new tariffs, will damage American growth despite pledges of tax cuts (which are up to Congress anyway). Conversely, a victory by Vice President Kamala Harris, the economists said, would likely usher in a small bump to gross domestic product.

Forget the issues: Harris and Trump are gearing up for a debate on Tuesday, the only one scheduled and an event that—until recently—was in doubt, given Trump’s reluctance to commit to showdown with the former prosecutor and attorney general. Advisers to both candidates say it will hinge more on style than substance. Campaigns are more for promises that reflect priorities than for hard proposals. For example, take their vastly different tax plans: Trump promises to ask Congress to slash corporate taxes for companies that make their products in the US to 15% from 21% (and said he’d tap right-wing billionaire Elon Musk to audit the government). Harris has called for a 28% capital gains tax rate on rich Americans earning $1 million or more. She also proposed a 10-fold increase in the small business tax deduction for startup costs. Harris keeps gaining momentum, and Democratic leaders in Georgia and North Carolina think she and the party could score the first double win in those Southern swing states since Jimmy Carter won in 1976.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is sticking to his hard-line approach on Hamas—and says a cease-fire deal isn’t close. He’s digging in on the 11-month long war in Gaza despite anger over what Israel said was Hamas’ execution of six Israeli hostages. Hamas said they were killed in an Israeli bombing. Many Israelis blame Netanyahu for what they say is his prioritization of the war over hostages’ lives, triggering a massive nationwide strike. Netanyahu has pushed back against the domestic furor, saying he wants to keep Israeli troops along the border between Gaza and Egypt to prevent arms smuggling. Hamas has also hardened its stance, saying Israeli military pressure to free hostages “will mean they will return to their families inside coffins.” It’s unclear whether either side wants a deal in the war that’s killed tens of thousands, but the US, Qatar and Egypt will present a new proposal soon. Further straining Netanyahu’s ties to Israel’s biggest source of financial and military aid was the death of an American citizen in the West Bank. Witnesses said Israeli troops shot her in the head. The Biden administration says it’s investigating.

President Joe Biden’s big bet on Intel to lead a US chipmaking renaissance is in serious trouble as a result of the company’s mounting financial struggles. There are growing questions around when, or if, Intel will get its hands on a $20 billion package of incentives meant to supercharge chipmaking on US home soil. Broadcom’s earnings were lackluster, another possible sign that slower demand for chips outside of artificial intelligence is weighing on growth. Meantime, the Justice Department sent subpoenas to Nvidia and other companies as it seeks evidence that the chipmaker violated antitrust laws, an escalation of its investigation into the dominant provider of AI processors.

Political risk is dogging Germany and France, exposing weakness at Europe’s core. Public approval of Germany’s government sank to the lowest in 14 years after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition was hammered by populists of the right and left in regional elections. In Paris, Emmanuel Macron finally picked a prime minister, only to leave far-right leader Marine Le Pen and her party the role of power broker. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his Labour government, two months after crushing the Tories in a landslide election, face a “skittish and apprehensive bond market,” Marcus Ashworth writes.

A pool is so pedestrian. For the UK’s wealthy homeowners, swimming ponds—or natural pools—are growing in popularity. Another popular water feature, the Trevi Fountain, is swamped by tourists. The narrow streets surrounding the spectacular Baroque-era fountain have become so packed with sightseers that Rome is considering a solution: Charging for tickets.

India is the world’s fastest growing major economy. Yet, it’s struggling to create jobs for its expanding population, and that’s a key challenge for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary, How India Is Failing Its Educated Youth, we explore Modi’s hopes to achieve a developed economy status for the country by 2047, and how time is running out.

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