Whatās Going On Here?Data out on Friday showed that the US economy added way fewer jobs than expected in May, as the pandemic continues to show America exactly whoās boss. What Does This Mean?There were 559,000 more US jobs last month than there were in April. Thatās not just lower than the 670,000-plus economists were predicting, it fell a long way short of the so-called āwhisper numberā ā the figure investors were expecting ā of around 800,000 (tweet this).
The US unemployment rate did fall, to be fair ā from 6.1% to 5.8%. And, significantly, working Americansā wages were 2% higher in May than they were a year before, compared to economistsā projections of 1.6%. Still, even thatās a concern: higher-than-expected wage growth could be yet another sign that already-high US inflation risks running out of control. Why Should I Care?For markets: Whatās bad for the goose is good for a gander.
Lowball job additions are bad for the economy, even if those in work are being paid more than last year. But this situation could counterintuitively be good for investors. If the US recovery remains tentative, the countryās central bank is unlikely to end its economic support any time soon. And keeping interest rates lower for longer ā and keeping borrowing cheap ā would be a boon to the āgrowthā stocks in market-dominating sectors like tech.
The bigger picture: America isnāt working.
There are still 7.6 million fewer US workers than there were in February 2020, when the country was as close to full employment as itās ever been. But many of those lost jobs will never return: the pandemic has pushed plenty of people into early retirement or full-time childcare. In fact, Americaās 62% labor force participation is way lower than the 80%-odd average rate in both the UK and the eurozone. Americaās crippling opioid epidemic isnāt doing that discrepancy any favors either, so solving that crisis could be key to long-term economic prosperity. | 