| | | | Tuesday, September 17, 2024 | | As we get down to the final few weeks of the season, I'm trying to find the right balance between recapping the previous night's action and providing analysis for the immediate future, while also keeping an eye on 2025. And, with each passing day, that balance tips more to the 2025 side of the equation; fewer of you have something to play for right now, and those of you who do have few opportunities to actually change your outcomes. | | So, this newsletter is going to be increasingly forward-looking, though I will still be recapping what you need to know from the previous day's action at the bottom here. I'm already working on some way-too-early 2025 rankings, and this week, that will mean diving deep into the outfield – last week, I took a look at some of the most interesting results from my first draft of the infield. And, if you want a way-too-early look at the overall rankings, Scott White wrote about that exact topic today, which you can check out here. | | And, with outfield on my mind, I've got one important question to kick things off: How high is too high to rank Jackson Chourio for 2025? | | We've obviously got a few weeks left in his rookie season, but the book is almost entirely written by now, and it's a heck of a story. In fact, it's a pretty historic one, with Chourio becoming just the third player in MLB history to have 20 homers and 20 steals as a 20-year-old, joining Mike Trout and Vada Pinson in that club. That's pretty impressive company – Trout's rookie season ushered in basically a decade where he was the unquestioned No. 1 pick in Fantasy, after all. | | But it also goes without saying that Chourio is not Mike Trout. As good as he has been as a rookie – Chourio is now a top-35 player in Roto for the season – Trout was better in every single way – he had 30 homers and 49 steals while leading the American League with a 168 OPS+, compared to Chourio's 121 mark to go along with his 21 homers and 20 steals. | | | | It's no knock on Chourio to say he isn't as good as Mike Trout, of course, though it is worth noting that, for much of the season, he hasn't been far off. As Underdog Fantasy's Brendan Tuma pointed out recently, Chourio has been one of the very best hitters in the league since the start of June, posting a top-12 wRC+ since then, with a mark of at least 143 in each month. It took him a while to figure it out, but once Chourio did, he played like an absolute superstar, and he has the underlying numbers to back it up, too. | | Chourio's expected wOBA for the season is .341, which is impressive enough – it's in the 75th percentile among all hitters, fueled by a near-elite .286 xBA (92nd percentile). But over his past 250 plate appearances, Chourio's xwOBA is .394, and the arrow has just been pointing up for most of the season at this point: | | | | And it's worth repeating, Chourio is doing all this as a 20-year-old; he didn't turn 20 until a few weeks before his rookie season, at that. He's a top-36 player in Fantasy and he's only two months older than Roman Anthony, the new top prospect in baseball who we're hoping will be MLB ready at the start of 2025. It's hard to overstate how impressive what Chourio is doing right now. | | But does it mean he needs to be a first-round pick in 2025? | | As good as Chourio, probably not. While adjusting for age does make Chourio's achievements even more impressive, it doesn't necessarily follow that he's going to take a big step forward in year two. He very well may, but you can look at Vada Pinson, the other player to go 20-20 as a 20-year-old for a sign of why it isn't a guarantee. Pinson was incredible as a rookie, but he actually took a small step back in his second season, despite stealing a few more bases; his overall OPS dropped from .880 as a 20-year-old to .811 as a 21-year-old. Heck, even Trout took a step backward in four of the five Roto categories in his second season. | | And, when you compare Chourio to the other most productive young players over the past few years who have made the leap to first-round draft status in their second seasons, he comes up pretty short. Ronald Acuña was a better overall hitter as a 20-year-old, finishing with 26 homers and 16 steals in 25 (and counting) fewer games; Julio Rodriguez had 28 and 25 as a rookie, with a better OPS+ than Chourio; Fernando Tatis had 22 homers and 16 steals as a 20-year-old in only 84 games. As brilliant as Chourio has been, he's been a bit below those guys, both as an overall hitter and as a Fantasy player. | | | | That's not to say Chourio can't get there, of course. He's hit at their level for two-thirds of the season, and I think that upward trajectory is probably worth betting on for a player this young – especially since we saw similar trends when he was climbing the ladder in the minors. But Chourio's lack of steals especially makes it tough to bet on him as a first-round caliber player: He is just 28th in steals this season; Acuña was 37th in just 111 games as a rookie, Tatis was 32nd in 84 games, and Rodriguez was 12th in 132 games. | | If you're looking for a place where Chourio could help his value in the next couple of weeks, it's probably on the basepaths. There's no question he has the ability to be a truly impactful source of steals, of course, with his 98th-percentile sprint speed and 44 steals in 128 games last season. The Brewers have just been weirdly conservative with Chourio, specifically, as he ranks just fourth in steals on their team despite his elite speed. Maybe they are trying to have the young guy focus on the other aspects of his game before letting him run wild, but it has been weird to see them holding Chourio back like this while ranking third in the majors in steals as a team. | | That's a good reason to be bullish on Chourio, of course. I'm just not sure it's enough to push him into that first-round discussion. Not when we've already seen seasons like that from young guys like Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodriguez, who probably won't rank in the top-12 overall next season either. Chourio is an elite talent, and he might even have No. 1 overall player upside if it all comes together for him. But I think Fernando Tatis probably still has No. 1 overall player upside, and I don't think he's going to be ranked in the top-12 overall, either; and I'll probably rank Acuña ahead of him, assuming it looks like he'll be ready close to Opening Day coming off his torn ACL. | | I do think Chourio has done enough to play his way into a top-10 ranking among outfielders, and into the second/third-round consideration overall – and unlike many power/speed guys, I think he might very well be equally valuable in H2H points leagues, thanks to rapidly improving plate discipline. This is a special talent, for sure. | | There's room for Chourio to emerge as a 30-homer, 40-steal guy who competes for batting titles in the long run, and if he does, we're talking about a potential No. 1 pick. I don't think he's quite there yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if he got there by this time next year. So, like Scott, I'm probably comfortable ranking Chourio as a second-round pick for 2025 at this point. | | | | Monday's recap | | | | News and Notes | | Francisco Lindor's MRI revealed no structural damage on his back. He's expected back in 2-5 days, which still means he probably won't make much of an impact this week. But if you're in one of those leagues that allows mid-week lineup changes for hitters, Lindor should be back by the weekend. | | CJ Abrams has now missed four straight due to left shoulder discomfort, though he was available off the bench Monday. | | Oneil Cruz was out of the lineup due to left ankle discomfort. | | Steven Kwan has missed four straight due to back soreness. Medical tests revealed no structural damage and Kwan is expected to avoid the IL, but don't be surprised if he continues to get some extra time off ahead of the playoffs. | | Ozzie Albies will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tuesday and could return as soon as Friday. He's coming back from a fractured wrist, and it might be asking too much for him to come back from a two-month absence and immediately make an impact, though obviously he has the upside for it. | | Luis Arraez left Monday's game due to a lower body injury. He had an awkward slide into home plate, and in the next inning looked very hobbled after hitting a double. Additionally, Arraez struck out for the first time since August 10, had gone 141 PA without a strikeout, the longest streak in the past 20 years in the majors. | | Mike Trout is open to moving to a corner outfield spot or serving as the DH in 2025. Trout suffered a torn meniscus in his left knee twice this season, which limited him to just 29 games. I still think he can be an impactful player, but obviously staying healthy has been a huge issue for him. Maybe playing more DH will help. | | Willson Contreras has been ruled out for the remainder of the season due to his fractured right middle finger. | | The Pirates promoted Nick Yorke on Monday. He was in the lineup at second base, batting seventh. Yorke is a 22-year-old who hit .303 with 12 HR, 33 doubles, 21 steals, and an .834 OPS in 123 games between Double-A and Triple-A. There's some late-season sleeper appeal here. | | Ryan Weathers is expected to return Wednesday against the Dodgers. Looked like he was having a breakout season earlier, and he's been out since June with a left index finger strain. I wouldn't want to use him against the Dodgers, but if he does well, maybe he could be a viable streamer next week. | | Jordan Montgomery will rejoin the Dbacks' rotation Tuesday against the Rockies in Coors Field. I think it goes without saying that I wouldn't trust him at Coors Field. | | The Diamondbacks optioned Adrian Del Castillo back to Triple-A, which makes sense because Gabriel Moreno is back. | | The Angels optioned Caden Dana back to Double-A and he'll be shut down for the rest of the season. In three starts with the Angels he had a 10.45 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, with 8 K to 7 BB over 10.1 IP. There's limited long-term appeal here. | | Monday's standouts | | Seth Lugo, Royals vs. DET: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Lugo had put together three very good starts prior to this one, but this continues his very up-and-down second half. He hasn't been bad , but his 4.08 ERA since the All-Star break is probably a bit more like what we should expect from him moving forward. He's a good pitcher, just not the difference maker he's been for most of the season. | | Yoshinobu Yamamoto , Dodgers @ATL: 4 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – The Dodgers have already acknowledged they are going to keep Yamamoto on an extra-rest schedule through the postseason, so at this point, his final couple of starts are likely just about stretching him out enough to where they can at least expect six innings when he does pitch. He threw just 72 pitches in this one, and while he'll likely have a longer leash the next time he goes out, I don't necessarily think you can expect much more than about five innings from him. Yamamoto is an impact pitcher when right; he's proven that much with his rookie season. But his durability and volume might be long-term question marks in his profile. | | Sean Manaea, Mets vs. WAS: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – I'm really struggling with how to value Manaea for 2025. He's on a heck of a run right now, with a 2.49 ERA and 2.91 FIP over his past 10 starts, fueled by a massive 30.8% strikeout rate. And the fact that this run coincides with a change in his arm slot suggests it isn't necessarily a total fluke. But we're also nearly a decade into Manaea's career, and we've seen stretches like this from him before that were ultimately unsustainable. I lean toward this also proving unsustainable, but I might still rank him as a top-50 SP for 2025. | | Reid Detmers , Angels vs. CHW: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – There were a lot of "I Told You So's" going around Fantasy Twitter last night, and look, if you thought this wasn't a possible outcome with Detmers, that just means you weren't paying attention. I liked Detmers as a streamer this week, but, well, there's a reason Detmers has been sent back to the minors multiple times over the past few years. There's clearly talent here, but he just hasn't learned how to put it together consistently, and at this point, I strongly lean toward him never figuring it out. But it's also September, and the number of pitchers you can actually trust these days can probably be counted on your fingers and toes with a few to spare. So yeah, Detmers imploding wasn't a surprise, but I'll stand by it as a risk most of you still should have taken. | | Joey Estes, Athletics @CHC: 1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 1 K – Because the alternative to trusting Detmers was someone like Estes, who entered Monday with a 3.50 ERA since Aug. 1. So much for all that. At least Detmers had strikeout upside if things didn't go right; Estes' only chance of being useful is keeping runs off the board, and none of his underlying skills indicators suggested that was a good bet to continue. And it wasn't. | | Matthew Boyd, Guardians vs. MIN: 2.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Boyd was another risky bet I thought was worth taking, but I think we're probably done with that one, too. He has gone just seven total innings in his past two starts, though it's worth noting that he hasn't exactly gotten crushed in that time; even in Monday's outing, he gave up two hard-hit balls. He just hasn't been efficient enough to pitch deep into games with the quick hook the Guardians have for him, and while I could still see some good outings in his final two against the Cardinals and Astros, I certainly can't expect them. | | Jake Irvin, Nationals @NYM: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Irvin has had a pretty up-and-down season here, but the arrow seems to be pointing up lately. He saw a bit of a velocity spike in this outing and faded his curveball, both of which worked out well for him. That being said, just like it was true early in the season, his success here doesn't feel totally sustainable; he had just a 26% called-plus-swinging strike rate in this one, a really poor mark for a command-focused profile. Irvin's 4.01 ERA for the season is backed up by a 4.20 FIP, and I think that's probably just what he is at this point: A decent streamer, but not much more. | | Reese Olson, Tigers @KC: 2.1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – It was good to see Olson back on the mound after missing nearly two months due to a shoulder injury, and I don't think we can or should draw too many conclusions from what is effectively a rehab start. Looking ahead to 2025, I still think Olson carries significant sleeper appeal still, with a 3.50 ERA and 3.58 xERA for the season and two pitches in his slider and changeup with whiff rates over 40%. I think there are some high-end outcomes where Olson is a legitimate difference maker if he can find the right approach to spike his strikeout rate, and I'd certainly rather bet on him than someone like Irvin next season. | | Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks @COL: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Kelly had a 5.84 ERA in his six starts since coming off the IL prior to this one, so if you started him at Coors Field for this one, congratulations, you are smarter than me. Come take my job. There's absolutely no way I would have taken that risk on Kelly. As it turns out, predicting individual pitching performances is hard! | | Andre Pallante , Cardinals vs. PIT: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – I have no idea where this one came from. Pallante has had decent results this season from a run prevention standpoint, because he has been a standout in limiting hard contact and extra-base hits, but he had shown almost no strikeout upside prior to this. He threw more sliders in this one, but it's not like there was much reason to think that would lead to a huge strikeout breakout; he has a merely decent 28% whiff rate with that pitch and generated just three of his seven total whiffs with it in this one. I think this one is just a fluke, but with matchups against Cleveland and San Francisco over the final two weeks, he could remain useful. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | WNBA | UEFA Champions League is BACK for Matchday 1! Watch AC Milan take on Liverpool today at 3 PM ET as they kick off an exciting new season, streaming on Paramount+.
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