Plus, checking in on the state of play in the 'blue wall'
| Infrequent voters are fueling Trump's support. Will they show up? |
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The razor-close presidential election could very well come down to this question: Will the infrequent voters who back Donald Trump by double digits actually turn out? According to NBC News’ merged national polls from July, September and October, Vice President Kamala Harris overperforms among the voters who participated in both the 2020 and 2022 elections, winning them by 6 points (51% to 45%). And she carries the tiny share of voters who participated in 2022 but not 2020 by 9 points (52% to 43%). Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here to receive it weekdays. Those findings aren’t surprising given the Democrats’ stronger-than-expected midterm showing two years ago. But among less frequent voters, our merged polling shows that Trump is winning those who participated only in 2020 but not in 2022 by 4 points (48% to 44%). And he's carrying the voters who didn't partake in either 2020 or 2022 by 10 points (50% to 40%). |
This is all part of a recent realignment in American politics, where Democrats now overperform in lower-turnout elections and Republicans — at least on paper — do better when there's larger turnout. The challenge for Trump is turning that support in the polls into votes. Our merged polling finds that the sliver of the electorate that didn't participate in either 2020 or 2022 have less interest in the upcoming election than voters who cast ballots in at least one of those two past elections, raising doubts about whether they'll show up in 2024. On the other hand, NBC News recently observed a pair of focus groups of voters who didn't participate in the 2020 election but are planning to this time around. They revealed understandable reasons why they didn't vote four years ago — work, family, Covid, not meeting voter-registration deadlines all got in the way. These non-2020 voters also voiced why many of them — though not all — are backing Trump over Harris: They believe life was better when Trump was president than it is now. "Prosperous," "robust," "normal" and "hopeful" were some of their answers when asked what life was like when Trump was in the White House. Now? "Difficult," "struggling," "declining" and "troubling" were among their responses. These are the voters who are leaning Trump's way, the focus groups found. The billion-dollar question hanging over this election: Will they — as well as the millions of other voters who sat out 2020 — ultimately vote and cast ballots for Trump? |
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Checking in on the state of play in the 'blue wall' |
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As readers of this newsletter know well by now, the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are set to play a critically important role in determining the outcome of the presidential race. With Election Day just over one week away, here’s a look at some of the key dynamics shaping the state of play there: 🧤Michigan: Alex Seitz-Wald and Henry J. Gomez write that Kamala Harris is hoping that gains in Michigan's suburbs will swamp losses among parts of the Democratic base — including Arab Americans, Black men and young voters — in places like Dearborn and Detroit. Read more → Further down the ballot, Henry also explores how Republicans are pushing a message centered on civility and “relentless positive action” — and not on Donald Trump — as they seek to reclaim control of the Michigan state House. Read more → 🔑 Pennsylvania: Peter Nicholas takes stock of the Harris campaign’s massive door-knocking operation in the Philadelphia suburbs. Interviews with two dozen campaign aides, Democratic strategists, volunteers and elected officials suggest that Harris’ hopes in Pennsylvania hinge on a ground operation that they believe dwarfs anything Trump has assembled. Read more →
🦡 Wisconsin: Matt Dixon reports that Harris’ campaign has been stacking up Republican endorsements in Wisconsin, which has emerged as a central part of her effort to attract voters from across the aisle who are skeptical of Trump. Read more →
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🔊 Turning up the volume: An NBC News analysis found that Trump made unfounded claims about Democrats’ likelihood of cheating in the November election at 14 of his last 20 rallies. By comparison, over the summer, Trump referred to Democrats trying to cheat in the 2024 race just five times in 20 rally speeches. Read more → ⚠️ Election warning: U.S. intelligence agencies have identified domestic extremists with grievances rooted in election-related conspiracy theories, including beliefs in widespread voter fraud and animosity toward perceived political opponents, as the most likely threat of violence in the coming election. Read more → 🗳️ Vote watch: Ballot drop boxes in Portland, Oregon, and neighboring Vancouver, Washington, were set on fire early Monday morning in what authorities believe are connected incidents. Read more → 🗣️ Closing arguments: Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday was overshadowed by crude and racist remarks by several speakers, which the Harris campaign is already seizing on in a new digital ad. Read more → 🛑 Not so fast: Philadelphia’s district attorney is suing Elon Musk and his super PAC to block their million-dollar giveaway to registered voters. Read more → ☑️ How to read the early voting numbers: Even with weeks of early voting already complete in some places, it’s dangerous to read too much into partisan breakouts of who has voted so far, as there is still time for those patterns to shift. Read more → 😴 Sleeper races: Sahil Kapur breaks down nine races for the Senate and House that could be more competitive than expected on Election Night. Read more → Follow live updates from the campaign trail → |
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Watch: Trump's 'track record' of attacks on Puerto Rico is 'clear,' says Democratic lawmaker |
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That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com. And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here. |
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