How Long Will Poland Embrace Ukrainian Refugees?

A small room in a two-story house in Mokotów, a green central Warsaw district, is the only place Nika Birkovskaya and her two-year-old daughter Daniela can now call “home.” They share the house with 11 fellow Ukrainians. Birkovskaya’s hometown, the Black Sea port city of Mykolaiv, is under heavy Russian shelling. So going back to Ukraine isn’t an option at the moment. But she doesn’t want to depend, indefinitely, on the goodwill of the owners of the house. “The owners are very good to us,” said the 33-year-old hairdresser. “But after months of wandering, I would like a little peace and solitude.”

For several months now, Birkovskaya has been trying to rent a flat in Warsaw. But high rental costs, the lack of a regular income, the reluctance of some homeowners to rent out to Ukrainians and the vagaries of Poland’s housing regulations have meant that her search, so far, has been futile. She and Daniela remain stuck in their small room with a bunk bed, bedside table and some Ikea wall storage.

Since Russia’s invasion, Poland has welcomed more than 4.5 million refugees. They have received a national identity number, a one-off stipend, health and social benefits, and access to a labor market where local entrepreneurs received incentives to hire them. Many refugees have already returned to Ukraine, while others, like Birkovskaya, remain in Poland. The warmth with which Poles have embraced Ukrainians has been aided by a tangible benefit: The government in Warsaw had been paying 40 PLN ($9) daily per refugee to those who sheltered them. But since June 1, these benefits no longer apply to the continued housing of Ukrainians already in the country. Many refugees now must quickly learn how to maneuver in a chaotic Polish housing market.

As in much of the world, Poland’s housing market crashed early in the pandemic. But rentals recovered last year. And the huge, sudden influx of Ukrainians has only sharpened that uptrend. In the two months following the invasion, rental rates had jumped by 10% or more in Poland’s biggest cities. Before the invasion, Warsaw rents hovered around 3,000 PLN ($668) per month for a two-room apartment; after the refugees began pouring out of Ukraine, those prices shot up to 4,000 PLN ($890). “And you need to have another 3,000-4,000 to pay the deposit and more or less the same for the broker,” said Birkovskaya wryly. “I don't have that kind of money.”

Among the most overcrowded countries in the European Union, Poland needs more than two million additional dwellings, according to a 2019 study. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the availability of apartments has shrunk even more: In April, the number of online postings for rental apartments dropped by 39% compared to March and by over 65% compared to April of last year. “The market has gone from bottom to top in just two years,” said Barbara Bugaj, an analyst at the Warsaw-based SonarHome real estate agency. “I don’t remember the last time we dealt with such a dramatic decline in supply and such high demand.”

Bugaj said that the price spikes likely have more to do with the financial challenges that ordinary Poles themselves face than with attempts to take advantage of Ukrainians. Galloping inflation and higher interest rates — that jumped from 0.5% in October to 6% in June — have caused mortgage rates to rise sharply. For landlords, the only way to cover the monthly loan installments they owe banks is by raising rents. Refugees “have been caught in a vicious circle,” Bugaj said. Tenants are unable to leave rented flats because they can’t afford to buy something of their own, and the landlords increase rents to pay off their own loans and deal with inflation.

Asked if she would rent her flat to a Ukrainian woman with a child, Magda, a landlord from Warsaw who requested that her full name not be shared, is quick to reply: No. But she insisted that “it doesn’t really matter if a person is Ukrainian or American.” Her former tenant, a Polish man with two children, at one point stopped paying rent, and she had to fight a year-long court battle to remove him. The tenant eventually left voluntarily, but had he not done so, “it would be virtually impossible to get rid of him,” she said. Pregnant women, pensioners, children and people with disabilities are among groups protected under Polish law, which requires that local municipalities find them a substitute flat before a landlord can terminate a contract. In practice, this means that landlords are themselves expected to find other apartments for tenants they want to evict, since subsidized public housing usually has few vacancies.

Magda acknowledged that the law, which seemingly sought to protect the most vulnerable sections of society from homelessness, often ends up preventing “them from finding a place at all.” Her own brother, a father of two, lives in rented accommodation — and his apartment is, in her words, “devastated.” She said that, due to skyrocketing inflation, the cost of repairs to an apartment can far outweigh the deposit that owners seek from renters.

That question — which many refugees have no answer to — is also at the heart of why many Ukrainians are often not preferred tenants. Many landlords prefer a year-long lease, and so they are reluctant to rent out their apartments to refugees, who might return to their hometowns once those locations are no longer under Russian attack.

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Birkovskaya said she can’t even dream about buying an apartment in Warsaw, which is almost as expensive as Madrid, Lisbon and Rome, with average values of almost 1,200 PLN ($255) per square foot. Last year, according to Eurostat data, house prices in Poland increased at the second-fastest rate in Europe, a result of the dramatic rise in the prices of grounds and building materials, among other factors. Wealthier Ukrainians might still be able to afford their own apartment, but it is unclear if they plan to stay in Poland long-term. “Whether Ukrainian refugees will enter Poland’s real estate purchase market, we will see in three to four years, when they stabilize their professional situation, save money or go to the bank for a loan,” said Konrad Płochocki, vice president of the Polish Association of Developers.

Birkovskaya isn’t sure about what she wants to do. She has lived off alimony from Daniela’s father, Polish government benefits and occasional gigs — not a dream portfolio for potential landlords. Yet, whenever the law, inflation and turbulence in the market serve as obstacles, Birkovskaya finds hope in the warmth she has witnessed from ordinary people in Poland. The owners of her current residence have said she can stay there as long as needed, even though the government won’t compensate them for it anymore. “There is no anger in me,” she said. “I’ve got a lot of good from the Polish people.”

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