HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT Populist pied piper. The son of a tea seller, Modi has repeatedly contrasted his disadvantaged childhood with the privileged upbringing of Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the opposition Congress party, whose father, grandmother (Indira Gandhi) and great-grandfather were all former prime ministers. That’s helped him tap into an aspirational India, where millions see Modi’s rise as a beacon of hope despite setbacks that might’ve spelled doom for most other democratic governments — such as the highest unemployment levels in 45 years. Modi has complemented his populism with a strong dose of nationalism, presenting himself as a muscular strong man capable of taking on archrival Pakistan. Gandhi or his killer? Days after he took office in 2014, Modi invoked the name of Mahatma Gandhi — not as an icon of nonviolence as the world knows him but as the mascot for a national cleanliness drive. Yet several members of his party have publicly lauded the Hindu extremist who assassinated Gandhi for his espousal of secularism. Among them is Pragya Thakur, who faces charges of terror attacks on mosques but will now enter parliament after winning in these elections on a BJP ticket. Meanwhile, mobs have lynched at least 27 people, most of them Muslims, on suspicion of transporting beef since 2017. With today’s landslide win, Modi’s critics are worried about the future of India as a secular society. Stronger global hand. The mandate will also strengthen Modi’s position in tricky international negotiations. India is locked in a tariff war with the U.S., which is also threatening sanctions unless New Delhi — Iran’s second-largest oil consumer — stops buying crude from Tehran. Still, India remains a critical cog in American efforts to counter a rising China, and Modi is expected to leverage that, even as he also maintains strong relations with Russia. Meanwhile, he’s expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping soon as the two Asian giants look to reset their frequently tense relationship following Modi’s win. War or peace? In speeches throughout his campaign, Modi referred to his decision to send warplanes into Pakistan to bomb terrorist camps earlier this year after militants killed 40 Indian soldiers. “Modi went and killed them in their homes,” he told crowds. But with elections now over, he might actually be the best bet for peace between the nuclear-armed neighbors, many experts believe — a fact that Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan even acknowledged several weeks ago. On Thursday, Khan was quick to congratulate Modi. Like Richard Nixon’s dealings with China, Modi’s nationalist credentials are strong enough that he can afford to strike deals with Pakistan whereas other Indian leaders might shy away. Reforms or voodoo economics? Many analysts believe the nationalist fever can last only so long and that Indians will eventually judge their leader on his economic performance. Modi has dismissed academic expertise — “I believe in hard work, not Harvard,” he once said — to rely instead on less qualified advisers. In 2014, he offered a Reaganesque promise of “minimum government, maximum governance.” But once in power, he steered clear of major economic reforms in sectors ranging from banking to labor. Under Modi, the Indian currency has slid by 50 percent against the dollar, hurting Indian exports. Now, assured of at least another five years in power — India has no term limits — the world will get to see whether Modi means what he said. |
