Nebraska is far from anyone’s idea of a battleground state, but a potential rule change there could have major ramifications on the outcome of this year’s presidential election.
Donald Trump and Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen have called on the state’s Legislature to change the way Nebraska awards its Electoral College votes. While most states dole out all their Electoral College votes to the statewide winner of the presidential vote, Nebraska and Maine give out one electoral vote to the candidate who wins each congressional district.
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Despite the sudden rush of pressure from top Republicans, it’s unclear if Nebraska’s nonpartisan, unicameral Legislature would be able to make the change before its session ends in two weeks. One GOP state senator filed a previously introduced bill on the topic as an amendment to legislation further along in the process in the hopes of forcing a faster vote on it. But the measure could still face a possible filibuster.
If the change did occur, though, it would have far greater repercussions than it may initially seem.
Joe Biden won an electoral vote from the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District in 2020, meaning Trump’s 58% support statewide got him four of the five Nebraska electoral votes. Biden went on to win 306 Electoral College votes in 2020 to Trump’s 232, but the landscape has shifted significantly since then.
Battleground state polling shows states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin — states Trump lost in 2020 — are well within the presumptive Republican nominee’s reach this fall.
And if Trump is able to win back the key Sun Belt states he lost in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — then Nebraska’s split electoral vote becomes of paramount importance.