If a pandemic hits, you must deficit

THE DEFICITS KEEPING ON COMING

The sound you’re hearing is roughly 113 “back in black” mugs being tossed out of windows. As has been darkly prefaced through the week, the federal government is expected to record the largest budget deficit in modern history in today’s budget preview. The bottom line has been hit by the COVID-19 double punch of emergency spending ($164 billion) and a plunge in company tax receipts (down $25 billion).

Of course, the need for extraordinary government spending isn’t looking like passing anytime soon, so the deficit could increase by the actual budget in October.

Indeed, Simon Benson tells us over at The Australian that “Australia’s response to the COVID-19 crisis will saddle the nation with a record $850 billion gross debt bill and a combined budget blowout of almost $280 billion by mid-next year”.

But take heart — as Bernard Keane and Glenn Dyer argued in these pages yesterday, the stimulus is both necessary and affordable: “Australia has ample capacity to fund all this spending and much more. We’re on track for debt of about 30% of GDP — high by recent Australian standards but far below countries such as Canada, Germany, the US, the UK and Japan”.

AUSTRALIA RECORDS ITS SINGLE WORST DAY FOR COVID-19

The reason we’re planning for the deficit to continue to grow was laid out in the starkest possible terms yesterday. Australia had its highest number of new COVID-19 cases in a single day: 502. Any Melburnians hoping this means the blame is going to be shared around for a while are going to be sorely disappointed — the 484 recorded in that state alone still tops the previous high for the whole country. The rest were from New South Wales and a single case in Queensland.

While Victorian Premier Dan Andrews made no announcement on whether the current lockdown (covering the Melbourne metro area and the Mitchell Shire) would be extended or become more strict, according to unnamed “senior government figures” cited in the Oz, the “possibility of restrictions lasting many months, even if the current lockdown is eventually relaxed, have been discussed at the highest levels of government”.

According to government analysis, 90% of positive cases reported between July 7 and 21 did not isolate in the period between the development of their symptoms and getting tested. Andrews tacitly acknowledged this was largely down to the precarious nature of many people’s work:

“There is a large proportion of these people who are making these choices because, in their judgement, they will look at their bank balance, they’ll look at the fact if they don’t work the shift they won’t get paid for it, they don’t have sick leave,” he said.

Given the fact that roughly 80% of transmissions since mid-May are occurring in workplaces, the mooted expansion in the criteria for a one-off $1500 hardship payment to people who lose income by self-quarantining after a positive test seems the very least that could be done.

SORRY QANON — NO TWITS ALLOWED

What a day it must have been for conspiracy group QAnon. First US President Donald Trump wished Ghislaine Maxwell “well” as she faces charges for recruiting, grooming and ultimately sexually abusing minors as young as 14 as Jeffrey Epstein‘s accomplice. For the mercifully uninitiated, QAnon’s central thesis involves Trump fighting a secret war against an international cabal of elite Satan-worshipping paedophiles, so this must have caused them some consternation.

And then Twitter said it would no longer serve content and accounts associated with QAnon in trends and recommendations, and would block URLs and videos associated with the group from being shared on the platform.

The question immediately follows — what does this mean for Tim Stewart, (who posts under the nom de plume “Burn Notice”) a promoter of QAnon theories, and a long time friend of Scott Morrison who claims to have to the Prime Minister’s ear?