HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT A test for the U.S. ... After Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament in December 2001, India and Pakistan lined up more than a million soldiers on either side of their border, seemingly in preparation for war. But after the U.S. — which needed Pakistan for its post-9/11 war on terror in Afghanistan — intervened, India eventually backed off. The U.S. has once again turned to Pakistan for help in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, and President Donald Trump has said his team’s been in touch with both India and Pakistan to defuse tensions in the aftermath of the Feb. 14 attack. This time, though, it isn’t working … yet. … and China. With a price tag of $62 billion, the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor is by far the largest project within the BRI, the grand network of highways, ports and railroads Beijing is building to connect Asia, Africa and Europe. The problem? The highway passes through Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, which India claims. New Delhi has protested against the project as a violation of its sovereignty, but Beijing hasn’t budged. As it is, critics have raised questions about the economic viability of the CPEC. Now, India has demonstrated the project is within the range of its fighter jets, and Pakistan’s air defense isn’t robust enough to stop them, raising Chinese fears of a strike on the highway in the name of blocking terrorist movements. Shifting global winds. In some ways, though, the Indian strikes are an acknowledgment that its efforts at penalizing Pakistan through diplomacy haven’t worked. After the Feb. 14 attack, Indian officials said they would work with international partners to “isolate Pakistan.” But just this week, Trump’s top envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, publicly thanked Pakistan for facilitating the U.S.-Taliban talks that are the centerpiece of America’s efforts to find a respectable exit from the Afghan war. And China, Pakistan’s largest economic and strategic benefactor, has refused to criticize its friend. For Khan, and Pakistan’s military that many believe is the true power behind the PM, that could mean a position of support for the retaliation they’ve promised. But Modi won’t mind. Irrespective of how the world responds to the cross-border bombings, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stands politically strengthened today, ahead of the country’s national elections — the largest democratic exercise in history. Two weeks ago, his government was battling corruption allegations. Now, the national discourse in India is centered around tensions with Pakistan. If history is a guide, that’s good for Modi. National crises just ahead of elections have in the past helped incumbent governments return to power. In 1984, when then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated, her Congress party won a record majority in parliament. In 1999 the Bharatiya Janata Party — Modi’s party — returned to power after a brief war with Pakistan. Is it Modi’s turn? |
