🇮🇳 India gets an upgrade

What’s going on here?

S&P Global Ratings raised its outlook for India to positive from stable, citing strength in the world’s fifth-biggest economy.

What does this mean?

The boost from the firm sets the stage for an upgrade to India’s credit rating, and that’s huge. Right now, India is right on the edge of what’s considered “investment grade”: a label that tells folks that there’s very little risk of default. A higher credit rating would make the country's government bonds more attractive and lower its borrowing costs. Mind you, it could take two years for a rating improvement to happen – if it happens at all. The criteria for being bumped up are strict, requiring strong economic growth, political stability, and government spending discipline. Much of that shouldn’t be a problem for India, though: the country's economic growth is among the strongest in the world, its prime minister is expected to win reelection next month, and its budget shortfall has been steadily shrinking year after year.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: India rising.

India’s economy has been full steam ahead recently and shows no signs of slowing. The country has a young and growing workforce that’s helping its momentum, while much of the world is seeing its population age and shrink. And India’s ongoing infrastructure spending – massive projects that include roads, airports, rail, and energy – is helping to make it an increasingly important global manufacturing hub. Plus, all those upgrades should encourage more cash to pile in from home and abroad.

The bigger picture: Investing in India.

It’s natural to want to compare the investment picture in India to that of China, its similarly populous neighbor. China’s stocks are going cheap, but the country’s economic troubles and geopolitics present risks. India’s stocks, on the other hand, are pricier – but its economy is a rising star and expected to grow faster than any of its major peers in the coming years.

What’s going on here?

Deliveroo, Just Eat, Delivery Hero, and DoorDash are under pressure as their growth slows down and losses pile up.

What does this mean?

The hotshots of online food delivery in the US and Europe have racked up a whopping $20 billion in combined losses since they went public. That’s thanks to a changing consumer appetite and a cutthroat battle to offer the lowest prices. This crew of delivery startups rose to glory at the height of the pandemic, back when everyone was ordering meals in, but they’ve struggled to turn a profit. And now they’re facing the reality of high inflation and falling demand. What’s more, they’re under scrutiny from regulators and labor groups over workers’ rights and fair wages. And none of this is exactly a great recipe for growth and profit.

Why should I care?

Zooming out: Portion control.

For years, investors fed these companies with copious amounts of cash, betting that cheap deliveries would ultimately earn them a bigger slice of the pie and lead to that elusive profit. But as interest rates grew and even ultra-safe assets like bonds started offering decent returns, those bets became less appetizing. These pandemic-era darlings are starting to get the message: all four are aiming to have more cash coming in than going out by the end of the year. And that will likely require spending less or raising prices.

The bigger picture: Cautionary tales.

As growth in the food delivery industry slows, companies have two choices: merge or stick to markets they can dominate. After the spectacular fall of WeWork – the poster child for the “growth at all costs” strategy – startup mentality has been changing. And that’s got to be more palatable for investors. But the proof here will be in the pudding: it’s one thing to talk about profit, and quite another to achieve it.