🍾 Investors saw stars

What’s going on here?

Cava might be known as a cheaper alternative, but this restaurant chain’s New York Stock Exchange debut last week was pure, unadulterated luxury.

What does this mean?

Cava’s sort of like Chipotle, but with Mediterranean food. So investors, all too aware of how many Americans make a habit of paying extra for guac, were salivating at the chance to buy into what could be the next go-to lunchtime spot. That’s why investment bankers had already lifted the opening price of $22 a couple of times before the stock started trading, and that doubled over the course of the day. Cava swaggered off with a $5 billion valuation by the end of it, nearly nine times its sales last year. And get this: that’s around double Chipotle’s valuation, and Cava hasn’t ever turned a profit. But with only 260-ish stores around the US versus Chipotle’s 3,000-plus, the fledgling’s future will hinge on whether barbacoa-hooked Americans develop a hankering for falafel.

Why should I care?

For markets: Timing is everything.

Cava’s stock price might seem excessive, a bit like starving investors ordered way more than they could eat. But initial public offerings (IPOs) can be like that: there usually isn't much information around these new firms, which makes gauging a fair price tricky. Investors, then, often go off the general market mood. And this year, the S&P 500 is up 15%, the Nasdaq 100 nearly 40%, and Chipotle – Cava’s Mexican lookalike – almost 50%.

The bigger picture: Party like it's 2023.

Today’s market has more than a faint resemblance to the millennium bubble: the artificial intelligence buzz is mirroring the turn-of-the-century internet frenzy, and tech stocks are flying like they were back then. The IPO market, though, is distinctly flatter. While Cava’s marks an $8 billion running total in the US this year, that’s way behind 2021’s $154 billion – and a whole world away from the champagne-worthy $284 billion in 1999.

What’s going on here?

Citigroup sliced 5,000 jobs last week, signaling that Wall Street’s still being very frugal with its coins.

What does this mean?

Stock markets are pumped and IPOs are cropping up again, so you’d think Wall Street would be ready to party. Not quite: 11,000 workers have been given their marching orders, partly because a struggling Wall Street added too many new names to its books over the last couple of years. Some big-name players, though, are trying to hold onto their number crunchers, cutting costs by not replacing folks that leave or retire out of choice. So even though the investment banking sector’s in a bit of a lull, that’s a sign some firms think the party’s only on pause.

Why should I care?

For markets: Put the fancy cufflinks away for now.

Companies have been shaking hands on a lot fewer deals lately, leaving boardrooms crying out for some Succession-style action. But because those deals are usually funded with debt, they’re a lot more expensive to pull off now that interest rates are up at neck height. So even though the market’s in a heady spot, investment bankers will be waiting until it’s that little bit cheaper to sign the dotted line with their personalized fountain pens.

Zooming out: Alexa, play “Dolly Parton, 9 to 5”.

Here’s a riddle: big banks, Big Tech, and everyone in between seem to be shedding jobs this year, yet unemployment in the US is at record lows. Here’s what gives: for one, most workers toil away for small, slimmer, private companies that are less pressured by thirsty-for-profit shareholders. And for another, the labor participation rate – that’s the percentage of folks who can work and have a job – is at a 40-year low if you strip out the pandemic years. Since unemployment’s down low, you can assume a lot of Americans are simply choosing freelance hustles over slaving away for fat cats.