| | | | Thursday, February 13, 2025 | | 42 days until Opening Day ... | | We interrupt our regularly scheduled position preview series to bring you some free agency news. | | The final few dominoes are falling into place in the free agent marketplace, with Pete Alonso agreeing last week to return to the Mets and Alex Bregman and Nick Pivetta finally finding new homes. With that, each of the top 31 free agents in CBSSports.com's free agent rankings have signed, with just names like Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, and David Robertson available as Spring Training begins. And, while there may still be some trades that would qualify as legitimate breaking news, I think it kind of goes without saying the Andrew Heaney finding a new home won't be the kind of thing worth changing any content plans for. | | But Bregman matters enough to shift our focus for a day. Tomorrow, we'll be back to preview the starting pitcher position, but for today, let's dive into what Bregman's signing means for him and for the Red Sox, plus some thoughts on Pivetta's new home: | | Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OFPosition Previews: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OFPosition Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP | | | | Alex Bregman signs with the Red Sox | | This is pretty close to a best-case scenario landing spot for Bregman, who not only remains in a good home park for hitting but will also gain second base eligibility. That's no small deal, because second base is clearly the worst non-catcher position this season, and Bregman projects to my No. 6 second baseman once eligible there; he was the No. 10 third baseman before this move. | | Now, you might think, given the relative similarities between Houston's Daikin Field and Boston's Fenway Park that this should make for a clean transition when it comes to projecting Bregman's production. But it isn't quite that simple. Both have short porches in left field – 310 feet down the line in Fenway, 315 in Daikin – but the Green Monster in Fenway Park is 37 feet tall, while the Crawford Boxes are only 19 feet high. The Green Monster also runs some 200-plus feet almost to dead center field, while the fences in Houston reach a more normal height closer to left-center. | | Which is why, despite the superficial similarities, the former Minute Maid Park is a much better place for a hitter with Bregman's lift-and-pull swing to hit homers. How much better? According to Statcast data, Bregman would have hit 239 homers if he played every game of his career in Houston; it would be just 169 in Fenway. That's the second-most in any park, compared to the 18th-most. | | But it's not all bad. In fact, it might be, on the whole, a park upgrade for Bregman – Fenway has the fourth-best park factor for right-handed batters overall, while Daikin is just 14th. What Bregman figures to lose in homers, he could gain in singles, doubles, and triples, because Fenway is the second-best park in the majors for boosting batting average, behind only Coors Field. | | So, while Bregman may have trouble even getting to 20 homers in his new home, he could pull himself out of the .260-ish range in batting average he has lived in lately. And his contact-heavy approach should lead to plenty of RBI in Boston's solid lineup, to the point where I would feel comfortable projecting improvement on Bregman's 2024 production at the very least – something like a .280 batting average, 20 homers, 90 RBI, and 90 runs feels pretty reasonable. He's a top-10 third baseman in both points and Roto, and he might just end up a top-five option at second base. | | | | Red Sox prospect fallout | | A crowded situation gets even more crowded, and as things stand, it seems there's nowhere for Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony, or Marcelo Mayer to play to open the 2025 season. That's not the end of the world, seeing as all three have only really gotten a taste of Triple-A, but it's disappointing for Fantasy players, who were hoping to have at least one of them emerge early on in the season as a cheap contributor. | | That could still happen, but it would require multiple puzzle pieces falling into place now. The clearest path is seemingly for one of the infielders, Campbell or Mayer, because Trevor Story has had enough trouble staying on the field lately that an injury feels inevitable. Campbell is viewed as a second baseman long term, but spent about as much time at shortstop last season and is probably passable there, at least for now – Mayer profiles better there defensive long-term but probably isn't quite on the same level as a hitter. An injury to either Story or Bregman would likely create an opportunity, though the Red Sox might prefer to give Vaughn Grissom another chance (or just roll with David Hamilton if it's a short-term absence) rather than start the clock for one of the prospects. | | As for Anthony, he's arguably the best of the three, but the Red Sox are even more crowded in the outfield. That being said, Wilyer Abreu isn't much of a road block, and Ceddanne Rafaela's bat could regress to the point where he isn't playable even with his strong defense. And, of course, there's the DH spot, currently filled by Masataka Yoshida, who the Red Sox have reportedly looked into moving. | | As we like to say, life finds a way, and we'll probably see two of the Red Sox top prospects (at least!) at some point this season. However, the timetable for all three becoming everyday players may have just been pushed back to 2026, and none of the three look like even late-round targets if you don't have a deep bench. | | | | Nick Pivetta signs with the Padres | | The other big news Wednesday was significantly less, well, significant, though the fallout could be interesting in its own way. The Padres signed Pivetta to a four-year, $55 million deal, with that fourth year feeling like just a way to keep the AAV down for a team with a ton of luxury tax issues coming down the pike. And, given those concerns, it seems all but certain that this signing leads to one of Michael King or Dylan Cease getting moved. | | And it's not just because of money. The Padres have significant holes in the lineup, and while they ostensibly filled one with the platoon duo of Connor Joe and Jason Heyward for a corner outfield spot, they still have a need for a DH bat. They have already reportedly called the Orioles to see if they could get one of Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg , or Samuel Basallo for Cease. The Orioles predictably rebuffed them, because improving the major-league team seems to be less of a concern for the Orioles than maximizing value in every move they make. | | The Red Sox and Mets would also seem to be viable trade partners for the Padres, and if the Braves had any young depth of note, so would they. Cease and King are good enough that it shouldn't matter too much where they pitch, but leaving San Diego would probably merit a slight downgrade for either's Fantasy value if it were to happen. | | I've mostly skipped over actually analyzing the Pivetta of this all, because I just don't think he matters very much. San Diego is about as good a landing spot as you could hope for, with a decent outfield defense and faraway fences that should help mitigate his most homer-prone impulses. When he's on (and keeping the ball in the yard), Pivetta has convinced many Fantasy players and analysts that he might be an ace – this one included, way back in 2018. I don't expect an ERA that starts with a three at this point, but if he can keep it in the low-4.00s, Pivetta should provide a useful WHIP and plenty of strikeouts. It's a profile that tends to lead to big crooked numbers in bunches, but Pivetta is a useful enough option to fill out your rotation if you need strikeouts without killing your WHIP. | | | | | | | | Golazo Show | | Golazo Network | Watch every goal of the UEFA Europa League Knockout Phase Playoff all in one place with the Golazo Show, streaming live today at 12 PM ET on CBS Sports Golazo Network, our 24/7 network dedicated exclusively to global soccer coverage.
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