| | | | Wednesday, May 14, 2025 | | Every year, the Dodgers are supposed to have a pitching staff that is the absolute envy of the major leagues, and every year, they're piece-mealing this thing together. They didn't even make it to the summer this time, losing both Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell to shoulder injuries by April, with Roki Sasaki following them to the IL this week with a right shoulder impingement, leaving the Dodgers woefully short on MLB-caliber arms. | | But reinforcements are coming, of course. Tony Gonsolin is already back in the rotation and looking as good as ever, and he'll be followed in short order by Clayton Kershaw, who will make his season debut Saturday, the team announced Tuesday. | | Kershaw is coming back from knee and toe surgeries this offseason, but he's back quite a bit sooner than I expected. The key question here is, "How much does the 37-year-old have left in the tank?" And, unfortunately, with all respect due to the best starting pitcher of this generation, I'm not sure we should be expecting much. | | Now, it's worth noting that betting against the future Hall-of-Famer hasn't gone too well in recent years. While he has had a lot of trouble staying healthy, Kershaw has mostly managed to remain extremely effective, running a 2.37 ERA in 258 combined innings in 2022 and 2023. But he wasn't able to get back to that level in 2024, and on his minor-league rehab assignment this season, his velocity is down another couple of ticks, to 87.5 mph. It didn't matter much against overmatched minor-leaguers, as Kershaw had a 2.57 ERA in his 21 innings across five starts, but he also managed just 16 strikeouts in those 21 innings, including just eight in 12 innings at Triple-A. | | That doesn't mean Kershaw can't be effective, of course – his control figures to remain precise, and maybe he can keep runs off the board with some combination of elite command and veteran guile. But I'm worried Kershaw is going to have to work extra hard just to keep his head above water this time, and his chances of being a meaningful difference-maker for Fantasy are awfully low as a result. | | I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to eat my words on this one – I'll be rooting for myself to be wrong. But I can't suggest Kershaw as a run-out-and-add-him Fantasy target at this point in his career. It just feels like asking too much. | | Here's what else you need to know about from Tuesday's action around MLB: | | | | Wednesday's top waiver-wire targets | | Logan Henderson, SP, Brewers (23%) – Henderson started to gain a bit of hype this spring, and then that exploded with his brilliant MLB debut when he struck out nine over six one-run innings against the Athletics. He went back down to Triple-A after that one, where he has a 2.40 ERA and 34.8% strikeout rate in 30 innings, and now he's getting another chance against the Guardians Wednesday. That's not the easiest matchup, but his excellent changeup should help neutralize the Guardians left-handed bats, and after his dominant first turn, I think you've got to add him just in case there's something real here. Can he force the Brewers to keep him up for good this time? I'm rooting for it. | | Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers (70%) – It's been so hard to figure out who Jung is because he's missed so much time, but we've seen him be a very useful power-hitting Fantasy option in the past and he's looking like one again right now. He clubbed a pair of three-run homers Tuesday, giving him four in the past seven games, and now has his season-long OPS up to .807. Jung's .497 expected slugging percentage suggests that it isn't a fluke, either, and his power should play in any type of Fantasy league at this point. | | Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (57%) – Baez's resurgence has been one of the most unexpected developments of the season. And one of the most fun. After three mostly disastrous seasons to kick off his Detroit career – Baez hit .221/.262/.347 in his first three seasons with the Tigers, in case you forgot – Baez has been one of the team's best players this season, playing multiple positions (including center field!) and enjoying an offensive resurgence. I don't see much in the underlying numbers to suggest there's much going on here – his .291 xwOBA is better than any season since he left Chicago but still pretty bad – but he just keeps hitting, including two homers Tuesday. All five of his homers for the season have come in the past 14 games, during which time he has 23 RBI and a very strong 11% barrel. The likeliest outcome here is Baez inevitably flames out, but it's been fun while it's happening. | | | | Yimi Garcia, RP, Blue Jays (10%) – I don't necessarily think Jeff Hoffman is totally finished as the Blue Jays closer, but they've gotta give him a chance to reset after yet another blown save Thursday. This one was an epic meltdown, as Hoffman gave up five runs on a walk and four hits, and he now has a 24.75 ERA in the month of May. He's still getting plenty of strikeouts and has a minuscule walk rate, so I think eventually he'll be fine. But The Blue Jays have to give Garcia a shot here for at least a few tries until Hoffman gets right. | | Drake Baldwin, C, Braves (16%) – Is Baldwin going to force some tough conversations in Atlanta? He struggled to make an impact when Sean Murphy was out, but the process always looked good – he had a good approach at the plate (especially for a rookie!) and was hitting the ball hard even when he wasn't getting the results. Well, the results are there now. He went 3 for 4 with a home run Tuesday, his fourth of the season and second in his past six games to push his season-long line to .329/.382/.557. As a rookie catcher. I think on a pure talent level, Baldwin is right there with Agustin Ramirez or Ivan Herrera, but obviously, the playing time is going to be much harder to come by. But in a deeper two-catcher league, I think he's a good enough hitter to be worth rostering even in the smaller side of a timeshare. And that share might just keep growing. | | Connor Norby, 3B, Marlins (36%) – Norby is starting to do it again. He was a productive hitter despite pretty underwhelming quality of contact metrics last season, and now he finds himself with a .749 OPS for the season after he homered and tripled in Thursday's game against the Cubs. He has hit safely in eight straight games with a homer and two steals in that span, and he continues to do a good job of hitting the ball in the air to the pull side, maximizing his otherwise middling raw power. I don't think Norby is much more than a mid-.700s OPS bat, but he has nine homers and seven steals in 58 games since getting to Miami last season, a 24-homer, 18-steal pace. That'll play in most category leagues. | | | | Tuesday's standouts | | Dylan Cease, Padres vs. LAA: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – I never got too concerned about Cease's struggles, because this is just who he is. He goes through stretches where he looks unusable, and then he looks like an ace the very next start. That's not to say there haven't been any changes – Cease is just spamming his slider lately, throwing it an absurd 65% of the time in this one. Hey, if they can't hit it (21 whiffs!) why not keep throwing it? | | Framber Valdez, Astros vs. KC: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Valdez turned to the trick that turned his season around in 2024, leaning on his curveball as his primary pitch in this one, and it was incredibly effective. He generated 11 of his 14 whiffs with the pitch while allowing just four balls in play with a 75 mph average exit velocity. It's been a bit of a bumpy ride for Valdez, but he's also more or less been what you expected, with a mid-3.00s ERA, useful WHIP, and strong volume. That's usually how the Framber Valdez experience works out. | | Spencer Schwellenbach , Braves vs. WAS: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – I know Schwellenbach is good. It's just a question of how good, and on that front, it's been a pretty disappointing start to the season for him. The 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP are obviously excellent, but the strikeouts have been especially disappointing, with more strikeouts than innings pitched just twice to date. His slider was on point in this one, generating six whiffs, but his splitter and curveball haven't been as effective as last season, while his four-seamer has just gotten crushed (94.2 mph average exit velocity, .402 xwOBA). I think we might have gotten out over our skis in declaring Schwellenbach an ace. | | Bryan Woo, Mariners vs. NYY: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – If there were no injury concerns, I would probably rank Woo ahead of Schwellenbach, and maybe I just need to do it. He's been consistently going six-plus innings over the past three months dating back to the end of last season with no real impact on his performance. He's got a legit five-pitch mix where every pitch does something well – either generates weak contact or swings and misses (or both). Woo had enough injury scares last season that I'm hesitant to fully buy-in, but he's not far from a top-15 SP at this point. | | Robbie Ray, Giants vs. ARI: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – With three walks and three earned runs allowed in the first inning, it looked like Ray was going to undo a lot of his good work in recent weeks in this one. But he settled in masterfully, showcasing the most full four-pitch mix I think we've ever seen from him, as Ray threw his curveball and changeup 21 and 18 times, respectively. And both were excellent – the change missed a bunch of bats, while the curve generated a bunch of weak contact. Consistency, especially with his command, has always been an issue for Ray, but I really like what we're seeing from him right now. He just might live up to all that preseason hype after all. | | Kris Bubic, Royals @HOU: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – My performance concerns are mostly gone with Bubic, who has mostly sustained his performance from last year's relief role. The one question I have moving forward – and the thing keeping me from moving him too high in my rankings – is that there's gotta be some kind of innings cap coming. He pitched less than 50 in each of the previous two seasons due to injuries and has never reached 150 in a season before. Can he get to 150? That feels like it's probably the ceiling for Bubic, so there is going to come a point where they have to pull back on him, I would guess. It does make Bubic something of a sell-high candidate. | | Kodai Senga, Mets vs. PIT: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – I still think this is all going to come crashing down around Senga at some point. He did throw his forkball a bunch more than usual in this one, which was a good idea because it's clearly his best pitch, and it generated 11 whiffs on 29 swings as a result. He almost never throws that pitch in the strike zone, but he can make it work because he generates so many uncomfortable swings on it. Maybe that's the answer, but his middling overall strikeout rate, mediocre control, and lack of efficiency make Senga one of the more clear sell-high candidates in baseball with his 1.22 ERA. | | Shane Baz, Rays @TOR: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – To his credit, Baz recognized the need for adjustments, and he threw his slider a season-high 11 times. And, while it generated just one whiff, it did garner five foul balls, which is a good sign that hitters weren't seeing it super well. But he continues to disappoint, mostly because he's just throwing way too many pitches in the strike zone – 57% of the time in this one, 56% for the season. He isn't generating enough chases, and he isn't missing bats in the strike zone, and until he changes at least one of those things, I think Baz is going to continue to be a disappointment. | | Andrew Abbott, Reds vs. CHW: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – I've been skeptical about Abbott for a long time now, but this was exactly what I wanted to see from him in this matchup. He tunnels his pitches well, and maybe that's enough to continue to outrun his peripherals. I think he's more likely to pitch to a mid-to-high-3.00s ERA than his current 2.10 ERA, but I've been consistently too low on him for a while, so maybe I'm not the right person to listen to. | | Mitch Keller, Pirates @NYM: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – It's these starts that are actually the most frustrating from Keller because it's like, "Why can't you do this every time out?" It's because pitching against major-league hitters is really hard, Chris, why don't you try it? You can't count on Keller for eight four-seamer whiffs every time out (he had just a 12% whiff rate with the pitch entering this start, though his velocity was closer to where it was last season, which was good to see), and the rest of his deep arsenal is relatively light on putaway pitches. When he's on, Keller can dominate, but he just isn't on often enough to be much more than a low-end rotation filler. We know this by now. | | Jack Leiter, Rangers vs. COL: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Given the matchup, this wasn't a great start. But it was good enough where, if you haven't dropped him yet, you probably shouldn't yet. He got at least three whiffs with four different pitches and filled up the strike zone well, which was good to see. But he also probably got lucky to be facing the worst lineup in baseball away from Coors Field, so you certainly can't trust Leiter in your lineup yet. But I'm hanging on to him in the hopes he gets there because the stuff is electric. | | Jacob Wilson , SS, Athletics – Wow. Four hits, including two homers? Power wasn't supposed to be a part of Wilson's game, but he's up to five on the season now, and Tuesday's weren't exactly cheapies – he hit the first 374 feet down the left field line, while the second was hit 392 feet to left-center. Wilson's power is still pretty fringe-y, but it's what he needs to show with pitchers filling up the strike zone at a 54% clip against him – these kinds of all-contact, zero-power type prospects tend to get overwhelming against major-league pitchers who can challenge them in the zone. That hasn't been an issue for Wilson, whose outlier contact skills look a lot like Luis Arraez's. Wilson kind of has the same issue Arraez does, where he almost has to be among the league leaders in batting average to have much appeal for Fantasy because of his lack of power, speed, and patience at the plate. But he's making it all work right now, and while I do think he's probably a sell-high candidate, I don't think the bottom is necessarily about to fall out. | | News and notes | | Welcome back, Ronald Acuña – kind of. He made his first appearance in a rehab game Tuesday and looked like himself, homering and playing a solid outfield by all accounts. I'm hoping we'll see him after two weeks of rehab games, but that might be too optimistic. | | Corey Seager was placed on the IL with a right hamstring strain for the second time this season. The Rangers activated Kyle Higashioka. | | Rays manager Kevin Cash said Shane McClanahan still feels some discomfort in his left triceps when playing catch from 60 feet. At this point, I don't think you can really expect anything from McClanahan the rest of the way. | | Rangers reliever Chris Martin came on for the save in the 9th and then left after throwing one pitch and allowing a hit. Turns out he left with right elbow tightness, one day after Luke Jackson was forced out after being hit by a comebacker on the hand. Jackson is hoping to avoid the IL, but Shawn Armstrong got the save with Martin and Jackson out and could be a low-end speculative add. | | Ian Happ was placed on the IL with a left oblique strain, retroactive to May 10. One interesting note as a result of this was Pete Crow-Armstrong's ascension to the leadoff spot. I have no idea how long that will last, but it could turbocharge PCA's breakout if he stays up there. | | Oneil Cruz has missed three straight due to his sore back. | | Josh Smith has missed two straight with a sore lower back. | | Anthony Santander returned to the lineup after missing three in a row with a shoulder injury. | | Luis Robert returned to action after missing two games with right knee soreness. And he stole a base, his 16th of the season. Nice to see. | | The Yankees placed Oswaldo Cabrera on the IL with a left ankle fracture. DJ LeMahieu was reinstated but not in the lineup. | | Yu Darvish will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Wednesday. | | He's working his way back from right elbow inflammation, and at 62% rostered is probably about as widely rostered as he should be. | | Josh Lowe could be activated this weekend against the Marlins. He's been out since Opening Day with an oblique injury but still has some upside if the oblique doesn't linger and mess up his swing. | | Luis Garcia Jr. was placed on the paternity list. Trey Lipscomb was recalled. | | Max Scherzer was unable to throw as scheduled Tuesday because of back tightness. | | Cardinals pitching prospect Quinn Mathews will make a rehab start this week with the Cardinals' Florida Complex League affiliate. He's been out since April with mild left shoulder soreness. | | The Astros will recall Colton Gordon from Triple-A to start Wednesday against the Royals. The 26-year-old has a 2.55 ERA at Triple-A this season, but I'm not expecting much. If he impresses Wednesday, we'll see about adding him. | | Yandy Diaz was placed on the restricted list due to a passport issue and the team playing in Toronto. | | TJ Friedl left Tuesday due to right wrist soreness. He had a collision with Elly in the outfield. | | Alex Cora said that "as of now" Tanner Houck will make his next start Sunday against the Braves. He probably shouldn't. | | Ben Lively was placed on the IL with a right flexor strain. | | | | | | | | PGA Championship | | 24/7 Sports News | Watch as McIlroy aims for back-to-back major championships, Scheffler tries to stay hot and the rest of an elite field competes at Quail Hollow. Watch the third and final round of the PGA Championship at 1 ET this Saturday and Sunday on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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