| | | | Tuesday, July 1, 2025 | | How bad was Chase Burns' start Monday night against the Red Sox? Well, he didn't get out of the first inning and was tagged for five earned runs (seven total) on five hits and a couple of walks while recording just one out, so … It was really, really bad! | | It was just the ninth start of the season where a pitcher failed to get out of the first inning while allowing at least five runs, which, to be honest, is more than I expected this season. But, with Burns so early in his career, I wanted to see if there were other examples of rookie pitchers who struggled this badly in a start and still went on to have success as a rookie, so I fired up Baseball-Reference.com's Stathead tool to look. | | Here's where I set the parameters: Less than one inning pitched, at least five runs allowed as a starter in a pitcher's first 10 career appearances over the past decade. And you know what: There are a few pretty good pitchers who struggled through at least one start like this this early in their careers. Just last year, in fact, Yoshinobu Yamamoto gave up five runs in his very first MLB start, and that has somehow not kept him from enjoying a very successful career so far. Jose Berrios also had a similar start as a rookie, as did Eury Perez, and it didn't wreck either of their careers. | | That's not an especially long list of pitchers who have had a start this bad early in their careers and went on to have successful careers (or, in Perez's case, look on their way to one), of course. I recognize that. It's rare for any pitcher to struggle this badly at any point in their career. But I bring up Yamomoto, Berrios, and Perez to highlight that, as discouraging and frustrating as this game was from Burns, it doesn't necessarily mean he can't be a good pitcher. And it doesn't really change how I view him moving forward. | | | | As bad as Burns was, he averaged 99.3 mph on his four-seamer, and his slider still had plenty of bite. The command was, I think it goes without saying, awful, as he left a bunch of sliders up in the zone and caught too much of the plate with his four-seamer, too. Your command has to be terrible to have a start this bad, and there's good reason to believe Burns was tipping his pitches – his glove placement and leg raise were slightly different when he threw his four-seamer compared to his slider, and against major-league hitters, that might be enough to ruin your night. | | The stuff is still terrific, and I'm still willing to bet on Burns figuring things out and becoming an impact arm for Fantasy. Am I less convinced of that than I was a few hours ago? Sure, you'd have to be, especially in the near term. But let's not forget that stretch from Jesus Luzardo about a month ago, where he gave up 20 runs in just 5.2 innings of work and totally wrecked his season-long ratios; in four starts since then, he has a 2.78 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 22.2 innings of work. | | So, let your faith in Burns be shaken by this start. But don't give up on him. He's still one of the most talented young arms in baseball, and one start doesn't change that. One start, even one as bad as this one, will never define a pitcher. Whatever went wrong for Burns Monday night, I have faith he'll get it sorted out, and in the long run, this will go down as just a footnote in a successful career. | | Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB: | | | | Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets | | Austin Hays, OF, Reds (48%) – He just keeps on hitting. This time, it was a homer, a triple, and three RBI in a 2 for 4 game against the Red Sox Monday that pushes his season-long OPS back over .900. Is Hays that good? Not necessarily, but his underlying stats are the best they've ever been, and he calls one of the best hitters' parks in baseball home for half of his games, so I just don't see much point in being skeptical. Hays is going to hit something like .260 with at least a 25-homer pace the rest of the way, and the biggest thing holding him back is just health right now. But while he's out there, I think Hays might just be a top-36 outfielder. | | Gary Sanchez, C, Orioles (26%) – I didn't expect to get to this point, but I think Sanchez might be more or less a must-add player in two-catcher leagues if you need help at the position. He went 2 for 5 with three RBI Monday and now has multiple hits in three of his past four games, and he's now hitting .370/.431/.674 since returning from the IL in mid-June. With Adley Rutschman on the IL for at least a few more weeks, Sanchez is in line to play pretty much every day (often at DH), and he's showing a lot of upside right now. He'll slow down at some point, but if you don't have a difference maker at catcher, I think it's fine to play the hot hand with Sanchez while it lasts. | | Ryne Nelson, SP, Diamondbacks (64%) – That fastball is something else. He throws it hard, but not exceptionally so – at 95.5 mph on average, he's right around the 70th percentile among major-league pitchers these days. But he throws it from a super-high arm slot after a funky, slow-then-fast delivery that really seems to give opposing hitters fits. He generated 13 of his 15 swinging strikes Monday with the four-seamer, and he did that despite throwing it 70% of the time. Nelson is pretty much the most fastball-heavy pitcher in baseball these days – among 80 pitchers with at least 200 innings since the start of last season, none have thrown their fastball more often than Nelson's 57.4% rate – and you would think hitters would catch up to it at some point. But he's down to a 3.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the past calendar year, so it hasn't been an issue yet. It's a weird approach, but he's made it work for him with one outlier pitch, and I think it makes sense to just keep riding him until hitters figure it out. | | Trevor Rogers, SP, Orioles (38%) – Rogers' fastball was positively Nelsonian tonight, generating a genuinely absurd 14 whiffs on 27 swings. This one is tougher to make sense of. Rogers' four-seamer was a pretty good pitch back in 2021, when he was average 94.5 mph with it and playing it off a genuinely great changeup; on Monday, he averaged 93.1 with it and had just two whiffs with his changeup, which continues to look like a much diminished version of its former self. Rogers' success Monday was probably more about the state of the Rangers' offense than anything Rogers is doing, but credit where it's due, as he has a 2.05 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in four MLB starts so far this season. It has come with 18 strikeouts and six walks in 22 innings, which is hardly exciting, but he's getting the job done and clearly has a spot in the rotation for as long as he can keep it. Rogers is pretty far down the list of interesting pitchers I'm looking to add these days, but he's been effective enough lately that I'm willing to add him in some deeper leagues to see if my hunch is wrong. It doesn't hurt that his start next week looks like it'll come against a beatable Marlins lineup. | | Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles (30%) – Okay, this one is totally speculative. But the Orioles are going to add their third catcher to the IL after Chadwick Tromp left with a back injury, and at some point, they've got to give Basallo a look, right? Sanchez is holding things down right now, but he's already been spending time at DH, and Basallo has plenty of experience at first base, so I don't think this is a situation where he'd get called up and struggle to find playing time. And Basallo has been dominant at Triple-A, especially lately, hitting .318/.452/.667 in June with more walks than strikeouts. Ideally, the Orioles would probably like to get Basallo a bit more seasoning. But it sure looks like he can help them right now, and there's a need for it, so let's add him just in case. | | | | Monday's standouts | | Zack Wheeler, Phillies vs. SD: 8 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – We usually don't write about star pitchers pitching like stars here, but with a relatively light schedule Monday, I wanted to highlight what Wheeler is doing. He's not quite as good as Tarik Skubal, and he's a lot older than Paul Skenes , so he kind of got overshadowed by those two in draft season as the old, safe, boring choice among the aces. But he's been anything but boring this season, sporting a 2.36 ERA and the highest strikeout rate of his career. He's been a top-five pitcher in Fantasy so far and should continue to be so moving forward. Is this the year he finally gets a Cy Young? I think I'd put him in the driver's seat for the National League right now. | | Garrett Crochet, Red Sox vs. CIN: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Maybe there was something in the air in Boston Monday night. Crochet wasn't nearly as bad as Burns, but this was arguably his worst start of the season, and just the third time in 18 starts he has allowed more than even two earned runs so far this season. If anything, this start just highlights how hilariously, absurdly dominant Crochet has been so far this season. | | George Kirby, Mariners vs. KC: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Kirby has looked a bit off since coming back from his shoulder injury, but he's starting to show signs of figuring it out lately, with one earned run allowed in each of his past two starts. Kirby was living in the upper half of the zone with his four-seamer in this one, and when he missed, he tended to miss above the zone, which is what we want to see; when he missed with his slider, he did tend to leave them in the middle of the zone more often than you'd like in this one, but the Royals weren't really able to make him pay for that. Kirby isn't all the way back yet, as shown by the fact that he didn't throw a single splitter Monday, a pitch he has struggled to get the feel for so far this season. But he's getting by with what he does have, and I generally think there's nowhere to go but up from here, which isn't a bad thing from a guy who just finished June with a 3.27 ERA. I'm pretty sure he's going to be just fine. | | Drew Rasmussen, Rays vs. ATH: 3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – I kind of feel like Rasmussen is more trouble than he's worth. That's an exaggeration, but I find him extremely frustrating. He's a very good pitcher, but also an extremely limited one because of how the Rays use him; their extremely short leash gives him very little margin for error within his starts and limits his upside even when things are going well. Rasmussen still has elite ratios (2.78 ERA, 1.00 WHIP on the season), but he's a mediocre strikeout pitcher who rarely pitches deep into games, and I'd be open to targeting someone with slightly worse ratios but a bit more upside, especially since Rasmussen has already pitched as many innings this season as his previous two combined. | | Jacob Lopez, Athletics @TB: 3.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – Well, if things were going to go wrong for Lopez, I actually thought it would be a lot uglier than this. He pitched well for the first few innings, but the Rays really jumped on him in the fourth inning for three runs and four hard-hit balls before he was chased. Lopez still produced seven batted balls with an expected batting average below .200, but he also generated just three swings and misses, so it's not like he was fooling the Rays hitters. The concern with Lopez is that he's succeeding mostly on the strength of, for lack of a better word, how weird he is – his delivery, his release point, and his movement profiles are all unique for a left-handed pitcher – and as hitters get more looks at him, he could lose effectiveness. The raw stuff isn't great, and Lopez gives up a lot of fly balls, so things could get ugly quickly. We're not at the point where I'm ready to give up on Lopez, certainly, but I worry his margin for error may not be particularly wide. | | Max Scherzer, Blue Jays vs. NYY: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Given the matchup, it's hard to ask for more than that from Scherzer in his second start back from Triple-A. Scherzer's velocity was up a bit, and his command was very strong, which is not always a given when a pitcher is in his first few starts back from injury. On the other hand, Scherzer was pulled after just 71 pitches, with manager John Schneider noting that his thumb is still an issue. That makes it harder to buy into Scherzer as much more than an end-of-rotation option at best. | | Andrew Heaney, Pirates vs. STL: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Heaney has flashed some upside at times this season, but he also has a 5.21 ERA since the start of May, so while this was a nice start, it's hard to get excited about him at this point. He's a decent streamer for his next start against the Mariners in Seattle, but I can't say he's much more than that. | | Matt Waldron, Padres @PHI: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 3 K – Waldron struggled in his first start back, but it wasn't because the knuckleball wasn't working; the problem is he gave up a 94.9 mph average exit velocity on six batted balls on his three other pitches. The fact that Waldron threw the knuckleball 74% of the time is generally a good sign, so while he didn't do anything to justify adding him here, I'll keep an eye on Waldron's next couple of starts to see if he can start to figure it out. | | News and notes | | Jeremy Peña was placed on the IL Monday due to a rib fracture on his left side. Hopefully, this one isn't too serious, but it's frustrating to see another Astros star dealing with a more serious injury than the team initially let on. I'm just assuming the worst from now on with these guys, I guess. | | Corbin Carroll will begin taking dry swings on Tuesday, first time swinging a bat since going on the IL with that chip fracture in his left wrist. That seems like a much quicker timetable than expected, so hopefully he continues to make progress and his absence can be counted in weeks, not months. | | Hunter Greene is scheduled to throw a bullpen on Wednesday. He'll throw again this weekend and, if all goes well, should begin a rehab assignment sometime next week as he works his way back from groin and back injuries. | | Wyatt Langford is expected to return from the IL when first eligible on Saturday. That's a good sign that the injury wasn't too serious, so hopefully it doesn't derail him too much. | | Alex Bregman told reporters he is feeling great and will have his status reassessed this weekend, and he's talking about potentially skipping a minor-league rehab assignment – though manager Alex Cora was a bit more cautious in his assessment, so it's not 100% certain Bregman will be back before the All-Star break. | | Shane McClanahan is scheduled to throw a full-intensity bullpen session Tuesday. Hopefully, that goes well, as his recovery from a nerve issue in his left arm has been marked by a few false starts already. | | Bo Bichette was scratched from Monday's lineup due to right knee discomfort. He's day-to-day and isn't expected to undergo additional testing, but it's a little worrisome as that right leg has given him some problems over the past few years. | | Hunter Goodman is expected to go on the IL with his hamstring strain. | | George Springer left after a hard slide at third base, where he banged his head off Jazz Chisholm's knee. He is expected to play on Tuesday. | | Trent Grisham left early with left hamstring tightness. | | Josh Naylor has missed three straight due to neck spasms. | | Matt Chapman may be able to return when the Giants begin their next homestand July 7. | | Anthony Santander is nearing the start of a hitting progression. It turns out he suffered a partial dislocation of his shoulder back in early May, not just inflammation, which explains the lengthy stay on the IL. | | Jordan Westburg said Monday that it's likely his injured left index finger won't be 100% for a while, but he's hoping it will be good enough to play within a day or two. I wouldn't mind if he went on the IL to try to let it fully heal, honestly. | | Austin Wells will be unavailable the next couple days due to a circulation issue in a finger on his left hand. | | As expected, Zach Eflin was placed on the IL with lower back discomfort. | | Tyler Mahle has been diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain and will not return until August at the earliest. | | Jake Burger will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday and is expected to be activated this weekend. | | Tyler O'Neill could be activated at some point during the Orioles' current road trip. | | Charlie Morton's next start has been pushed back from Tuesday to Friday due to low-grade right elbow tendinitis. | | The A's promoted outfield prospect Colby Thomas, but the plan is to primarily use him as a pinch-hitter against left-handed relievers for now. Tyler Soderstrom has really struggled against lefties, so this could cost him some playing time. | | Casey Schmitt was placed on the IL with a bone bruise in his left wrist. Tyler Fitzgerald was recalled. | | | | | | | | Collegiate Women Sports Awards | | 24/7 Sports News | Tonight, see who takes home the Honda Cup! The Collegiate Women Sports Awards are live at 7 ET on CBS Sports Network.
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