| | | | Thursday, April 11, 2024 | | If you're looking for a Fantasy Baseball analyst who makes significant changes to their rankings in the first few weeks of the season, I'm not your guy. Which makes things like the Trade Values Chart that I do every week kind of tough, because there just isn't going to be much movement there in April. | | But that doesn't mean I'm not making any moves. As I wrote earlier this week, I've moved Jared Jones, Mackenzie Gore, and Bryce Miller way up in my rankings, and I did the same with Reid Detmers yesterday. And, as I wrote in the Trade Values Chart column, I'm starting to run out of faith in Carlos Rodon, who has some incredibly troubling signs showing up in his profile when you look under the hood. | | But the thing is, it's still so early in the season, and I'm just not going to react to just a few weeks worth of games for the most part. I'm thrilled to see Christian Yelich and Mike Trout off to such good starts to the season, for example, but I'm not necessarily sure we've learned anything new about either of them: They're really good players when they are healthy, and both are healthy right now, so they're playing really well. Duh. | | Similarly, I'm just not at all going to react to Nolan Jones' slow start. He has been terrible, to be clear, hitting just .157/.246/.235 through his first 13 games with a 40.4% strikeout rate. But the thing is, that's not even the worst stretch of 13 games Jones has had over the past calendar year; he hit .154/.250/.154 with a 34% strikeout rate over 13 games last June/July. He went on to hit .301/.395/.573 over the final 69 games immediately after that stretch. | | | | I know that for some Fantasy players, that's not what you want to hear. You want me to tell you to drop Nolan Jones, because you're frustrated watching him drag your team down, and you want to punish him for his transgressions against your otherwise perfect team. But, again, if you're looking for someone to overreact to the first two weeks of the season, it isn't going to be. If you want to drop Jones – or Alex Bregman or Nico Hoerner or whichever player is stuck in your particular craw – you aren't going to get my blessing to do so. | | If you want to get a sense of which players' value has changed in the early going, may I suggest you check out Scott White's column from Wednesday, where he goes through the biggest risers and fallers in his latest weekly rankings updates. You're not going to see too many drastic changers there either, but it'll give you a good sense of where the Fantasy landscape stands after a couple of weeks. | | In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got the biggest waiver-wire targets from Wednesday's action, plus breakdowns of all the other performances and news you need to know about. Let's get to it. | | | | Wednesday's top waiver targets | | | | Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Blue Jays (71%) – I'm really not sure why Kikuchi doesn't get more respect. While Nick Pivetta 's partial-season breakout in 2023 earned him a top-180 ADP, Kikuchi slid to 244.8 and went undrafted in many leagues. Maybe it's because he struggled in the spring, but either way, Kikuchi looks like one of the better values at the SP position after lowering his ERA to 2.30 with six excellent innings against the Mariners Wednesday. He has 20 strikeouts in 15.2 innings so far this season, and has a 3.57 ERA with 193 strikeouts in 33 starts over the past calendar year. He should be universally rostered. | | Cody Bradford, SP, Rangers (69%) – I can't quite figure out how Bradford is pulling this off. Well, okay, I can at least partially explain Wednesday's success, since it came against the lowly A's. But still, he has a 1.39 ERA through three starts, which is awfully low for a guy with a career 4.35 ERA in the minors. He's had elite control, which has carried over from the minors, but he's also done a terrific job limiting hard contact so far – he's basically doing a Kyle Hendricks impersonation right now. The problem with buying in for the long haul is two-fold: For one thing, we just don't know how long he'll be in the rotation with Michael Lorenzen expected to join the team soon; and two, it just takes a whole lot longer than three good starts to know if suppressing hard contact the way Bradford is, is a real skill. There's a lot of noise in quality-of-contact metrics for pitchers, which just makes it hard to buy in here. Still, given the way he's pitching, I think you have to add him if he's available in your league, just in case. | | Ivan Herrera, C, Cardinals (9%) – Plans have a way of changing, and Herrera seems to be changing the Cardinals plans in the early going. He crushed his third homer of the season Wednesday, and I do mean "crushed" – it was a 432-foot, 112.4 mph blast that represents the hardest-hit ball of Herrera's career. He has a 91.1 mph average exit velocity this season and has been so good that the Cardinals have played WIllson Contreras at DH the past two games while Herrera has started at catcher. I don't necessarily think that means Contreras is just going to be the DH moving forward, but Herrera hit well enough in the minors (.280/.391/.432) that it's not inconceivable to think that the Cardinals' best lineup most days might feature both him and Contreras. In two-catcher leagues where I don't have a second catcher I like, I'm looking to add Herrera. | | Jose Caballero, SS, Rays (35%) – I think I still prefer Brice Turang if I'm looking for some speed from a MI spot, but Caballero is off to an interesting start in his own right. The Rays deservedly get a lot of credit for maximizing guys like Isaac Paredes, and there was some talk this spring of Caballero trying to follow in his footsteps. Wednesday's was his first homer of the season, so it hasn't necessarily been taken yet, but he has 30-plus steal upside, so if there's even 10 homers in Caballero's bat, the whole profile starts to look more interesting. | | Jeff Hoffman, RP, Phillies (11%) – Jose Alvarado hadn't pitched since Monday and was presumably available, so it's interesting that it was Hoffman who got the save opportunity, his first of the season. Hoffman emerged as a very good reliever for the Phillies last season, and while his velocity is down a bit, he's getting a ton of grounders and has high strikeout upside, so he could get the job done if the Phillies opt to use him more as a closer. If you're desperate and speculating on saves, he's worth considering. | | | | News and Notes | | Kodai Senga (shoulder) was transferred to the 60-day IL. It doesn't sound like he's had a setback or anything, but now we at least know that he won't be back until late May at the earliest. Senga hasn't thrown off a mound yet, so he probably wasn't going to beat that timeline anyway, though he remains worth stashing if you have the IL spot to play with. | | J.T. Realmuto was back in the lineup Wednesday after a breaking ball bounced off the plate and hit him in the neck Tuesday night. | | Brandon Lowe will undergo an MRI on his right oblique, but Rays manager Kevin Cash said it's "fair to say he will miss some time." Junior Caminero took live BP and fielded grounders on Wednesday, so hopefully he'll be back from his quad injury and can potentially serve as a reinforcement for the beat-up Rays sometime soon. | | Lars Nootbaar could be activated from the IL Friday. He started the season on the IL due to two non-displaced fractures in his left rib cage. Victor Scott's time on the roster is probably running out. | | Anthony Volpe was moved up to the leadoff spot with Gleyber Torres sliding down to sixth. Volpe is off to a terrific start to the season, and though I'm not necessarily sure I buy it, if he's going to hit leadoff for the Yankees, it might not matter if he regresses. | | Brandon Marsh was moved up to sixth in the Phillies lineup with Bryson Stott sliding down to eighth. Stott has also already sat a few times against lefties, which is a concern for his Fantasy upside. I'm not giving up yet, but … well, there's a reason I didn't have Stott on any of my teams coming into the season. | | Danny Jansen began a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Wednesday. Alejandro Kirk has been dreadful to start the season and has done little to justify being much more than a time-share player when Jansen is healthy. | | Yoan Moncada was placed on the IL and will miss 3-6 months with a left adductor strain. Oscar Colas was recalled by the White Sox. | | Robert Stephenson will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Sunday. He should factor into the Angels high-leverage opportunities by next week, though he'll need Carlos Estevez to stumble to have a chance for saves. | | Brewers outfielder Garrett Mitchell should return around June 1. He's on the IL with a fractured left index finger. | | Monday standouts | | Logan Gilbert , Mariners @TOR: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Gilbert continues to tinker, and in the early going he's been leaning more heavily on a cutter while fading his four-seamer more than ever, and the early results are pretty encouraging, as hitters have struggled to do much with the cutter. His slider and splitter are both solid swing-and-miss pitches, so the cutter might be the pitch he needed to take away focus on his fastball. I don't think he's taken a huge step forward, necessarily, but this could be the best version of Gilbert we've seen thanks to incremental improvements. | | Aaron Nola, Phillies @STL: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Pitching in cold and wet conditions, Nola gutted out a quality start without his best stuff. He had just five whiffs on 93 pitches and his average fastball velocity was down 3.2 mph from last season, but I'm willing to chalk that up to the weather. Nola hasn't been great this season, but I can't say I'm too worried about him at this point. | | Bobby Miller, Dodgers @MIN: 4 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – With his first start, an 11-strikeout gem, it looked like Miller was taking the step many were hoping for, but it's been a step and a half back in two starts since. He has struck out 24% of batters over those two starts, and Wednesday's featured just a decent 13.7% swinging strike rate against a very whiff-prone Twins lineup. I'm not exactly sure why Miller isn't consistently getting the kind of strikeout numbers you would think he would, given the quality of his stuff, but it's a little concerning that this issue seems to be following him from 2023. I still have a lot of faith here, but we'd like to see it manifesting in good results more. | | Dylan Cease, Padres vs. CHC: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – There will probably be some point when Cease's command fails him and he wrecks your ratio for a week or two, but so far, he's been very good. And I expect him to remain very good moving forward, especially if he can sustain this little velocity bump he's enjoyed so far. | | Tanner Bibee, Guards vs. CHW: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – This is a disappointing performance, especially given the matchup, but I don't know how worried you should be about it. His velocity was down 1.3 mph on his four-seam fastball, a persistent theme in the early going so far, which is the biggest concern here. But otherwise, I think this one can mostly be chalked up to Bibee not being sharp today, because he was getting a ton of whiffs before this outing. But it's fair to say his margin for error might be a bit slimmer if he's sitting 93 than when he was sitting 95 last season. | | Hunter Greene, Reds vs. MIL: 6 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Greene remains a source of great frustration for Fantasy, because he's just so hit or miss – literally, in his case, because he either seems to get whiffs with his fastball or he gives up hard-contact in the air with the pitch. He gave up two more homers, and neither would have been a homer in more than half of the parks in MLB, according to BaseballSavant.com. The problem, of course, is Greene was at home, and his home is the homer-friendliest park in baseball, so that's going to be an issue. I'm not dropping Greene, but between his homer issues and middling command, I'm not sure he's making the leap we hoped. Which means I'm not sure how much better than Jared Jones we should actually expect him to be. | | Jordan Hicks, Giants vs. WAS: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – I don't want to hold Hicks' velocity being down 5 mph against him, because it's clearly a conscious decision to help facilitate his move from the bullpen to the rotation. | | Zack Littell , Rays @LAA: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Between the three walks and a bunch of pitches left in the middle of the strike zone, Littell was probably pretty lucky to get out of this one without an inflated ERA. He doesn't have the kind of stuff where he can get away with the command being as middling as it was Wednesday, but I also have faith the command will be a lot better most days, so I'm chalking this one up mostly as a fluke. Littell is a fine arm to round out a Fantasy rotation, in my eyes, if not necessarily a high-upside one. But I'm also not sure how many strikeouts we can expect from him – he's down to a very mediocre 19.7% rate so far – and while he should continue to generate a lot of uncomfortable swings and weak contact, it puts a lot of pressure on him continuing to avoid walks, something he's never really done before. I think there might be a sell-high window opening up here, especially with Hicks likely facing an innings limitation at some point. Though maybe wait until after he faces the Marlins in his next outing. | | Kutter Crawford, Red Sox vs. BAL: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – In what has been a recurring theme for the Red Sox, Crawford threw just 21% four-seamers in this outing. I think the secondary-heavy approach could lead to plenty of nights like tonight, when walks are a problem, but I think the strikeouts and overall results should be good enough to justify starting Crawford more often than not. | | Seth Lugo, Royals vs. HOU: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – Lugo is a fine pitcher to have around when things are going well, as they are now. And I'd definitely hang on to him for his upcoming start against the White Sox. But if you find someone more exciting after that, I'm also perfectly willing to drop Lugo, too. He's just one of those guys. | | Spencer Arrighetti, Astros @KC: 3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Making his first MLB start, Arrighetti did not do much to impress. He mostly went four-seamer/cutter/sweeper, with those three pitches accounting for 68 of his 79 pitches, and he didn't give up much hard contact, if you're looking for positives here. But he didn't look particularly impressive either, and now he gets the Braves for his next start. Which is to say, you definitely don't need to add Arrighetti, who might be out of the rotation for Justin Verlander after that outing. | | Tanner Scott, RP, Marlins – Scott got the Marlins out of an eighth-inning jam and ended up with the five-out save against the Yankees Wednesday night, but it wasn't exactly a clean outing, as he walked three and gave up a hit on his way to the save. Dating back to the start of spring, Scott has 16 walks in 11.1 innings of work, and with the Marlins winning just two of their first 12 games, I'm not viewing Scott as a must-roster player at this point. | | Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals – I was starting to notice a palpable air of concern around Pasquantino's rough start among Fantasy players, so it was nice to see him finally get on the board for his first homer of the season. It wasn't exactly crushed – 101.9 mph – and Pasquantino's overall quality of contact remains extremely mediocre so far this season. Coming off shoulder surgery, this could be more than just a slump, but I'm not ready to give up on a player with Pasquantino's combination of raw power and plate discipline so easily. | | Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers – I know we've completely given up on the idea that Yelich can be a difference maker anymore, but it's worth noting how dominant he has been in the early going. Yelich has never lost the ability to crush the baseball, but since his MVP-caliber days, he's lost the ability to drive it in the air consistently. Well, in the early going so far, he has a 10.7 degree average launch angle, the second-highest mark of his career. Which is to say that, while I'm not sure he can sustain this power production, it's not necessarily a fluke, either. Let's hope he can avoid the back issues that have been the biggest hindrance to his success in recent years. | | Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees – Reports of his demise may have been overstated. Stanton was just 3 for 24 with 13 strikeouts in the first six games of the season, but he's been dominant since, with three homers in his past five games, while going 8 for 19 with only three strikeouts. He still hits the ball as hard as anyone, and he might not be as washed up as you think. | | | | | | | | We Need To Talk | | The Masters | Watch a special episode from Augusta National Golf Club featuring Amanda Balionis, Dottie Pepper, Tracy Wolfson and Katrina Adams this Saturday at 12:30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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