10X More Profitable Than Physical Gold? (From Monument Traders Alliance)
Written by Thomas Hughes
The September NFP was so smoking hot that it blew the outlook for interest rates out of the water. The headline figure alone was enough to alter the outlook, signaling healthy, resilient labor market conditions, and the revisions sealed the deal. Revisions averaged 72,000 higher monthly in July and August, belying fears that a recession was near. The takeaway for investors is that the FOMC is unlikely to continue with aggressive interest rate cuts and may even pause due to labor market health. Their dual mandate is in balance with labor markets showing strength, inflation trending quickly toward 2%, and the risk of inflationary acceleration back on the table. Wage Growth Soars in September: Labor Market at an Inflection Point Not only was job creation strong, but wage growth was robust. The average hourly wage rose by $0.13 with revisions, up 0.4% monthly and 4.0% compared to last year. The data is trending higher, with YoY wage-level inflation back at 4.0%, sufficient to give the FOMC reason to pause. The not-adjusted as-reported data is more compelling, with monthly gains at 0.8% and 4.5% YoY, suggesting sustained consumer health through the holiday season. As reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, hiring intent is also strong. The 403,891 job openings announced in September are seasonally expected and show sustained labor market strength. However, only some of the news is good. The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report also shows the labor market at an inflection point where Senior Vice President Andrew Challenger says it could begin to stall or contract. The most telling data points are the surge in job cuts, hiring intent, and trends. The 72,821 job cuts announced in September are up 53% compared to September 2023, hiring intent is down compared to last year, and September is the first month 2024 figures surpassed 2023. The 2024 YTD total is only 0.8% above 2023, but it is trending in the wrong direction and could lead to labor market contraction. Regarding the GDP outlook, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool continues to track in the 2.75% range, well above the analyst consensus and the forecasts for the year. Overly Optimistic Market Still Expects Two More Cuts By December The outlook for FOMC interest rate cuts, as forecasted by the CME’s FedWatch Tool, has softened but continues to price at an aggressive pace. The market is pricing in 100% chance for 25 basis points in November and December and another 100 bps by the end of the following year. While cuts will likely continue, the pace will likely be slower than what is currently priced in. The next FOMC meeting is weeks away, with numerous data points still due, including a reading of PCE and the CPI. Oil has reemerged as a threat to inflation. The oil price is trading near the bottom of its long-term range but showing a clear bottom driven by geopolitical tensions. The market is well-supplied, but there is a significant risk of disruption in the Middle East, and price action in WTI is set to move higher, given the catalyst. The S&P 500 Stalls Near Record Highs The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY) responded favorably to the news, moving higher in early premarket trading, but could not hold the gains. Selling was equally tepid, leaving the market up daily but showing resistance at a critical level, just below the record highs. The takeaway is that market action remains mixed, with no clear indication of direction, and risk is skewed to the downside. As the VIX (CBOE: VIX) indicates, the risk of a major correction remains elevated, with the fear index trading well above the 2024 lows and indicated higher. 
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Written by Thomas Hughes
Insider buying in Matador Resources (NYSE: MTDR) and V2X, Inc. (NYSE: VVX) highlights their stocks' value and growth opportunity. The critical takeaways are that insiders aren’t and haven’t sold shares in years, the buying picked up in Q3 and it is broad-based, indicating a high conviction among executives. Matador Resources Insiders Buy After Record Quarter and Increased Guidance Matador Resources insiders have only bought their stock for years, Insidertrades.com tracks no sales, and activity ramped to a record high in Q3. Purchases were made by multiple directors, the CEO, CFO, COO, CAO, and an EVP, with the CEO and CAO each making more than one buy. Their activity topped $600,000, equal to roughly 1% of the market cap with shares near $52.50, and brings total holdings to over 6%. Their buying is amplified by institutional activity which is mixed, there is some selling and some buying, but net bullish quarterly for six consecutive quarters, bringing their total holdings in this independent energy company to over 90%. Among the reasons for the buying is operational growth and quality. The 2024 results include a return-to-growth with production and revenue exceeding guidance, and operational efficiencies related to acquisitional synergies and advancing technology in drilling and well production. Q2 highlights include record production and increased guidance not including a recent acquisition. The company is on track to close on its latest transaction in the current quarter, boosting production, proven reserves, and potential for unproven oil and natural gas reserves. The salient details for investors are that this company is profiting, margins are improving, and free cash flow is robust. Free cash flow in FQ2 2024 was up more than double the prior year, providing a free cash flow margin of nearly 20%. Cash and cash flow are used for acquisitions, allowing for capital returns while maintaining a fortress balance sheet. Although cash is down, the decrease is due to acquisitions and CAPEX that will improve production and operational quality and is offset by increased assets. Balance sheet highlights include increased current and total assets. Total assets are up 10%, liability is down, and equity is up. Equity is up about 17% YOY with long-term debt less than 0.6X, leaving the company in a strong position to continue its growth strategy. Analysts rate Matador Resources as a Moderate Buy and view it as a deep value. The stock is trading 15% below the lowest price target on record and more than 40% above the consensus, with the consensus up compared to 2023 and holding steady near the 2024 highs. 
V2X, Inc Insiders Buy: Stock on Track for New Highs as Business Booms Insidertrades.com data indicates that V2X, Inc. insiders have only bought their stock for more than four years, with purchases hitting a multi-year high in Q3. Purchases are broad-based, including a director, the CEO, CAO, CHR, and Treasurer, putting insider holding at just over 1%. The 1% is small but compounded by a high 95%, institutional interest and a spike in institutional activity in Q3. Institutional activity is mixed in 2024, with the Q2 balance a sell, offset by a multi-year high in purchases for Q3. Institutional activity is also noteworthy for its breadth. Fund managers, including Vanguard and BlackRock, hold significant amounts of stock but less than 10% between them. The company’s 2024 results are good. V2X is sustaining growth following the triple-digit gain in 2023 and accelerating sequentially. The guidance from Q2 suggests the strength will continue, up from the Q1 forecast and above consensus at the top and bottom lines, driven by demand for its mission-critical defense operations support services and communications technology. Analysts rate this stock as a Buy and see it trading near fair value at $53.50. 
In today's financial landscape, many investors are feeling disillusioned and disappointed with traditional investment options. So, Why Gold? Why Now?
Written by Ryan Hasson
The semiconductor sector, long a leader in market performance, has faced headwinds in recent months. After an impressive run last year and through much of 2024, the industry took a sharp hit in July as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut grew, and the now infamous Japan carry trade unwind played out. This led to investors rotating into more defensive areas of the market. The popular VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH), a benchmark for the sector, plunged from its all-time high of over $280, falling toward crucial support at $200 in just one month. This abrupt selloff ignited fears of deeper losses and prompted a shift into safer sectors like Utilities and Industrials. Yet fast forward two months, and the picture looks brighter for semiconductors. The SMH ETF has stabilized above critical rising moving averages and pared losses, now sitting just 13.6% below its peak. The ETF has formed a bullish technical setup, posting two consecutive higher lows and consolidating around the $250 level—close to a potential breakout zone. This turnaround raises an important question: could rotation back into the semiconductor sector be starting? To answer that, let’s look at the sector’s top holdings, which account for much of SMH's weight and drive the sector's performance. NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Broadcom together comprise nearly 43% of the ETF’s total weighting. Let's examine these key players' recent momentum and outlook to better assess whether the semiconductor sector is again positioned for upside. NVIDIA Powers AI Revolution, Poised for Strong Growth NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), the ETF’s largest holding, has been a standout performer and is currently consolidating after a strong rebound from its August lows. From a technical perspective, the stock is in a bullish pattern and hovers near a critical breakout level above $125. Analysts remain overwhelmingly positive on NVIDIA, with a consensus price target suggesting a 16% upside from current levels. The stock is rated as a Moderate Buy by analysts, with 39 out of 43 analysts recommending it as a Buy. Notably, Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann holds a Street-high price target of $200, representing a 71% upside. Mosesmann is particularly bullish on NVIDIA's software, which he believes will significantly bolster the company’s sales mix and valuation over the next decade. NVIDIA’s dominance in powering artificial intelligence (AI) models like ChatGPT is well-known. Still, upcoming products like the highly anticipated Blackwell AI chip are generating massive demand, according to CEO Jensen Huang. TSM Set to Benefit From Rising Chip Demand and AI Growth Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM), the second-largest holding in SMH, is in a similar position to NVIDIA, consolidating in an uptrend and close to a potential breakout. The stock popped over 2% recently as momentum continues to shift upward, with analysts forecasting an 11.4% upside from current levels. TSM, as the primary chip manufacturer for NVIDIA, stands to benefit from the overwhelming demand for NVIDIA’s Blackwell chip. Additionally, the recent fundraising by OpenAI to boost its computing capacity will likely translate into more business for TSM, as OpenAI is expected to purchase chips from NVIDIA, and TSM will handle production. Broadcom Joins Peers in Uptrend, Poised for Further Gains Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), SMH’s third-largest holding, mirrors the bullish trends seen in NVDA and TSM. The stock is showing signs of consolidation within a new uptrend, and analysts are forecasting a 10% upside. Broadcom remains well-positioned as a critical player in the semiconductor supply chain, with significant exposure to both cloud computing and AI growth themes. Like its peers, Broadcom enjoys strong analyst support, with a firm Buy rating and continued optimism around its future prospects. Is the Rotation Back On? The semiconductor sector appears to be on the verge of a potential comeback, with the SMH ETF stabilizing and key players like NVIDIA, TSM, and Broadcom positioned for further upside. Bullish technical setups and strong analyst sentiment for these stocks suggest that the sector could be ready to regain its leadership position in the market. You can finally KAMALA-PROOF your retirement funds.
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