| | | | Thursday, April 17, 2025 | | Spencer Strider made his return to the mound for the Braves Wednesday, a little over a year after his 2024 season came to an end due to an elbow injury that required surgery. But did he look like Spencer Strider still? | | Yes and no. | | Especially early in the start, Strider absolutely looked like himself. He pumped his first pitch of the game right past Bo Bichette at 97 mph for a swinging strike, and he set him down with a wicked slider for a strikeout two pitches later. Vladimir Guerrero fought a bit more, but he ultimately went down flailing at a slider after Strider blew a 97 mph fastball past him earlier in the at-bat. | | That was the best he would look all day. That's not to say Strider looked bad – he allowed just two runs over five innings of work, after all – but there was clearly an adrenaline spike in the first inning that didn't last, which you can see in his average fastball velocity by inning: | 1st: 96.9
2nd: 95.4
3rd: 94.7
4th: 95.3
5th: 94.9
6th: 94.8 | | In that first inning, he looked like his pre-injury self, averaging 96.9 mph with his four-seamer (he was at 97.2 mph in 2023) and had five swinging strikes on 18 pitches. From that point on, he averaged 95.1 and had eight swinging strikes on 79 pitches. He wasn't bad after the first inning – 95.1 mph will play with Strider's movement profile and low arm angle, and a 15% swinging strike rate overall is plenty good – but he wasn't dominant. | | | | It is worth noting that the Braves clearly left him out there too long. He entered the sixth inning having already thrown 85 pitches when he had only maxed out at 90 in his rehab assignment. It wasn't like Strider was obviously running out of gas, but his velocity had been flagging for several innings, and with the No. 2 spot in the lineup up to open the inning, it seemed like the Braves were inviting trouble, and Guerrero welcomed it with his first homer of the season; they left Strider in for the next batter too for some reason, and he walked Anthony Santander on five pitches to end his day. | | All in all, for his first start back from major elbow surgery, it's hard to view this as anything but a resounding success for Strider. He wasn't quite as dominant as he was before the injury, but it's a pretty good first step. He couldn't sustain his velocity throughout the outing, something that was also an issue during his rehab assignment, but Strider was still plenty effective sitting nearly 2 mph down from where he was in 2023. | | The question moving forward is whether he can be even better than this moving forward. I certainly don't think this is the best we're going to see from Strider, but I'm also not convinced we should just assume he'll be his pre-injury self moving forward, either. This is a second major elbow injury for Strider, and while his stuff was clearly still good, it wasn't quite at the level it was before the injury. The fact that the Braves were willing to let him approach 100 pitches in his very first start does suggest that Strider won't be limited much moving forward, which definitely increases the margin for error if there's little risk of the Braves pulling him when he's cruising at 80 pitches. | | All in all, I think Strider looks like someone you're going to have in your lineup as long as he remains healthy. And I think he'll obviously be an impactful arm, with both big per-start upside and plenty of season-long upside – though I do not expect him to be quite as dominant as a strikeout pitcher as he was in 2023. There's no shame in that – being a top-15 starting pitcher less than 13 months after major arm surgery is pretty impressive! | | And he'll likely continue to add velocity as he goes on. We may see a dip in the next few starts as the first-start adrenaline wears off, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some bumps in the road along the way, as we're seeing with Jacob deGrom, who is also dealing with diminished velocity in his own return from a second major elbow surgery. But Strider should be an impact arm as long as he stays healthy, and that was well worth the wait. | | Here's what else you need to know from Wednesday's action around MLB: | | | | Thursday's top waiver-wire targets | | | | Drake Baldwin, C, Braves (17%) – The Braves are still finding ways to keep Baldwin's bat in the lineup despite a disappointing start to his MLB career, and it paid off Wednesday as he hit his first MLB home run while serving as the team's DH. On Tuesday, the Braves had Baldwin in at catcher, while Sean Murphy served as the DH, and we should expect to continue to see that pairing as long as Ozuna's hip injury lingers. That might not be past this weekend, but luckily, the catcher position is shallow enough that even Baldwin playing 40% of the games plus a handful of games at DH could still have plenty of value – especially if he ever hits close to his very impressive .375 expected wOBA. Even with Murphy back, there's plenty of upside here with Baldwin. | | Edgar Quero, C, White Sox (5%) – My rule has always been this: If you are a catcher with even moderately interesting skills, I'm going to be interested in adding you for Fantasy in any two-catcher league, because the crop of No. 2 catchers rarely anything more than moderately interesting anyway. I have some leagues where I won't be looking to add Quero – one where I have Shea Langeliers and Adley Rutschman especially makes it easy to ignore Quero – but in pretty much any league, someone is going to have space for a 22-year-old top prospect who hit .280/.366/.463 in the minors last season. Quero doesn't have any standout tools as a hitter, but he does a lot of things well enough, especially as a right-handed hitter. I think Baldwin is the more talented hitter, but Quero's path to immediate playing time is a lot more clear on the White Sox, so I'd say it's close to a coin flip which you should prioritize. I'll put Baldwin ahead, but I'm excited to see what Quero can do with some runway. | | David Festa, SP, Twins (19%) – The early hook is frustrating, though fairly typical for Twins pitchers. It limits the upside here if Festa is going to be pulled after just 76 pitches, and if that's enough to keep him off your roster, I get it. But Festa is a legitimately talented pitcher, with a good-enough fastball and genuinely strong slider and changeup. There might be more frustration along the way with the Twins' usage of him, but in Roto leagues especially, I think you'll get pretty solid ratios and good strikeout rates from him, at the very least. Especially next week, when he's slated to take on the White Sox. | | Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Brewers (52%) – Hoskins has looked pretty lost through most of the first three weeks of the season, but we're still at the point of the season where a few good games can totally change how a player looks. Entering play Monday, Hoskins had just a .520 OPS; after back-to-back games with a homer Tuesday and Wednesday, he's all the way up to a .753 mark. That's hardly must-start production from a first baseman, but it's a sign that Hoskins may still have something left in the tank – something we thought might be the case after a big spring. If you missed out on the Tyler Soderstrom/Spencer Torkelson/Ben Rice breakouts at the position, Hoskins still has some upside. | | Connor Norby, 3B, Marlins (40%) – It looks like Norby could be back from the IL Thursday, as they are sending erstwhile starter Graham Pauley down to Triple-A. And he's looking to pick up where he left off last season, when he was a surprisingly useful Fantasy option after a trade to the Marlins, hitting .247/.315/.445 with seven homers and three steals in 36 games. The underlying data doesn't quite back it up, but Norby does have an .872 OPS in his Triple-A career and could be able to outperform his underlying metrics with a pull-heavy approach. At the very least, I'm excited to see Norby try and make up for lost time after the injury. | | | | Wednesday's standouts | | Aaron Nola,Phillies vs. SF: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 8 K – If this isn't your first time playing Fantasy Baseball, then you probably have some idea of how this works. Nola is somehow, simultaneously a high-floor, boring veteran pitcher, and a weirdly volatile one. The one thing he usually doesn't struggle with is control, which makes his eight walks over the past two starts especially surprising. I'm not too worried about it, though it's certainly not a great sign in general that his average fastball velocity continues to sit 1-2 mph behind where it was last season. I expect him to figure it out, but he hasn't been great lately. | | Robbie Ray, Giants @PHI: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 8 K – Speaking of control issues, Ray has now walked 14 in his past three starts. Control was an issue for him last season, too, but I chalked that up to rust coming back from Tommy John surgery mid-season. But he's been healthy this season going back to the spring and he just hasn't looked very in command – he threw just 42% of his pitches in the zone today, and the Phillies just generally didn't swing at much of what he offered, a bad combo for a pitcher like Ray. He still had 13 whiffs on 93 pitches, so the stuff is still working, but he needs to tighten things up. I expect he will, but this certainly hasn't been what we hoped for when Ray's price went shooting up at the end of draft season. | | Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays vs. ATL: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – Bassitt benefited a bit from a wide strike zone in this one, but he's also just executing at an extremely high level. I don't think anything like his current level of success is sustainable, so if someone wants to blow you away with an offer for him, don't be hesitant to trade him. But Bassitt was also a must-start pitcher from 2021 through 2023, and I don't see much reason he can't continue to be useful even when the regression monster inevitably strikes. | | Nick Pivetta, Padres vs. CHC: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – We're getting a nice proof of concept for what Pivetta can do with a home ballpark that actually helps him. He continues to miss a lot of bats, and he isn't getting buried by homers right now like he so often has in the past. I would still take the over on a 3.50 ERA, but I do think for the first time in his career, expecting a sub-4.00 ERA from Pivetta may not end with your heart broken. | | Kris Bubic, Royals @NYY: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – Bubic has been a bit shakier over the past couple of starts, but the strikeouts are still there, and they came along with a 15% whiff rate in this one. The Yankees are a tough matchup for lefties, and he had to go away from his changeup more than we're used to seeing. If this is what the "bad" starts look like from Bubic, you're gonna be plenty happy to have him on your team. | | Max Meyer , Marlins vs. ARI: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Meyer's teammates are rarely going to help him out much, so whatever value he has is going to have to come from what he can do on the mound by himself. We'll take a quality start against a tough matchup, knowing that Meyer's slider looks like an absolute world-beater this season thanks to his expanded arsenal and increased fastball velocity – he sat at 95.7 mph in this one, up 1.5 mph from last season. That pitch has gone from a liability to good enough, and it's allowing the slider to eat – he had 14 swinging strikes with the slider Wednesday, a massive number. He might just be good. | | Clarke Schmidt, Yankees vs. KC: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – Some rust coming off shoulder and back issues is to be expected, but Schmidt's curveball looks like it needs some work – he was getting significantly less two-plan movement with the pitch in this one than last season. That was his best swing-and-miss pitch last season, so any dropoff there could hurt his ability to generate strikeouts. It's something to watch with Schmidt, who didn't do enough to be worth adding in most leagues where he isn't already rostered here. | | Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks @MIA: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Pfaadt's off to a solid start, with a 3.04 ERA through four starts … and I don't buy it. He has just 18 strikeouts in his 23.2 innings of work, and his 5.01 FIP suggests he's been incredibly lucky so far. I'm not dropping Pfaadt, certainly, but I don't think he's going to be a difference-maker for you. | | Gavin Williams, Guardians @BAL: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – Williams' stuff remains pretty good, but his command is a problem, and it's exacerbated by his limited repertoire. Williams has shelved the cutter he debuted last season, and he has barely thrown his changeup – he threw two of them Wednesday, the first he has thrown all season. There's too much talent here to give up on Williams, so I'm keeping him stashed on my bench if I can. But there's no question it's been a disappointing start. | | Nick Martinez, Reds vs. SEA: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – A big part of what made Martinez so interesting last season was the jump he made as a control pitcher, and that has completely disappeared so far. His walk rate is up to 7.5%, a decent mark in a vacuum, but more than double last season's. Without big strikeout upside, Martinez needs to avoid free passes to be a viable Fantasy option, and right now he just isn't doing enough. I'll hang on to him for next week's two-start tilt, but if he doesn't impress, it'll be easy enough to drop Martinez. | | Ronel Blanco, Astros @STL: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 IK – Basically, the case for Blanco coming off last season was that he might have some special skill at limiting runs that his ERA estimators weren't picking up on. I'm always skeptical of that kind of special pleading, but with Blanco sporting worse ERA estimators and significantly worse actual results so far, it seems pretty easy to discard him to the streaming pile. | | Matthew Boyd, Cubs @SD: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – The 2.01 ERA through four starts isn't real, but you don't need me to tell you that. I don't really buy the 3.29 FIP either, though it is in line with what he managed last season in a limited sample size. The problem is, it hinges on an outlier's ability to prevent home runs, because his xFIP (which normalizes home runs allowed to a league-average context) is 4.38, suggesting he's had a lot of good luck on his side. I lean more toward the pessimistic side of things, given Boyd's career-long struggles keeping the ball in the yard before last season. | | Mitchell Parker, Nationals @PIT: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Parker's 1.85 ERA sure is pretty, and let's not forget that he had a really solid run in the first half of last season, putting up a 3.44 ERA over his first 16 starts. But I was skeptical that would sustain last season, and I'm even more skeptical now, with his strikeout rate dropping from an already pretty mediocre 19.9% last season to a downright abysmal 15.8% so far. Parker feels pretty easy to ignore moving forward. | | News and notes | | Brenton Doyle has now missed six straight with left quad soreness. | | Seiya Suzuki returned to the lineup after missing three games with right wrist soreness. | | Alex Bregman went on the paternity list, which means he'll miss between one and three days. | | Zach Neto could be activated from the IL as soon as Thursday. He's coming off shoulder surgery after a breakout season in 2024, and I wouldn't be surprised if he got off to a slow start due to the injury. But he's worth rostering at least in all category leagues to see if he can repeat last season's 23 homers and 30 steals. | | Tyler O'Neill was scratched from the lineup due to neck discomfort. | | Kyle Schwarber got a start in the outfield Wednesday, his first of the season. Only needs four more appearances on CBS. | | Zach Eflin played catch Wednesday. He's on the IL with a mild lat strain. | | Masyn Winn expects to be activated when first eligible Tuesday. | | Ivan Herrera hopes to start running this weekend. He's probably still 2-3 weeks away, but this is a good sign as he works his way back from a knee injury. | | Eury Perez is about a month away from beginning a rehab assignment. He'll likely use most of the 30 days available on his rehab assignment, but that still means he could be back sometime in June. Perez is coming back from Tommy John surgery, but he's still just 22 years old and has top-10 SP upside if he's right. That kind of upside is probably more of a 2026 goal, but he's that talented. | | Luis Gil's throwing progression has been pushed back about 10 days. He was scheduled to play catch this week but that won't happen. He's out until June at the earliest. | | The Twins acquired Jonah Bride from the Marlins in exchange for cash considerations. They need more bodies after suffering more injuries – Matt Wallner is going on the IL with a left hamstring strain, while Willi Castro left Wednesday with tightness in his right oblique. | | The White Sox designated Mike Clevinger for assignment. | | The Dodgers optioned Landon Knack back to Triple-A. | | DJ Herz underwent Tommy John surgery on Wednesday and likely won't return until the second half of next season. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | Golazo Network | The UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals continue tomorrow with a decisive second leg that will send two clubs to the Semifinals. Coverage starts at 2 PM ET, streaming exclusively on Paramount+!
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