Is This the End of the Bull Market?

Is This the End of the Bull Market?

No matter how many times I’ve seen my crypto positions get temporarily demolished by market volatility, it always “feels” like this time is different. And there could be no way for them to recover.

This is exactly what I went through in 2016-2017 after I recommended bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Monero (XMR), and many other altcoins.

When I first recommended bitcoin in April 2016, it was trading around $400.

Shortly after that, one of bitcoin’s core developers quit. He called bitcoin a failure and sold his entire stake.

Bitcoin dropped into the $300 range.

It sure “felt” like the end to me. Fortunately, I didn't let my “feelings” run my investment decision making. Instead, I relied on my research. And my research told me bitcoin was wildly undervalued.

So I continued pounding the table… Telling people to buy bitcoin… And predicting it’d be worth thousands of dollars.

People thought I was mad, delusional, or just plain dumb. I got hate mail by the virtual truckload.

It’s not that I didn’t care about the hate mail. It’s that I cared more about helping as many people as possible see what I saw: An unbelievable opportunity to help transform people’s financial lives.

That’s what drove me through the volatility and the ridicule.

I knew I was right. And that anyone who listened to me would have the chance to completely remake their financial life for the better.

For those who stayed in bitcoin, they were soon rewarded. In five months, bitcoin more than doubled – jumping from $300 to over $765.

You can guess what happened next… Bitcoin dropped like a stone. By late summer 2016, it had fallen to about $550.

Like today, the headlines were full of negative news. I was getting savaged by internet commenters, readers, and some of my old Wall Street colleagues.

Again, I got a stream of rough emails. Yet, I maintained faith in my research.

Like today, I told anyone who’d listen that bitcoin is a unique and incredibly undervalued asset. And as more people adopted bitcoin, it’d skyrocket in value.

Only a small group of subscribers were on board with me. They trusted my research. And of course, their faith was rewarded.

Seven months after the bitcoin halving in July 2016, it ran to about $1,100… And it was well on its way to $20,000 within less than a year.

But as you can see below, it wasn’t an easy ride to the top. We had to go through eight drops of 30% or more to get there.

But that was nothing compared to the ride I went through with Ethereum and Monero.

Ethereum had 11 drawdowns of over 30% and Monero had six drawdowns of over 50% after I recommended them in 2016.

As of this writing, we’re up 27,367% on Ethereum… And we saw peak gains of 6,018% on Monero.

Check out what my subscribers and I had to live through to make those gains…

Friends, here’s why these charts are relevant today…

Bitcoin is down about 20% since hitting its all-time high of nearly $110,000 in January. That’s just a slap on the wrist compared to the massive pullbacks my readers saw in 2016 and 2017. Today, those pullbacks now look like blips on a radar screen.

Take a look at the chart below… You can’t even see all the volatility we lived through in 2017.

Just like I told my readers back then, when it comes to bitcoin, there’s only one question you need to ask yourself before deciding whether to sell or stay long…

Is this the end of the bull market?

In my view, the answer is unequivocally “no.” I expect bitcoin will reach new highs before the end of this year.

If that’s the case – and my research suggests it is – when you look back in a few months from now, today’s prices will look like basement bargains.

Why Not Sell Now and Buy Back Later?

A question I often get from readers during these sell-offs is: “Teeka, if you believe bitcoin could go lower, why not sell now and buy back later when prices are cheaper?”

There are two reasons why I don’t do that.

One, I don’t have a crystal ball. That means there is no guarantee we go lower.

And two, this market is VERY headline driven. That means it is very sensitive to news – especially news coming out of the White House.

Just as everything looks grim and dark right now, we’re just one positive news announcement away from the White House sending the whole stock and crypto markets roaring higher.

In an environment like that, the bigger risk is being out of the market than in it.

Again, it bears repeating: The crypto bull market AND the stock bull market are both intact.

It might not feel that way right now… Just like it didn’t feel that way during the regional banking crisis in March 2023 when the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin dropped as much as 9.3%, 10%, and 22%, respectively.

Like March 2023, I believe by the end of the year, we’ll see the current shakeout was a time to buy – not a time to sell.

What’s Next for Bitcoin and Crypto?

A quick look at the bitcoin charts points to strong support in the $78,000-82,000 level.

That’s where I intend to put more of my capital to work.

As I wrote last year (here and here), I’m a proponent of having a long-term stack of bitcoin and a short-term trading stack of bitcoin.

Had you followed my recommendations in those articles, you would have made as much as 102% in as little as 168 days.

So if bitcoin gets to $78,000-82,000, that’s a place you can put opportunistic capital to work. If you’re a short-term trader, you can take profits on the next run back up to $100,000 and lock in a quick 25% gain.

If you’re looking to add to your long-term stack, be patient and see if you can get it between $78,000-82,000.

As I showed you in the first chart above, bitcoin saw drops of 30% or more eight times in 2017. But that didn't stop it from ending the year up almost 2,000%. That is 20x your money in a year.

I want you to remember that we’ve seen this exact movie before in early 2017…

That’s when President Trump threatened tariffs against allies and adversaries alike. And just like 2017, the same thing is rattling the markets.

Back in 2017, the S&P 500 was mired in a nine-months-long sideways action before breaking out in September and ending the year up 20%.

And the crypto market that had gotten savaged in Q1 of 2017 exploded in value by the end of that year. It rose from an aggregate value of as low as $16 billion to as high as $762 billion.

That explosion in value led to thousands of my subscribers changing their financial life forever, including peak gains of as much as 4,551% in bitcoin, 15,678% in Ethereum, 152,362% in Neo, and 5,444% in Monero.

Remember, nothing in life is free. Volatility is the entry price you pay for the opportunity to radically change your financial life for the better without putting your current lifestyle at risk.

And the way we do that is by investing small amounts of money in a basket of crypto assets that have the ability to appreciate thousands of percent in value.

Getting mad at that volatility is like getting mad at water because it’s wet. It’s part of the game.

The way you tame that volatility is through small, uniform position sizes – $200-400 per idea if you’re a small investor, and $500-1,000 per idea if you’re a bigger investor.

If you can be rational in your position sizing, and make peace with the volatility, you will put yourself in the position to make life-changing gains from this asset class.

In closing, if the volatility is still driving you nuts, just turn off your screen. Go for a walk or spend time with your family. When you come back later this year, prices will be significantly higher.

Let the Game Come to You!

Big T

P.S. I know many of you have questions about the current bout of volatility. Please feel free to reply to this email and send them to me. I really appreciate it.