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Good Morning Voornaam,

After the pandemic hammered the tourism industry, it's been a long and incredibly painful wait for green shoots in the sector. They are there now, confirmed by commentary from local companies (like City Lodge Hotels) and global businesses like Visa that are directly exposed to consumer spending in this sector.

Director dealings vary greatly in excitement. Sometimes, they are barely more than lunch money for some of our business leaders, which doesn't give much of a signal. In other cases, they are worth paying attention to. I noticed yesterday that an entity related to the CEO of Tsogo Sun Hotels (now trading as Southern Sun) bought shares worth around R330k in the company. This isn't a gigantic amount for a CEO but isn't small either.

More importantly, this is yet another signal for me that the tourism sector is finally recovering.

The Tsogo Sun Hotels share price is flat this year and up 26% over the past 12 months, having recovered to February 2020 levels. The question facing investors is whether pent-up demand for travel will take the company to new heights, especially as inflation can be helpful for businesses with high levels of operating leverage (fixed costs).

When the CEO is buying shares, it's a good sign.

Other important updates include a trading statement by Trellidor (with the severe impact of the Labour Court ruling) and an acquisition by Huge Group. For all the important news on the JSE yesterday, read Ghost Bites.

Moving on, Ghost Grad Jordan Theron used the release of Mr Price's integrated annual report last week as a good excuse to give us an overview of some of the more interesting aspects of the group. These range from the long-term revenue growth rate through to the movements Mr Price is making along the LSM curve by acquiring premium-focused retailers. Here's another fun fact: Mr Price's online traffic is second only to Takealot when it comes to retailers. To learn more about Mr Price, read this great article by Jordan.

If you missed Unlock the Stock with Tharisa plc last week, you'll be pleased to know that the YouTube recording is now available. This mining group is a co-producer of PGMs and chrome concentrates, giving it interesting underlying exposures. To learn more about the business, make time to watch the management presentation and subsequent Q&A session at this link.

When it comes to currencies and wider market news, I'm afraid that the rand has been caught in the whirlwind of incredible dollar strength. As the team from TreasuryONE helps us understand, the market has run to the dollar as a safe haven asset at a time when 35% of people in the US believe that the country is already in a recession, with over 70% believing it will be in a recession by the end of 2022. The R17 level to the dollar is in sight, with FOMC minutes from the previous minute being absorbed by the market today. A rate hike of 75bps by the Fed is being priced in for later in July and the minutes will be assessed against this expectation.

Of course, the not-very-safe haven gold lost ground again, as it doesn't offer any yield. I continue to question why I ever wen t down that route of buying gold miners. It's become a bad joke for me now. In positive news, oil fell below $100 for the first time since April as fears of recession overshadowed the supply constraints.

I would like to remind you of the upcoming webinar with Andre Cilliers, Currency Strategist at TreasuryOne. The topic is "Recession, depression and the insane petrol price: what does this mean for the rand?" so you can expect it to be juicy. Attendance next Thursday at 9am is absolutely free and you need to sign up at this link.

Don't miss this learning opportunity!

We are about to release a new episode of Magic Ma rkets, so be sure that you don't fall behind. If you haven't found the time yet for Episode 82, you're missing out. Together with Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors, we discussed risk management techniques used by traders. Three of the traders in the Herenya community contributed their thoughts to the discussion. It's a great show and you can enjoy it here.

There's lots for you to sink your teeth into today - enjoy!

Ghost Bites Vol 43 (22)

Among the Bites, there's an important earnings update from Trellidor, a deal by Huge Group and interesting director dealings at Tsogo Sun Hotels.

Mr Price: worthy of your attention?

With the release of Mr Price's integrated annual return, Ghost Grad Jordan Theron took the opportunity to put a red cap on and assess this retail group.

Unlock the Stock: Tharisa plc

Tharisa plc's management team joined Unlock the Stock to give a presentation of the business and answer questions from investors.

Securing portfolio stability during anxious times

While many investors bias their decisions towards higher returns and a search for alpha, diversification and the inclusion of lower risk options remain an important part of the mix.

Magic Markets Ep82: Stories from Traders

In this hard-hitting show with Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya, we enjoyed messages from traders in their community about how they manage risk. These are real traders sharing real-world experiences and strategies - not to be missed!

Listen Now

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