First Thing: Israel launches Rafah offensive as UN warns of ‘a human catastrophe’

The US paused shipment of 3,500 bombs over fears they would fuel killing in Rafah, it has emerged. Plus, Ukraine says it foiled Zelenskiyassassination plot

Good morning.

Israel has launched a major military offensive in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, where 1.4 million Palestinian civilians are sheltering – seizing control of a key border crossing and cutting off most aid into the territory a day before indirect talks on a ceasefire deal are due to restart.

“This is the beginning of our mission to take out the last four Hamas brigades in Rafah. You should be in no doubt about that whatsoever,” an Israeli spokesperson said. On Monday, the Israel Defense Forces called on 100,000 people in eastern Rafah to evacuate.

The UN secretary general’s office warned: “Make no mistake – a full-scale assault on Rafah would be a human catastrophe. Countless more civilian casualties. Countless more families forced to flee yet again – with nowhere safe to go. Because there is no safe place in Gaza.”

Israel’s onslaught on Gaza has killed almost 35,000 people – mostly civilians – and displaced about 80% of the 2.3 million population. Northern Gaza is experiencing “full-blown famine”, according to the UN World Food Programme.

The offensive comes as it emerged Joe Biden’s administration paused a US shipment of bombs to Israel last week amid fears they would be dropped on Rafah.

What is the international community saying about an Israeli offensive in Rafah? The UN urged a ceasefire “to stop the unbearable suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and of the hostages and their families”. The UK said a Rafah offensive would break international law. Qatar called for “urgent international action to prevent the city from being invaded and a crime of genocide being committed”.

What are the details of the paused US weapons shipment? The US withheld about 3,500 bombs owing to concerns that they would fuel killing in Rafah. Reuters quoted an anonymous US official saying they were especially concerned about “the 2,000lb bombs and the impact they could have in dense urban settings”.

How might Biden respond to Israel crossing his “red line” over invading Rafah? Biden has said a full-scale Israeli attack on Rafah is his “red line”. Now is the moment of truth. Israel looks likely to force Biden to choose between a historic rift with Israel or humiliating acquiescence to potential war crimes. We are liveblogging developments here.

Zelenskiy assassination plot foiled by security service, Ukraine says

Ukraine says it has foiled a Russian plot to assassinate the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and other senior officials, the SBU security service said.

The SBU said a network of agents recruited by Vladimir Putin’s domestic spy agency, the FSB, had been instructed to find someone close to the presidential guard. The person would take Zelenskiy prisoner and kill him, the SBU said.

The agency said three FSB intelligence officers were behind the operation. It named them as Maxim Mishustin, Dmytro Perlin and Aleksii Kornev, from the ninth department of the FSB’s fifth service. Perlin handled a network of Ukrainian “moles”, recruited before Russia’s full-scale invasion.

What are the details of the assassination plot? One Ukrainian mole in March 2022 was instructed to find someone working in Zelenskiy’s immediate entourage who might kidnap and kill him.

What’s the latest in the conflict? Russia hit critical energy infrastructure in the Stryi district and a power generation facility in Chervonohrad district with missiles in western Ukraine on Wednesday, Lviv’s governor said. We are liveblogging here.

Stormy Daniels testifies in Trump hush-money trial

Donald Trump’s criminal trial entered a new stage on Tuesday with testimony from Stormy Daniels, the adult film star at the center of a hush-money scandal. She told jurors that they had a sexual liaison in 2006 that left her nervous and ashamed. He denies it.

Prosecutors allege that in 2015, Trump, his then lawyer Michael Cohen and tabloid mogul David Pecker plotted to bury stories that could thwart his Republican presidential bid. Cohen allegedly shuttled a $130,000 hush-money payment to Daniels less than two weeks before the 2016 presidential election, to keep her from going public about her claimed sexual liaison with Trump.

Judge’s warning to Trump: Daniels’s testimony came one day after Judge Juan Merchan warned Trump he could face jail if he kept violating a gag order.

In other news …

Vladimir Putin was sworn into his fifth term as Russia’s leader on Tuesday, in a ceremony boycotted by the US and many European envoys.

The former Theranos chief executive Elizabeth Holmes has had her federal prison sentence shortened again, with new records showing her release scheduled for 16 August 2032, four months earlier than before.

The North Korean propaganda chief Kim Ki-nam has died aged 94. He served three generations of Pyongyang leaders.

The rapper Macklemore released a pro-Palestine track. The song, Hind’s Hall, praises student demonstrations.

Stat of the day: Renewable energy made 30% of world’s electricity supply 2023, up from 19% in 2000

Renewable energy accounted for more than 30% of the world’s electricity for the first time last year following a rapid rise in wind and solar power, according to a report by climate thinktank Ember. Renewables have grown from 19% of electricity in 2000.

Don’t miss this: César Aira’s unreal magic – how the eccentric author took over Latin American literature

Cesar Aira, the Argentinian writer and translator, has published more than 100 novels, gives his work away, and his surrealist books have a massive cult following. Now, he’s tipped for the Nobel prize. Check out this long read on what makes his writing so magical.

Climate check: World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target

In a Guardian survey, 77% of the world’s leading climate scientists – all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – foresee at least 2.5C (4.5F) of global heating above preindustrial levels. Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit will be met.

Last Thing: Why clubbers are raving about Germany’s cross-country Techno Train

With DJs, bouncers and bars, the Nuremberg train offers a complete clubbing experience for about 700 ravers as the train shoots to Würzburg and back. Passengers are treated to about 25 DJs and views of the Bavarian countryside. “The music is gospel-tinged and euphoric,” writes Jamie Fullerton.

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