| | | | Friday, August 2, 2024 | | Yesterday, I wrote that Coby Mayo "has to be close to getting the call … right?" | | Right. | | According to multiple reports Thursday, the Orioles are indeed calling up their top remaining prospect from Triple-A to join the big-league squad, and it should be for good. Mayo is likely a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball at this point – he was Scott White's No. 2 remaining prospect in the minors when he did his mid-season update a few weeks back – and he clearly didn't have much left to prove in the minors. In 138 games at Triple-A across the past two seasons, Mayo was hitting .283/.380/552 with 32 homers, and he's been even better than that so far this season, putting together a 40-homer pace in his first 76 games of the season. | | Of course, whether Mayo actually is up for good will come down to how good he is. You only need to look over to the keystone in Baltimore to see how that is no sure thing, as Jackson Holliday, a better prospect than Mayo, was sent down after just 36 plate appearances as it became clear he was overmatched. Mayo may suffer a similar fate, and he's got a couple of things working against him in that regard. Because, while he doesn't have awful plate discipline, a 24.5% strikeout rate certainly isn't great. | | And it's worth noting that he's putting up the numbers he has in the International League, where pretty much everyone is hitting; add in that he's a right-handed hitter who figures to derive most of his value from power and he's going to play half his games in arguably the toughest park for right-handed power in baseball, and it wouldn't be surprising if Mayo struggled. | | But you've still gotta view him as a must-add player basically everywhere he is available. It may not work out, the way it didn't work out for Holliday or, until recently, Jackson Chourio (or, seemingly, James Wood ). The leap to the majors seems to be getting tougher every year, and it makes top prospect call ups much less of a sure thing than they used to be. But when you compare Mayo to the top players available on waivers in your typical league, it becomes a no-brainer that he's worth adding right now. In one 12-team points league I'm in, the top projected third basemen available for the rest of the season right now are Ernie Clement, Jose Iglesias, and Whit Merrifield; yeah, pass the Mayo. | | That's the biggest news from Thursday's weird, condensed MLB schedule, and without many games to talk about, the bulk of today's newsletter is going to be dedicated to taking a longer view, both to the rest of the season, and even to 2025. I've got eight players with big questions hanging over them as we head into the final two months of the season, plus thoughts on the biggest performances and news from Thursday besides Mayo's promotion: | | | | Biggest questions for the stretch run | | | | Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets – Can he take the leap? | | Alvarez has done some things well this season. He has cut his strikeout rate and emerged as a leader for the Mets, providing solid defense behind the plate when that was, at one point, a question. But he just hasn't been much more than solid as a hitter, and if you look at the underlying numbers, he looks even worse – his .282 expected wOBA would be just 22nd among catchers if he qualified. The power has been especially disappointing, and the question for Alvarez's future is whether he can find a way to tap into what was supposed to be his greatest strength without losing his improved contact rates. Alvarez is still quite young, but if we're going to buy into a breakout narrative for 2025, he'll have to show us more down the stretch. | | Cody Bellinger, OF, Cubs – Can he rediscover 2023? | | Bellinger's real-life value is one of the most interesting questions in the league right now, because the Cubs may have traded him at the deadline if he hadn't injured his finger, and he has a player option for 2025 that at this point he seems likely to exercise. He has maintained his excellent contact rates from last year, but his quality of contact – which was already pretty mediocre – has completely collapsed. Bellinger is still finding ways to outperform his underlying metrics, but that has still led to just a .328 wOBA, because his xwOBA is down to .290. Bellinger still has the kind of well-rounded skill set that could make him a very valuable Fantasy option, but it's hard to see a path to upside here if he doesn't finish strong. | | Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles – Can he live up to the hype? | | Holliday flopped hard in his first taste of the majors, but when he went back down to Triple-A, he continued to show the skills that made him the top prospect in baseball – exceptional plate discipline, good-enough quality of contact for a 20-year-old, and, notably, the ability to overcome the first bit of adversity he has faced as a pro. The question here is whether there's enough power to make an impact immediately, just as it was before the season, so it was nice to see him homer in his first game back this week – and he missed a second homer by about four inches to the left of the foul pole. Holliday probably won't play his way into early-round consideration this season, but he absolutely has that kind of talent. | | | Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates – Can he put it all together?
| | The talent is certainly there, and we've seen some flashes, like his .271/.323/.533 line in July. But strikeouts remain a big problem, especially against left-handed pitching, who have limited him to a .163/.188/.347 line this season with a 36.6% strikeout rate. Cruz is on pace for 26 homers and 15 steals, which makes him a solid Fantasy option, but hardly the difference-maker we hoped he could become. Cruz remains a Stanton/Judge-esque outlier in terms of hitting the ball hard, but we'd like to see him iron out some of the flaws in his game down the stretch. | | Steven Kwan, OF, Guardians – Can he sustain the breakout? | | In some ways, he has: Kwan continued his power breakout with four homers in July, though some cracks started to show in the rest of his game as he hit just .250/.286/.380 despite the power, with quality of contact metrics that backed up his slump. I'm not suggesting Kwan somehow sold out for power, or anything, but it's worth noting that his underlying numbers haven't really been as good as his actual production for most of the season, and now the underlying numbers are starting to collapse, as he had just a .306 expected wOBA in July. Kwan looked like an early-round pick for the first three months of the season, but he could play his way back into the 100-ish range if he doesn't get hot again. | | Garrett Crochet, SP, White Sox – Can he remain an ace? | | When it comes to his 2025 value, I'm not sure anything Crochet does from this point on really matters. He's already at an unprecedented level of innings, and his workload is clearly going to be managed the rest of the way, with an inevitable shutdown seeming likely, if not guaranteed. So, in some ways, this one doesn't really matter – if you're a believer in Crochet's ability to hold up next season, it makes perfect to just buy into him based on the upside he showed so far, which is legitimate top-10 stuff. But I'd feel a whole lot better about paying full freight for that if he was able to remain healthy and effective the rest of the way, even if he doesn't consistently throw even five-plus innings. You're going to need Crochet to be capable of 160-plus innings to justify what is sure to be an early-round cost for him next season, so if he can at least stay on the mound the rest of the way, it would be a lot easier to project that for 2025 – even if he might be a fringe Fantasy starter the rest of the way. | | Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees – Can he rediscover his Cy Young form? | | We've seen flashes of that form from Cole, but not much more than flashes, and not consistently enough. When he struck out 15 in 12 innings across two starts in mid-June, it sure seemed like a safe bet that he was back … only for Cole to go out and get touched up for six runs over 5.2 innings in his next start, and he hasn't made another since while dealing with general fatigue. That isn't considered to be a serious issue, but what is serious is that Cole just doesn't seem to have gotten the feel for his slider back after his preseason elbow injury. He did throw it 30% of the time in his most recent start, which is a decent sign despite it being one of his worst starts of the season. I'll be watching Cole closely this weekend for signs of his pre-2024 form. | | Hunter Greene, SP, Reds – Can he sustain the breakout? | | I suspect Greene is going to be a pretty controversial player in 2025 drafts, mostly because it's not exactly clear why he's been so much more effective than previous seasons. Actually, that's not 100% true – Greene's improvement is almost entirely tied to improved quality of contact suppression, especially with his fastball. What's not clear is why his fastball has been so much better. The physical characteristics of the pitch aren't significantly different, and his command doesn't seem that much better when you just look at zone heat maps. There are plenty of people who are deeply skeptical of Greene as a result, so he's got his work cut out the rest of the way to try to prove it isn't a fluke. Let's see if he can continue to keep the ball in the yard. | | | | News and Notes | | Max Fried could rejoin the Braves rotation Sunday against the Marlins . He resumed throwing last weekend and threw a bullpen without issue Tuesday as he continues to recover from forearm neuritis. That was a scary injury when it was announced, though the fact that it also came with reports of no structural damage tempered the disappointment. Fried carries a lot of risk with multiple forearm injuries over the past year, but as long as he's healthy, I'm going to start him. | | Tanner Bibee's next scheduled start will be pushed back a few days due to right shoulder tightness. That means he won't start this weekend and loses his two-start status, though if that's all he misses, we'll consider that a best-case scenario at this point. | | Julio Rodriguez has begun some light baseball activities but remains without a clear timetable to return. Jerry Dipoto noted that the nature of high-ankle injuries makes it difficult to predict a recovery timeline. | | Jordan Westburg was officially placed on the IL with a fractured right hand. The Orioles also optioned Heston Kjerstad back to Triple-A. Eloy Jimenez is also still less than 100% from an early-season hamstring injury and will likely be limited to some DH and pinch-hitting opportunities for now. | | Luis Rengifo was out of the lineup after re-injuring his wrist on a swing Wednesday. | | Reynaldo Lopez will not start Saturday as initially expected but is still considered day-to-day after leaving his previous start with forearm tightness. This one feels ominous, and given how much Lopez was overperforming his underlying metrics when healthy, my expectations are quite low for him the rest of the way. | | Jack Flaherty will make his Dodgers debut Saturday against the A's. | | Alex Cobb will make a rehab start at Triple-A on Saturday. If everything goes well, he should join the Guardians after that. | | Here's a name we haven't heard in a while: Tyler Mahle should return to the Rangers' rotation next week. Mahle is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and has looked good in six rehab starts: 2.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 18 K over 18 IP. He is 14% rostered and is worth a look in deeper 15-team leagues if you want to speculate on some upside. | | Parker Meadows is likely to be activated by the Tigers this weekend. Meadows was a big disappointment earlier in the season, but was really good after going back to Triple-A, hitting .294/.392/.503, and still has plenty of five-category upside he can tap into. | | Wednesday's standouts | | Sonny Gray, Cardinals @CHC: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – After Gray had a 6.75 ERA in the month of July, this was a much-needed return to form. He never stopped getting strikeouts and his control remained impeccable throughout his struggles, so I never really worried too much about Gray's viability moving forward – heck, even homers weren't that big of an issue outside of one four-homer game. Consistency has always been an issue for Gray, but the underlying skill set never really gave any reason to be concerned, so I wasn't. He remains a must-start pitcher, albeit one who will be prone to the occasional blow up, sure. | | Shota Imanaga, Cubs vs. STL: 6.2 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Imanaga might just be in the same lineage as Gray. There's no way I'd ever really consider sitting him, and even this start wasn't that bad – the ERA and WHIP are inflated, obviously, which isn't ideal, but he also mostly got BABIPed to death in this one, with seven singles among his 10 hits allowed. That's not to say this was a fluke or just bad news or something – he allowed two homers, after all – but it's just to say that I don't really see anything here to be worried about. Imanaga is going to have stretches where he can't keep the ball in the yard and struggles, but on the whole, I see no reason to think he's not a must-start pitcher moving forward. | | Seth Lugo, Royals @DET: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – We're going on four months and counting of Lugo being one of the biggest overperformers in baseball. So what's going on? What are the underlying stats missing? He lowered his ERA to 2.57 with this outing, despite an xERA close to 4.00 still. Partly, I think it's reasonable to assume that his kitchen sink approach to pitching – Lugo threw nine different pitches yesterday – just does a good job of keeping hitters off balance, though you'd think that would still show up in his ability to generate weak contact, which has mostly been pretty average; that wasn't true Thursday, as he allowed 24 balls in play but with an average exit velocity of just 83.6 mph. For what it's worth, Lugo did struggle a bit in July, posting a 4.78 ERA, though obviously that didn't slow him down here. I'm kind of at a loss to explain why Lugo keeps confounding expectations, but I will say, I still don't think you should be buying the surface-level numbers. And I guess I'll just keep saying that until he wins the AL Cy Young. | | Ben Lively, Guardians vs. BAL: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – It's not entirely clear how Lively keeps getting away with this. He generates very few swings and misses, and while his control is solid, it isn't a standout skill for him. It mostly comes down to his ability to generate tons of weak contact with a good defense behind him, and it's certainly an approach he has made work for him for the most part. I still don't see much to get excited about with Lively, but he's solid if nothing else. | | Max Meyer , Marlins @ATL: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Meyer's return from the minors was much anticipated, but our excitement level may have outstripped what he is actually capable of. Meyer is an interesting young pitcher, sure, but he's also very much not a finished product yet, with an arsenal that consists of a very good slider and, frankly, not much else. He has a decent fastball, but not a great one when it's sitting 93.9 mph like it was Thursday, and his changeup remains more interesting than consistently effective. I think Meyer still has some upside, but given the team context and his obvious flaws right now, I'm not sure he's anywhere close to a must-roster player right now. | | Trevor Rogers, Orioles @CLE: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – It's just one start against a very tough matchup, but I sure didn't see any reason to think Rogers is set to thrive in Baltimore. Maybe the Orioles see something in him they can unlock, but I'm skeptical, and wouldn't expect to see the results of that until the offseason even if I did believe in it. He can pretty safely be ignored in most Fantasy leagues. | | Matt Olson, 1B, Braves – Olson is just red hot right now, with five homers in his past six games, including three over the past two. It's been a frustrating season for Olson, but I've been trying to buy low on him everywhere I can because he's still the kind of player who can go on a scorcher for a couple of months and absolutely carry your team. He might be at the start of one of those runs right now. | | Cody Bellinger, OF, Cubs – I've been critical of Bellinger for more than a year, so credit where it's due: He's been awesome since coming back from his finger injury, with seven hits, five runs, five RBI, and a homer in three games. I still don't buy him as the impact bat he was last season, but he's also remained a top-30 outfielder for me when healthy despite his struggles, because of his solid all-around contributions. | | Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals – We had a discussion about Pasquantino's lack of power on Wednesday's Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, so it's only fitting that he went deep twice Thursday. It feels like that has happened a couple of times with Pasquantino alone this season, so maybe we just need to keep noticing his poor production. Look, he's been a fine Fantasy option, mostly because he's driving in a ton of runs, but it's still disappointing that he's not more impactful, and I think his home park plays a big part in that. Notably, his two homers Thursday came on the road. | | Hunter Strickland, RP, Angels – For the second time since the deadline, the Angels turned to Strickland to work the ninth inning, with Ben Joyce stuck in a setup role. The good news for Joyce here is that, while he worked a scoreless eighth, Strickland blew the save with a two-run homer in the ninth inning. That doesn't necessarily mean Joyce is going to get the next save opportunity, but I do think he's better than Strickland and should get a chance at some point. | | | | | | | | BIG3 | | USL | BIG3 is back with a tripleheader! Watch Enemies vs. 3’s Company, Tri State vs. Ghost Ballers and Bivouac vs. Triplets this Sunday at 3 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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