| | | | Tuesday, August 13, 2024 | | Here's a little peek behind the curtain for my process today: Yesterday, I wrote a whole intro for today's newsletter about the return of Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker to the big leagues. It featured a whole in-depth breakdown of how things have gone wrong for Walker since his time as one of the most hyped prospects in baseball, and how he might be figuring out, and you can read all about that here. | | In short: Yeah, I think it's still worth getting excited about Walker, even if it's not 100% clear he has an everyday role in St. Louis. But a funny thing happened between the time I initially wrote about Walker and when it came time to publish this newsletter: A significantly more exciting prospect got the call. One we've been waiting literally all season for. | | The spotlight turns to Junior Caminero, by far the most exciting prospect still biding his time in the minors, as Scott White documented last week. The Rays did a lot to clear a path to everyday playing time for Camerino at the trade deadline, and they finally decided to call him up this week. | | We'll get to my thoughts on Caminero, as well as the rest of the waiver-wire targets from Monday – a day with a surprising amount of very interesting players to consider adding – plus everything else you need to know about from around MLB in the rest of the newsletter. | | Let's get to it: | | | | Tuesday's waiver targets | | | | Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays (63%) – Caminero should have been up months ago. On Opening Day, arguably, but between the Rays' tendency to let prospects fully ripen in the minors and a few poorly timed injuries, the time was just never right for him. Remember, Caminero got a cup of coffee late last season, and while he wasn't dominant, he hardly looked overmatched, so it's pretty annoying that it ended up taking another 11 months for him to get the call. But he's back now, and it should be for good. He's hit .277/.331/.498 in Triple-A this season, and while those numbers may not jump off the page, you have to remember, he's a 20-year-old in his first taste of Triple-A who has missed significant amounts of time this season, so it's not exactly surprising that he's been less production than last season. He still looks like a future 30-homer guy with real contact skills, and a potentially difference-making bat overall. Even acknowledging that it's been a tough transition for so many of the most-hyped rookies this season, Caminero is still a must-add talent and someone who could absolutely help lead you to a championship down the road if all goes well. | | Matthew Boyd, SP, Guardians (9%) – Sure, why not? Boyd has been working his way back from Tommy John surgery and has been pretty dominant on his rehab assignment, striking out 27 and walking just two while posting a 0.83 ERA in 21.2 innings over five starts. Boyd has never had an ERA under 4.00 in more than 100 innings at the major-league level, so skepticism is certainly warranted, but there's been big strikeout upside amid the struggles, and maybe this is one of those cases where a pitcher comes back from injury with something new. In his most recent rehab start, Boyd was sitting at 91.5 mph with his four-seamer, which is down a bit from his peak, but he still generated 13 whiffs on 63 pitches, primarily with his slider and changeup. Boyd probably won't end up making an impact this season for Fantasy, but if you get a chance to take a cheap bet on a once-talented pitcher, in an organization with a well-earned reputation for maximizing pitching talent, why not take it? | | | | Zebby Matthews, SP, Twins (18%) – The Twins are calling Matthews up from Triple-A and he should join the rotation in the next couple of days and he's an arm worth a second look, at least. Matthews has made the leap from High-A to the majors this season, posting a 2.60 ERA, 114 strikeouts, and just seven walks in 97 innings overall. It's unclear whether his extreme strike-throwing approach will work out quite as well in the majors – for what it's worth, he gave up four homers in four Triple-A starts after giving up just three in 14 at the lower levels combined – but he's certainly an intriguing talent, one who could be worth adding in deeper leagues, especially if he shines in his debut. On the other hand, the Twins have been very cautious with their usage of young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa, and they might take a similar kid's-gloves approach to Matthews, so keep that in mind. | | Andres Chaparro, 3B, Nationals (2%) – The Nationals acquired Chaparro from the Diamondbacks at the deadline and are calling him up after just 10 games in their organization. The 25-year-old is having a breakout season, with 23 homers in 105 games at Double-A, with a very good 17.9% strikeout rate. He's an older prospect who had a sub .800 OPS in his first stint in Triple-A last season, so the likelihood of him replicating his success so far this season at the major-league level seems pretty slim. But he could have a path to regular playing time in Washington, and they've done a good job maximizing similar names like Jacob Young, Lane Thomas, and Juan Yepez in recent seasons, so maybe Chaparro can be the next one. He's worth a look in deeper leagues. | | Jhonkensy Noel, OF, Guardians (16%) – Noel has huge power, and he put it on display Monday, homering twice in a four-RBI game. He's actually mostly held his own in his first taste of big-league action, with a .250 average and .887 OPS, to go with eight homers in 31 games. The problem here is that he just hasn't been an everyday player, starting just four of his past 11 games. If the Guardians gave him more rope, I think Noel could be a legitimately useful Fantasy option, so let's see if they give him more opportunities coming off this big game. | | Bowden Francis, SP, Blue Jays (21%) – Francis tossed a gem Monday against the Angels , limiting them to just one earned run on one hit while striking out eight over seven innings of work. He has struggled on the whole in his first full big-league season, but he did this coming off a seven-strikeout game, so he might be starting to figure some things out. He added a splitter to his arsenal for the first time Monday, and while it didn't lead to great results, maybe it helped the overall profile play up? Or maybe it was just a fluke against a beatable matchup. I can't say I'm super excited about adding him, but he's worth a look in some deeper leagues. | | | | News and Notes | | Jazz Chisholm left Monday night due to a left elbow injury. X-rays came back negative, and he'll undergo an MRI Tuesday just to make sure it isn't a serious injury. If he does have to miss time, it seems unlikely that would lead to Jasson Dominguez's return to the majors, seeing as Chisholm had started just one game in the outfield for the Yankees so far. | | Kyle Tucker ramped up his on-field workouts on Monday, jogging and taking fly balls in left field. He still doesn't have a timetable to return, but these were the most intense workouts we've seen from him and could be a sign that he's progressing enough to be on the verge of a rehab assignment. | | The Red Sox issued Jarren Duran a two-game suspension after he was caught using a homophobic slur on Sunday. He started serving the suspension immediately and will be eligible to return Wednesday. | | Michael Harris is expected to return Wednesday. He's been on the IL since June 15 with a strained left hamstring. | | Ketel Marte was back in the lineup after missing Sunday's game with a left ankle contusion, but he then left Monday's game early after re-aggravating the injury. He'll undergo an MRI on his left ankle Tuesday. | | Bo Bichette is progressing well from a right calf strain and the team is hopeful he can resume baseball activities within the next week. He's probably still out until September, but it sure would be nice to see a good final month in what has otherwise been a disastrous season for Biggio. | | Jordan Romano is progressing well and feeling good following his arthroscopic surgery on July 3, but he's yet to restart a throwing program. | | Logan O'Hoppe left Monday night due to right knee soreness. | | Reynaldo Lopez will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Tuesday. He's on the IL with right forearm inflammation and might be able to return to the rotation next week if all goes well. | | Yu Darvish has been working out and throwing on his own, most recently tossing a live BP at a San Diego high school on Sunday. Darvish hasn't pitched since May 29. He originally went on the IL with a left groin strain then felt minor elbow inflammation, but has been away from the team dealing with a personal matter. | | Nathan Eovaldi was diagnosed with a low-grade right oblique strain and is expected to have his next start pushed back. The expectation is that he will avoid the injured list. | | Starling Marte could return from the IL this weekend. He's been out since June 25 with a bone bruise in his right knee. | | Tyler Black was recalled by the Brewers. He has some interesting skills, it's just not clear if he's going to get an opportunity to play every day for the Brewers. | | Ryne Nelson will be available out of the bullpen Wednesday in case it's an abbreviated start for Jordan Montgomery. If Nelson isn't needed, he'll start Friday against the Rays. Either way, it seems like his time as a starter could be coming to an end now that the rotation is healthy. | | The Brewers optioned DL Hall back to Triple-A Monday after a mixed start on Sunday. | | James Paxton was placed on the IL with a right calf strain. | | The Blue Jays promoted Will Wagner on Monday, the son of Billy Wagner. He came over from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade and went 3 for 4 with a double in his debut while batting sixth. He had a solid season in the minors, with excellent plate discipline, but I'm just not sure he's going to play every day on a roster with a couple of other similar players. | | Kris Bryant was placed on the IL with a back strain. Jordan Beck was recalled and is a name to watch in those deeper five outfielder leagues if he gets the chance to play. | | The Mariners must like what they see from Victor Robles because they signed him to a two-year, $9.75 million extension on Monday. Robles is hitting 303/.372/.450 since joining the Mariners, with the best quality of contact numbers of his career. It might be for real. | | Monday's standouts | | Blake Snell, Giants vs. ATL: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K – That's now a 0.99 ERA and 0.60 WHIP over the past seven starts, with 60 strikeouts in 45.1 innings of work, after Snell's absolute disaster of an opening three months. You just have to laugh at this point. No matter how good Snell is right now, there's simply no guarantee he'll even be useful for Fantasy early next season; it's also true that, no matter how bad Snell might be early next season, there's simply no reason to think he won't just figure it out and get back to dominating. All we can be confident in is, at some point, Snell is going to go on a run where he looks like the best pitcher in baseball. He rode a run like that to a Cy Young last season, and while he (probably) won't do that again this season, I see no real reason to bet against him right now. | | Framber Valdez , Astros @TB: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Valdez's turnaround hasn't been nearly as dramatic as Snell's, but it's pretty notable how he has suddenly turned himself into a strikeout pitcher. After striking out just 19.3% of batters in his first four starts en route to a 3.80 ERA, he has a 31% strikeout rate and 2.56 ERA over his past seven starts. I don't necessarily buy Valdez suddenly being an elite strikeout pitcher, but this turnaround does coincide with Valdez throwing his curveball as his primary pitch, and he's also throwing his changeup more lately, too. It all adds up to a much better version of Valdez than we saw early in the season, at least. | | Shota Imanaga, Cubs @CLE: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Imanaga was probably lucky not to get worse results today, as he had an additional four unearned runs on his line. His fastball just wasn't generating whiffs, and his splitter was getting crushed, with a 92.1 mph average exit velocity in this one. I think this was just one of those starts for Imanaga, and I don't see too much reason to be worried at this point. After all, it was his first start with fewer than 5.2 innings since late June. | | Sonny Gray , Cardinals @CIN: 5 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – It's been a bit of a roller coaster for Gray of late, as he had two excellent starts prior to this one, which was preceded by a pretty rocky stretch. Homers have been an issue, and that might explain why he prioritized his cutter ahead of his four-seamer in this one; the problem there is, Gray's cutter hasn't exactly been great, with a .358 xwOBA and 93.8 mph average exit velocity allowed. It's been a frustrating run for Gray, but I still think he's someone you want in your lineup moving forward, even if the ERA might be closer to 4.00 than you'd prefer. | | Luis Gil, Yankees @CHW: 4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Against the White Sox ? Really? I don't really think there's much to be worried about here, to be honest. Gil struggles with consistency from time to time, and he hasn't had the feel for his changeup lately, leaving him to rely heavily on his slider as his primary pitch. That's usually not a bad thing, but on nights when he isn't quite on top of his game, it could lead to some crooked numbers. I have my concerns about how Gil is going to fair down the stretch having already thrown 117.2 more innings than he did last season, but with most trade deadlines passed, I think you probably just do what the Yankees are likely to do: Ride him until the wheels come off. | | Taj Bradley, Rays vs. HOU: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – That gives Bradley a 9.64 ERA over the past three starts, and it's fair to wonder if he might not be hitting a wall here in what has otherwise been a breakout season. Even when things were going well for Braldye, he was still giving up a lot of hard contact, and these kinds of blowups might just be a fact of life until he figures things out fully. He clearly hasn't yet, but I still think Bradley's per-start upside makes him someone I want in my lineup moving forward. | | Joe Musgrove, Padres vs. PIT: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – Making his first start since late May, Musgrove got fine results, and he was probably lucky to get even that. He allowed eight hard hits and a 93.1 mph average exit velocity while generating just the one strikeout and six whiffs total on 63 pitches. It was just the one start, and it came after just one rehab start, so some rust was to be expected coming off an elbow injury. But if you were hoping Musgrove would return as a must-start pitcher, well, I don't think we saw any reason to call him that right now. Keep him stashed on the bench and let him prove he's worth starting before you do, especially with his fastball velocity down 1.3 mph in this one. | | Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers @MIL: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Given all he's been through at this point in his career, it's pretty remarkable that Kershaw is able to pitch in the majors at all, let alone at the level he has been. Kershaw hasn't been the peak version of himself, and the fact that he seems capped around 80-85 pitches in any given start makes it unlikely he's ever going to be a must-start Fantasy option. But he's been more good than bad in his return from shoulder surgery and should at least be useful against the right matchups. That's a big deal, even if it might not seem like it for Fantasy. | | Andrew Abbott, Reds vs. STL: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Abbott entered this one with a 6.56 ERA in his previous five starts, so he really needed this one. He decided to lean on his sweeper more in this one, and it worked out, generating six of his nine whiffs, and maybe that's a path forward here – his sweeper had a .182 xwOBA entering this start, an elite mark, so throwing that more would make sense. I think Abbott is probably just a fringe Fantasy option, but if you hadn't dropped him yet, you don't need to after this one. | | Brady Singer, Royals @MIN: 5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – The regression monster comes for us all, and it's here for Singer. He had quality starts in three of his final July starts to get his ERA down to 2.82 at one point; it's up to 3.32 for the season after he gave up 10 runs over his past two starts. Singer has rarely been much more than a streaming type for Fantasy, and his underlying numbers never supported his strong first four months, so I hope you never believed in it. It was fine to ride him when things were going well, but I think Singer is a pretty easy drop if you're looking for any kind of upside on the wire. | | Tyler Mahle, Rangers @BOS: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – One common trend among pitchers coming back from elbow injuries this year has been diminished effectiveness with their sliders, and that's what we've seen from Mahle in his first two starts back from Tommy John surgery. He didn't generate a single whiff with the pitch in his first start and had just one with the pitch today. He managed to be effective mostly with his four-seamer, which had a massive 50% whiff rate en route to 11 swings and misses. That probably won't be sustainable, so Mahle will probably need to figure out how to get back to generating swings and misses with the slider. It might not happen until the offseason, so I don't really think Mahle is much more than a lottery ticket for your bench, though one who probably doesn't have ace upside. | | | | | | | | We Need To Talk | | Carabao Cup | We Need To Talk is LIVE tonight at 9 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. Watch the FIRST-ever all women's sports show as its hosts discuss topics across the sports landscape.
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