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| Thursday, January 6, 2022 |
| We've turned part of our attention to the 2022 season here at Fantasy Football Today HQ, but we know some of you are still playing in Week 18, and you need lineup help, too! |
| So, before we get to the bulk of today's newsletter -- featuring my way-too-early top-10 rankings for tight end in 2022, including the case for why Kyle Pitts should be your top priority, if not the first tight end taken -- make sure you check out Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em column here, where he's expecting big things for Devin Singletary as the Bills fight to lock up the AFC East this weekend. Dave Richard's <em>Starts, Sits, Sleepers, & Busts</em> column is also here with his recommendations for every Week 18 game. |
| Also, one last call for the 2021 Fantasy Football Today awards voting, so head to that link to vote on the Fantasy MVP, Rookie of the Year and more. I'll have the winners in tomorrow's newsletter along with my way-too-early top-24 overall players for the 2021 season. |
| And now, here's why Kyle Pitts might just deserve to be one of those 24. OK, maybe not that high, but .. well, just read on ! |
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| Early 2022 TE rankings |
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| Kyle Pitts isn't the No. 1 tight end for me for 2022. I ended up going with Travis Kelce just ahead of Mark Andrews, but I think you can go with either in this case – it's a tough choice, but I think both should be top-15 picks, so the stakes aren't that high. If you want a tight end early, take one of them. |
| But I think Pitts is where the position gets really interesting, because he's one of just a few tight ends with true, difference-making potential who won't come with a top-two-round price tag. That means he might have the most profit potential at the position, but how early is too early to take him? |
| I'd argue that it's almost impossible to overrate Pitts heading into his second season. He had the fourth-best rookie season for a tight end in terms of PPR points ever, and the best since 1988. He did that while scoring just one touchdown on 105 targets, an absurdly low rate even in a bad offense. He ended up being a slight disappointment for Fantasy because of that, but he really had an incredible season overall. |
| Among all players with at least 100 targets in 2021, he ranked sixth in yards per target at 9.7. Mark Andrews was the only tight end above 9.0 (he was at 9.25), and Travis Kelce was the only other one above 8.0. Already, he's in rarified air, and he bested the two best tight ends in that regard. |
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| Of course, he wasn't just great within the context of tight ends. He ranked 10th among all players with at least 100 targets in yards per route run at 2.13, just ahead of CeeDee Lamb and just behind Tyreek Hill. |
| If that doesn't put how good he was in perspective, how about this: He was just the seventh player ever with at least 1,000 receiving yards in his age-21 season. And Pitts didn't turn 21 until Week 5. To put that into context, Ja'Marr Chase also had 1,000-plus yards as a 21-year-old, and his birthday was seven months earlier than Pitts'. At a time when many players are still juniors in college, Pitts was putting up historic production in the NFL. |
| When Andrews was Pitts' age, he was a sophomore at Oklahoma, where he had 489 yards in 12 games. George Kittle had six catches in two seasons at Iowa when he was Pitts' age. Kelce was in his third year in college at Pitts' age. What Pitts did as a rookie was unprecedented. |
| Now, that doesn't mean he's going to take a leap to the elite tier at tight end in Year 2. Progress isn't always linear, after all. But Pitts is already an outlier among outliers based on what he did at his age as a rookie. If you're going to bet on anyone to make a Kelce/Kittle/Andrews-esque leap, he's the obvious choice, and it wouldn't really be asking for much – an extra target or two per game and some better results near the end zone would do it. |
| I haven't done my full top 100 yet, but I'm starting to think Pitts should be a third-round pick in 2022 drafts. After that Kelce/Andrews/Kittle tier, but not far behind them. |
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| Here's how my top 10 shakes out at tight end: |
| Travis Kelce – It's still Kelce for me. How much of his decline this season was related to his age and how much was just the malaise around the Chiefs offense for much of the season is the big question. I think he brings the most upside, and at tight end, that's what I'm looking for. Mark Andrews – Andrews has plenty of upside of his own, especially if the Ravens keep their pass volume as high as they did this season. I would bet there's going to be some regression on that count, which pushes him down just a tad. George Kittle – Kittle might be the best tight end in the game, and he's averaged a whopping 9.8 yards per target or better in four straight seasons. Volume is the biggest concern here along with questions about how good Trey Lance can be, but injuries have also been an issue as well. Kyle Pitts – Expectations were incredibly high, and while Pitts was a bit of a disappointment for Fantasy, he was as good as expected. It's hard to overstate how good he's been as a 21-year-old rookie. Darren Waller – Even before his injury, Waller was having a disappointing season, but let's not overstate it – he was on pace for 85 catches and 1,029 yards in 16 games. He can still very much be an elite Fantasy TE.Rob Gronkowski – Will Gronkowski return in 2022? He showed this season he can still be a high-end starter in this offense, but given his age and injury history, he'll definitely be a risk. T.J. Hockenson – Hockenson might be a nice buy-low candidate in drafts after being such a disappointment this season. Maybe he just doesn't have what it takes to be a high-end starting tight end, but it's also possible he was just held back by a largely dysfunctional offensive environment. If I miss out on the top tier and he falls far enough into the middle rounds, Hockenson seems like a nice investment. Dallas Goedert – Goedert has been exceptional on a per-target basis. The problem is, targets have been very hard to come by, even without Zach Ertz around. Goedert is on pace for 91 targets since Ertz was traded, which makes his 982-yard pace seem pretty hard to sustain. The Eagles will likely pass more than they have during that stretch, but this is still going to be a very low-volume pass offense, so Goedert might have trouble living up to his full potential. Dalton Schultz – We'll see if the return of Blake Jarwin impacts Schultz, but at this point, you have to think he's locked his role in, given how good he's been. Schultz will likely never be more than a low-end TE1, and there's a bit of a dropoff here, but he also seems likely to be the kind of option you don't have to worry about. Zach Ertz – There's another tier drop here, however he was on pace for 800 yards in his time in Arizona, which would make him a viable starter, if not at all a difference maker. He's an easy one to leave off the list if you'd rather include Pat Freiermuth or someone else coming up. |
| 🚑Week 18 Injury Watch |
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| Here are the injuries to watch for Week 18: |
| Wednesday practice report updates |
| Quarterback |
| Lamar Jackson (ankle) - Did not practice. Joe Burrow (rest/knee) – Did not practice. Won't play in Week 18. Justin Fields (ankle) – Full practice. Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb) – Limited practice. Jared Goff (knee) – Limited practice. Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) – Did not practice. Drew Lock (shoulder) – Limited practice. Mike Glennon (wrist) – Did not practice. Jake Fromm will start vs. Washington. |
| Running back |
| Cam Akers (Achilles) – Full practice. He's expected to have a role in Week 18. Nick Chubb (chest/ribs) – Limited practice. Kareem Hunt (ankle) – Limited practice. Chase Edmonds (ribs/toe) – Did not practice. James Conner (heel) – Limited practice. Antonio Gibson (hip) – Limited practice. Ronald Jones (ankle) – Did not practice. Elijah Mitchell (knee) – Did not practice. Miles Sanders (hand) – Did not practice. Boston Scott and Jordan Howard were also added to the COVID list. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) – Did not practice. Michael Carter (concussion) – Did not practice. Mark Ingram (knee) – Limited practice. Ke'Shawn Vaughn (ribs) – Full practice. |
| Wide receiver |
| Mike Evans (hamstring) – Limited practice. DK Metcalf (foot) – Limited practice. Kadarius Toney (shoulder) – Limited practice. Braxton Berrios (quad) – DNP.Rondale Moore (ankle) – Limited practice. Robby Anderson (quad) – Did not practice. Emmanuel Sanders (knee) – Did not practice. Curtis Samuel (hamstring) – Did not practice. |
| Tight end |
| Darren Waller (knee) – Limited practice. Noah Fant (shoulder) – Limited practice. Ricky Seals-Jones (concussion) – Did not practice. David Njoku (shoulder) – Did not practice. James O'Shaughnessy (hip) – Did not practice. |
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