It Started with a Mini Tire/Poultry Trade War

By Ed D'Agostino | September 22, 2023

Global trade patterns are shifting.

A few short years ago, the US was content to rely on Chinese manufacturing because China built good products on the cheap. Then COVID-era supply chain breakdowns highlighted the folly of depending on our prime adversary.

Now US companies—with deep-pocket support from the US government—are building more resilient supply chains by reshoring, nearshoring, and friendshoring production. Some call this deglobalization. If you caught my recent interview with Louis Gave, you know he calls it “de-Sinicization,” or a move away from China.

My guest today on Global Macro Update, Jacob Shapiro, says all these labels miss the nuance of how trade patterns are changing.

Jacob is the Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments. He also co-founded Geopolitical Futures with legendary geopolitical strategist (and longtime friend of Mauldin Economics) George Friedman.

In our interview, Jacob breaks down why the last 30 years of globalization were an aberration and how it started to unwind with President Obama’s mini tire/poultry trade war. Jacob also shares which country will become “the next China” and what these new trade patterns mean for US consumers.

You will also hear:

Why Russia is meddling in Africa

What Taiwan wants more than anything

Why Jacob is bullish on Mexico—with a few caveats

Why Japan is building two completely separate supply chains

The roles India, Brazil, and Turkey will play in the new global market

You can watch my full interview with Jacob Shapiro on YouTube by clicking the image below.

A full transcript of our conversation is available here.

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