| July 02, 2025 | | | | | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
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| Observations & Insight | | |
Leverage WTI Weekly options to manage weekend risk ahead of the 4th of July and OPEC weekend. See how.
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OCC June 2025 Monthly Volume Data
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| Lead Stories | | | Oil futures, options trade at record levels in Q2 as investors navigate volatility
Georgina Mccartney - Reuters
Total oil futures and options lots traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) hit record highs in the second quarter, as U.S. President Donald Trump waged a trade war and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East escalated.
WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
Significant volatility in the second quarter had global benchmark Brent crude futures dropping to a four-year low of $60.23 a barrel on May 5 and then surging to $78.85 on June 19, the highest since January, according to data from LSEG.
/jlne.ws/4nvSwUk
The bold place bets on VIX: Research finds investors turn to 'fear index' trading despite potential for high returns
Deborah Lynn Blumberg - MSN
Since Wall Street's "fear index" spiked in April, even casual investors have watched it nervously for signs of whether to buy, hold, or run for their lives.
The CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, signals the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. When the VIX rises, investors expect steeper ups and downs. When it falls, it suggests calmer conditions.
/jlne.ws/44CFjAK
Traders' Fear of Missing Out on Stock Gains Outweighs Tariff Concerns
Alexandra Semenova - Bloomberg
President Donald Trump's tariff pause is set to end on July 9, with few deals locked in and scant progress in negotiations. Yet the stock market that once swung wildly on trade headlines appears to see little risk, as equity indexes sit near all-time highs and volatility evaporates.In part, the calm is being fueled by expectations that Trump will extend his tariff deadline based on his pattern of threatening harsh measures and subsequently backing down, a strategy analysts and strategists call "TACO" for "Trump Always Chickens Out." But more importantly, Wall Street pros see no sense in fighting the market's momentum as the economy remains healthy and Corporate America appears to be taking trade policies in stride - at least for now.
/jlne.ws/4ltCV5W
'Irrational Exuberance' Stock Gauge Sparks Fresh Bubble Worries
Alexandra Semenova - Bloomberg
Wall Street speculators have returned in full force: US stocks have snapped back from the throes of April's tariff selloff, hovering near record highs, the pipeline of new SPACs is rebounding and Cathie Wood's flagship fund is on a historic tear.
That's sparked a swift jump in a Barclays Plc measure of the market's "irrational exuberance" - a phrase coined by former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan for when prices exceed assets' fundamental values. The one-month average on the proprietary gauge has swung back into the double-digits for the first time since February - reaching levels that have signaled extreme frothiness in the past.
/jlne.ws/44J9fw1
The Stock Market Is Hitting New Highs. Things Aren't as Calm as They Seem.
Jacob Sonenshine - Barron's
The S&P 500's race to the top has been nothing but a series of bumps along the way.
The index closed at two new highs in June, including Monday, gaining roughly 5% this year. But the market rally has been a volatile ride upward.
/jlne.ws/45MBqv7
Citadel and Millennium outshone by smaller hedge fund rivals after trade war turmoil; Ken Griffin's flagship fund was up 2.5% in the first half of 2025, while Izzy Englander's firm gained 2.2%
Costas Mourselas - Financial Times
Hedge fund giants Citadel and Millennium have been outshone by smaller rivals so far this year, as the firms were stung by the market volatility unleashed by Donald Trump's trade war. Citadel's flagship Wellington fund gained 2.5 per cent in the first half of 2025 while Millennium gained 2.2, according to people familiar with the matter. Balyasny and ExodusPoint were up 7.3 per cent and 9.3 per cent, respectively, according to people who have seen the figures.
/jlne.ws/3I6XvKX
Euro Runs Its Best Winning Streak in Two Decades Versus Dollar
Vassilis Karamanis and Anya Andrianova - Bloomberg
The European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said that while a move to $1.20 is "acceptable," further gains would make policymakers' task more complicated.
The euro notched its longest winning streak against the dollar in more than two decades - and options traders are betting the rally isn't over yet.
The greenback's recovery earlier in the day pressured the common currency, leading it to curb its advance after it touched the highest level since September 2021 earlier in the session. It's the longest stretch for the euro since 2004, eclipsed only twice since the currency's inception in 1999.
/jlne.ws/4ltwJei
India's new light touch on FX volatility spurs hedging ramp-up
Nimesh Vora and Jaspreet Kalra - Reuters
The Reserve Bank of India's increased tolerance for rupee volatility is prompting companies to more actively manage forex risks, enhancing the economy's resilience to global shocks.
Since RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra assumed office in December, the rupee's daily trading ranges have nearly tripled and a key volatility indicator has doubled, reflecting the central bank's reduced intervention in forex markets.
/jlne.ws/4nD05sD
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| Exchanges | | | Miami International Holdings Announces Successful Launch of MIAX Futures Onyx Trading Platform
MIAX
Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIH), a technology-driven leader in building and operating regulated financial markets across multiple asset classes, today announced the successful launch of MIAX Futures Onyx, a proprietary technology platform designed to power trading of agricultural and financial futures, and options on futures in geographically diverse locations.
/jlne.ws/4ldi7Qu
MIAX Exchange Group - Options Markets - Fee Change To Extend Historical Open-Close Report Data Discount
Mondovisione
On June 30, 2025, MIAX Options Exchange, MIAX Pearl Options Exchange, MIAX Emerald Options Exchange, and MIAX Sapphire Options Exchange filed with the SEC to extend the following discount for historical data requests to current monthly subscribers of the Open-Close Report: From July 1, 2025 through December 31, 2025, any single purchase of $20,000 or more of historical End-of-Day Open-Close Report data and/or historical Intra-Day Open-Close Report data by an existing subscriber to the End-of-Day or Intra-Day Open-Close Report, will receive a 20% discount when the subscriber purchases the same category of historical data for which they have a monthly subscription.
/jlne.ws/3GfFKIZ
CME Group Sets Record Quarterly and June ADV, Driven by Growth Across Asset Classes
CME Group
CME Group, the world's leading derivatives marketplace, today reported its Q2 and June 2025 market statistics, with average daily volume (ADV) reaching a new quarterly record of 30.2 million contracts and June ADV reaching a record 25.7 million contracts. In Q2, the company's ADV grew 15% year-over-year, with record quarterly volume in interest rate, agricultural and metals products. CME Group's deeply liquid SOFR futures also hit a quarterly ADV record of 4.6 million contracts.
/jlne.ws/44efGXX
B1G Numbers June 2025: Key Figures from Exchanges
SIX
After six months, turnover on SIX Swiss Exchange has reached over CHF 600 billion. This is a 21.1% increase over 2024. While the equity segment progressed by 16.1%, turnover in the ETF segment has more than doubled, reaching 68.8 billion. On BME Exchange, turnover across all segments has increased by 9.4% to reach over EUR 246 billion in the first half of the year. The Swiss blue chip index SMI declined by 2.5% in June and dropped below the 12,000 points mark. Since the start of the year, the performance stands at 2.8%. The Spanish blue chip index IBEX 35 ended the month at 13,992 points (-1.1%), which means that in the first half of the year, its performance has been 20.7%.
/jlne.ws/3TmJY4r
Nasdaq Announces the Board of Directors of its U.S. Exchanges
Nasdaq
Nasdaq, Inc. (Nasdaq: NDAQ) today announced the election of all nominated directors to the boards of the U.S. exchanges operated by the company, which include The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC, Nasdaq PHLX LLC, Nasdaq BX, Inc., Nasdaq ISE, LLC, Nasdaq MRX, LLC, and Nasdaq GEMX, LLC:
/jlne.ws/4kj0P2Y
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| Regulation & Enforcement | | | SEC Settles Charges Against Advisers and Portfolio Managers in Lawsuit Alleging Misrepresentations About Risks in Funds That Lost More than $1 Billion
SEC
On June 30, 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission obtained final judgments by consent against Defendants Antony Caine, Anish Parvataneni, LJM Funds Management, Ltd. ("LJMFM") and LJM Partners, Ltd. (collectively with LJMFM, "LJM"), whom the SEC previously charged with allegedly defrauding investors by making false and misleading statements about the risks of LJM's "net short" options trading strategy and LJM's risk management practices.
/jlne.ws/3GkWApW
SEC Approves Grayscale ETF That Includes BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA
Helene Braun - CoinDesk
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the conversion of Grayscale's Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), a filing shows. The fund tracks the price of bitcoin BTC, ethereum ETH, XRP XRP, Solana SOL and Cardano ADA. The majority of the fund's weight, currently about 80%, is in bitcoin. The SEC's letter on Tuesday noted that the fund is benchmarked to the CoinDesk 5 Index (CD5).
/jlne.ws/4kgKQ5t
ANALYSIS: UK, EU commodity derivatives rules to diverge further in one year
Luke Jeffs - FOW
The main British financial watchdog plans to introduce in one year a change to the regulation of commodity derivatives that will see the UK regime diverge further from Europe, a lawyer has said.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) plans to introduce in 12 months a rule that will effectively pass the responsibility for setting commodity derivative position limits to trading venues such as exchanges and away from the FCA itself which has done that job until now.
/jlne.ws/4kkwRvs
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| | | | John Lothian News (JLN) is the news division of John J. Lothian & Company, Inc. (JJLCO). The online media and financial services firm is staffed by derivatives industry, journalism and technology professionals. | | | | | | | John Lothian News Editorial Staff: | | | John Lothian
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