| November 05, 2024 | | | | | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
|
| | | | Observations & Insight | | |
Volatility Insight of the Week: Volatility is rising as we approach the U.S. elections, with notable increases across key markets.Track CVOL indices overnight with extended streaming hours here.
++++
The Crypto Skeptic Who Went Down the Rabbit Hole
JohnLothianNews.com
On a crisp autumn morning in Brooklyn, Zeke Faux sat in his home office in front of a Zoom virtual background featuring a mocked up gold cryptocurrency coin with Sam Bankman-Fried's profile on it and inscribed with a Latin phrase Faux described as an Easter Egg that means "It is worth nothing." The Bloomberg investigative reporter had just released the paperback version of his first book, "Number Go Up," a searing expose of the cryptocurrency world that has already made waves in financial circles. A chapter is included in the paperback edition that contains new information, since the hardback edition was released just before Bankman-Fried went on trial. But Faux's journey into the heart of crypto mania wasn't one he initially sought out.
Watch the video »
| | | | | | Lead Stories | | | Wall Street's 'fear gauge' shows traders are on edge as America heads to the polls
Joseph Adinolfi - MarketWatch
Much has been made of the elevated readings on the Cboe Volatility Index over the past month or so. But how does Wall Street's "fear gauge" stack up when compared with previous elections?
Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, crunched the numbers, and concluded that based on its closing level from Monday, the VIX has reached its highest pre-election level since 1990 -- if one excludes 2000, 2008 and 2020, when the bursting of the tech bubble, a historic financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic obscured its signal.
/jlne.ws/3YWzcpi
DJT Stock Options Potentially Bracing for a Kamala Harris Victory
Josh Enomoto - Barchart
Just hours before the conclusion of the 2024 presidential election, both the polls and the options market seemingly have aligned to one consensus opinion: Vice President Kamala Harris may be headed toward a historic victory. While it's impossible to declare such a contentious result with certainty, trading dynamics of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) lend themselves to that inference.
First, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed that Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in the Hawkeye State, 47% to 44%. What's particularly shocking about this result is the broader implication. Iowa's population is predominantly white and rural, meaning that Harris could outperform in Rust Belt states. It also suggests that the vice president may benefit from the shy Harris voter phenomenon.
/jlne.ws/3Z3Bl2x
Trump or Harris Trades? Wall Street Is Ready to Find Out
Lynn Thomasson and Simon Kennedy - Bloomberg
US election day is finally here and the only foolproof trade for investors is to go long cups of coffee as the votes are counted.
Markets will provide a real-time indicator of how Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are perceived to be faring in their push to win the Electoral College.
Here's our comprehensive guide to election trades and our live map showing results as they roll in.
/jlne.ws/3NTLfwX
U.S. Stocks Post Election-Day Climb; Dollar slips while Treasury yields edge up
Karen Langley, Rebecca Feng and Angus Berwick - The Wall Street Journal
Major indexes were solidly higher. All 11 S&P 500 sectors gained ground, while 25 of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4%, leading the major indexes.
While investors have paid close attention to the contentious U.S. presidential race, and anticipate volatility if the victor remains unknown for a prolonged time, many believe that the fundamentals fueling the stock market's rally will remain in place whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump wins the election.
/jlne.ws/3CcpHJn
US Bitcoin ETFs Suffer Record Outflows Ahead of Election Day; The group of funds saw an outflow of $579.5 million on Monday; Crypto markets are bracing for potential price volatility
Sidhartha Shukla - Bloomberg
US exchange-traded funds investing in Bitcoin recorded their highest daily net outflow to date as markets brace for Election Day. The group of 12 funds managed by the likes of BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments shed $579.5 million on Monday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The outflows come as digital-asset traders prepare for a period of heightened volatility in the immediate aftermath of the US election. The contest between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic rival Kamala Harris looks to be going down to the wire, leaving investors across asset classes planning for market upheavals. During campaigning, Trump took an avowedly pro-crypto stance, while Harris, in a measured approach, pledged to back a regulatory framework for digital assets.
/jlne.ws/4en1BsJ
Copycat ETFs Are Infiltrating a 'Finders Keepers' Tickers Market
Vildana Hajric - Bloomberg
Sticking out from the Wall Street crowd is no easy feat at the best of times. Now imagine the plight of money managers across the ever-competitive investment industry, who are struggling to assert ownership of their original ETF offerings as rival firms launch imitator products with strikingly similar tickers. That's what happened to VanEck. The asset manager is an early pioneer of tying a fund's investment theme with its ticker name - a now make-or-break practice for issuers keen to ensure their strategies stick in the minds of investors. After it launched an agriculture-focused fund in the US in 2007 with the ticker MOO, executives at the firm were left reeling after hearing that a similar product was making its debut in the European market some while later.
/jlne.ws/3YQ51js
Oil hedging activity hits record in October as traders eye market risks
Georgina Mccartney - Reuters
Investors ramped up oil futures and options trading in October to record levels in a bid to hedge growing uncertainty as war rages on in the Middle East and a bearish 2025 supply and demand outlook looms, triggering big swings in crude prices.
Hedging can help producers reduce risk and protect their production from sharp moves in the market by locking in a price for the oil. It can also give traders opportunities to profit in times of volatility.
/jlne.ws/4feEGB9
| | | | | | Exchanges | | | October Marks Highest Volume Month in ICE's History with 209 Million Contracts Traded
Intercontinental Exchange
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today announced that October 2024 marked its highest volume month in its history with a record 209 million contracts traded across futures and options. "The extent of trading activity during October highlights the depth, breadth and liquidity of the global exchange network we have built over the last two decades and the unique role that benchmarks such as Brent and Euribor play in underpinning the management of risk across markets," said Trabue Bland, SVP of Futures Markets at ICE. "Against a backdrop of risk and uncertainty across multiple fronts geographically, customers are utilizing the combination of the liquidity and precision of our global benchmarks and related contracts to manage risk."
/jlne.ws/4f7SCgm
Intercontinental Exchange Reports October 2024 Statistics
Intercontinental Exchange
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today reported October 2024 trading volume and related revenue statistics, which can be viewed on the company's investor relations website at https://ir.theice.com/ir-resources/supplemental-information in the Monthly Statistics Tracking spreadsheet. October highlights include: Total average daily volume (ADV) up 40% y/y; open interest (OI) up 20% y/y, including record futures OI of 50.1M lots on October 25 Record Energy ADV up 21% y/y; OI up 21% y/y Total Oil ADV up 22% y/y; including record options of 435k lots; OI up 20% y/y, including record OI of 15.8M lots on October 25 Brent ADV up 16% y/y, including record options of 364k lots; OI up 16% y/y, including record options OI of 4.1M lots on October 25 WTI ADV up 20% y/y; OI up 20% y/y Gasoil ADV up 37% y/y; OI up 64% y/y, including record OI of 1.3M lots on October 30 Other Crude & Refined products ADV up 23% y/y; OI up 17% y/y
/jlne.ws/48COXEX
Farmer sentiment in October rebounded ahead of the U.S. election
CME Group
Farmer sentiment saw an unexpected surge in October ahead of the upcoming U.S. election, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index rose to 115, marking a 27-point increase from September. This boost in sentiment was primarily driven by a rise in producers' confidence in the future, with the Future Expectations Index jumping 30 points to 124. While the Current Conditions Index also improved, reaching 95, it still reflected farmers' concerns that economic conditions this year are worse than last year and weaker than the barometer's base period of 2015-16 during the early days of a multiyear downturn in the U.S. farm economy. Despite current challenges, the October survey indicated some optimism among producers that economic conditions may strengthen, avoiding an extended downturn in the farm economy. This month's survey was conducted from Oct. 14-18, 2024.
/jlne.ws/3NTLHeD
| | | | | | Regulation & Enforcement | | | Hedge Fund Basis Trade Faces Scrutiny as Regulators Mull Probe; Shadow lenders now hold about half of all financial assets; Watchdogs have spent years trying to assess non-bank risks
Laura Noonan - Bloomberg
Hedge funds' record bet on US Treasuries is facing fresh scrutiny as the world's most powerful financial watchdog mulls a deep dive into the money-spinning trade. After running into difficulties with a mammoth project launched last year to gather data on the sprawling shadow banking system, the Financial Stability Board is now discussing a pivot to focus on a handful of priority areas, including the so-called basis trades, three people with knowledge of the matter said. The potential probe comes as wagers on one of the trades, which sees some of the world's biggest hedge funds try to profit from the tiny price gaps between Treasuries and derivatives known as futures, hit $1.15 trillion recently.
/jlne.ws/3V1qZxJ
ISDA Wins Regulation Asia's Industry Association of the Year and Best Regulatory Reporting Solution Awards
Regulation Asia
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) has been named Industry Association of the Year for the second year running by Regulation Asia at its seventh annual Awards for Excellence. The association also won Best Regulatory Reporting Solution for its Digital Regulatory Reporting (DRR) initiative. The Industry Association of the Year award recognizes trade groups that have shown outstanding leadership in supporting regulatory reform, addressing compliance challenges and promoting financial stability, including through the development of industry standards and best practices.
/jlne.ws/48AxrB4
| | | | | | Technology | | | Abel Noser Solutions, a Trading Technologies company, wins Best Buy-Side TCA Tool for 2024 in WatersTechnology's Buy-Side Technology Awards
Trading Technologies International, Inc.
Trading Technologies International, Inc. (TT), a global capital markets technology platform provider, today announced that Abel Noser Solutions, a TT company, won the award for Best Buy-Side TCA (Transaction Cost Analysis) Tool in the Buy-Side Technology Awards 2024. The industry-leading provider of TCA for investment managers, brokers, asset owners and consultants offers comprehensive pre-trade, real-time and post-trade TCA products and services for global equities, foreign exchange (FX), futures, fixed income and options. Hosted by WatersTechnology, the awards recognize the leading technologies and third-party vendors in their areas of expertise, focusing on market-leading technologies developed specifically for use by buy-side firms, designed to allow them to operate more efficiently, more transparently and more judiciously.
/jlne.ws/3NRdcFE
Bitpanda deploying Eventus' Validus platform to meet trade surveillance needs; Implementation to help firm meet EU Markets in Crypto Asset Regulation (MiCA) requirements
Eventus
Eventus, a leading provider of comprehensive, at-scale trade surveillance and financial risk solutions, and Bitpanda, Europe's leading cryptocurrency platform, announced today that Bitpanda will deploy Eventus' Validus platform to meet its trade surveillance needs and legal obligations. Founded in Vienna in 2014, Bitpanda has offices and hubs across the region, including Vienna, Barcelona, Berlin, Krakow and Bucharest. Following a rigorous review of trade surveillance solution providers, Bitpanda selected Eventus to help the firm leverage automation to detect and prevent market abuse, manipulation and insider trading.
/jlne.ws/48CJXjt
Rival Systems Wins "Best Buy-Side OMS" at WatersTechnology's 2024 Buy-Side Technology Awards
Rival Systems via PR Newswire
We are proud to announce that Rival One has been awarded "Best Buy-Side Order Management System (OMS)" for the 2024 Buy-Side Technology Awards by WatersTechnology. This recognition highlights Rival One's innovative approach to simplifying the complex trading landscape and enhancing efficiency for active traders and financial firms globally. Rival One streamlines trading by consolidating various functionalities, traditionally spread across multiple systems, into a single, cloud-based solution. Designed with direct feedback from the trading community, Rival One addresses critical buy-side trading challenges through seamless connectivity across asset classes-including equities, futures, and options-on an intuitive, ultra-low latency platform.
/jlne.ws/3UEsCAZ
| | | | | | Strategy | | | SPY and Beyond: How Sector ETFs Can Enhance Your Investment Strategy
Kai Zeng - tastylive
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), can help reduce the risk tied to investing in individual stocks by holding a collection of assets.
/jlne.ws/3UDfwnN
Wall Street's 'Fear Gauge' Spiked Before Election Day. It Could Be a Buying Opportunity.
Paul R. La Monica - Barron's
Investors are on edge as Americans head to the polls. A popular barometer for market volatility that is often dubbed Wall Street's "fear gauge" was at a higher than usual level just before Election Day, a sign of just how anxious traders are regarding the outcome of a presidential race that appears too close to call.
/jlne.ws/4fjNeXB
This election result could pour fuel on stock-market rally - but watch out for this wild card; Keep an eye on 10-year Treasury yield, strategist says
William Watts - MarketWatch
Of the three most likely outcomes of the U.S. presidential election, two of them would likely point to further gains for the stock market, a closely followed strategist said Tuesday. But there's a major wildcard to keep in mind.
"Bottom line, the Republican sweep is likely the most positive outcome for stocks into year-end, but in that scenario, we would need to brace for an uptick in volatility in 2025 as deficits and debt become a much larger portion of the conversation," said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Tuesday note.
/jlne.ws/3Cclvtf
| | | | | | | | | JLN Options is sponsored by: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
|
| | | |
| | | | John Lothian News (JLN) is the news division of John J. Lothian & Company, Inc. (JJLCO). The online media and financial services firm is staffed by derivatives industry, journalism and technology professionals. | | | | | | | John Lothian News Editorial Staff: | | | John Lothian
Publisher | | | Sarah Rudolph
Editor-in-Chief
| | | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
| | | Asma Awass
Intern |
|
|
Disclaimer: All John Lothian Newsletters, JohnLothianNews.com, MarketsWiki.com and MarketsReformWiki.com are products of John Lothian News, a division of John J. Lothian & Company, Inc. The opinions expressed in all John J. Lothian & Company, Inc. publications are strictly those of their respective editors. They are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Security futures are not suitable for all customers. Futures and options trading involve risk. Past results are no indication of future performance. Nothing on any John J. Lothian & Company site should be considered an endorsement by any sponsor of any website or newsletter content.
© 2023 John J. Lothian & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. |
|
|
