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| Friday, November 17, 2023 |
| "Please, Football Gods, just let us have one star-studded Thursday Night Football matchup." |
| And that was then the final finger on the monkey's paw curled. |
| The stars were out Thursday night in Baltimore, and then before halftime, two of the biggest stars on the Ravens and Bengals were, well, out. Mark Andrews left after just two catches with an ankle injury, while Joe Burrow exited in the second quarter with a wrist injury, and it looks like both could be significant injuries. |
| In lieu of our typical Winners and Losers-centric recap of Thursday Night Football, today's newsletter is going to focus first on the fallout from those two injuries. Plus, we've got our typical updates on all the other injuries you need to know about heading into the weekend, plus my thoughts on Sunday's main DFS slate: |
| Week 11 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WRDave Richard's Week 11 Lineup DecisionsHeath Cummings' full Week 11 projections Week 11 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TEJamey, Dave, Heath's RankingsMy Week 11 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TECheat Sheets: PPR | Non-PPR |
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| Andrews, Burrow injury fallout |
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| Bengals' outlook if Joe Burrow has to miss time |
| When Burrow was clearly less than 100% with his calf injury, the Bengals never turned to Jake Browning, and Thursday night gave us a good sense of why that was. Browning simply looked overwhelmed, fading from pressure and basically only throwing up prayers his receivers couldn't answer more often than not. |
| As of Thursday night, we don't have any details on Burrow's injury beyond that he suffered a sprained wrist, and it was pretty concerning to see him try to throw on the sideline only to crumple in a heap in pain after barely bringing the ball up above his shoulder. What we can say about Burrow at this point is if he's at all physically able to play, he's probably going to. He just may not be able to after Thursday. At least for a little while. |
| And, yeah, it's obviously a significant downgrade across the board for the entire Bengals offense. Ja'Marr Chase ended up salvaging his Fantasy game with a garbage time touchdown, but he had just two catches for 12 yards to go along with the score on seven targets. He nearly made a couple of highlight-reel catches, but he also needed highlight-reel catches just to have a chance at a good game, something we've seen from the likes of Garrett Wilson with Zach Wilson as his QB. |
| That's probably the range I would throw Chase in if Burrow has to miss time. Wilson's been a fringe WR1, and that's right around where I have him ranked, because he makes just enough superhero-type plays to overcome the poor QB play. I would expect the same from Chase if he has to play with Browning. |
| Tee Higgins would be more like a WR3 once he returns from his hamstring injury, while Joe Mixon would probably be in the Saquon Barkley range of the rankings for me, where you're probably starting him because of the volume he'll get, but his chances of a touchdown in any given week are going to be pretty low, and efficiency could be an issue. He'll be more like a low-end RB2 if Burrow is out. |
| Like I said, it's a downgrade across the board. Let's just hope the extra time off before Week 12 helps Burrow get right. The last thing we need is another offense wrecked by QB injuries. |
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| Fallout from Mark Andrews' ankle injury |
| Andrews is the latest player to fall victim to the so-called hip-drop tackle, as his ankles got caught up under him while a defender was bringing him down last night. It looked like a bad injury at the time, and coach John Harbaugh confirmed as much after the game, saying in his press conference that the injury is believed to be a season-ender. |
| Andrews hasn't been quite as dominant as his best seasons this year, but he's still a huge part of the Ravens offense, and at least Thursday, there was no obvious replacement who stepped up for him. In 2022, Isaiah Likely had 9.4 and 18.3 PPR points in the two games Andrews missed, but he had just one catch in Week 1 with Andrews out and was largely a non-factor Thursday, finishing without a catch on two targets. He now has one or fewer catches in three of five games with Andrews playing 15% of the snaps or less over the past two seasons. |
| Likely just isn't the plug-and-play replacement for Andrews we hoped he would be when he broke out last preseason, and it looks especially true with the Ravens' additions at wide receiver this season. I'll probably still rank him as a TE2 if Andrews is out in Week 12 against the Chargers, but he's definitely not a must-start option. |
| Not that those are easy to find at TE, especially if you missed out on Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride. If I'm looking for an Andrews replacement, I'm trying to add Pat Freiermuth (47% rostered), because it looks like he's coming off IR this week and certainly has some upside. Otherwise, Michael Mayer is an interesting roll of the dice, but no better a bet than Likely, and I think I'd just take my chances with Likely in the better offense. |
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| Week 11 injury updates |
| Quarterback |
| The Bears announced earlier in the week that Justin Fields (thumb) will be making his return this week, and he's practiced without limitations to back it up. He's a top-10 QB for me this week. |
| Matthew Stafford (thumb) has practiced without limitations all week and will make his return after missing one week (plus the bye) with his injury. I'm not starting him outside of 2QB leagues, but it does make it easier to trust Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp as high-end WR2 this week. |
| Running back |
| De'Von Achane (knee) has been limited in practice this week, but Bleacher Report NFL insider Jordan Schultz did report Thursday that Achane is expected to make his return this week against the Raiders . I'm ranking Achane inside of my top 20, so while he's not an absolute must-start option, you're probably going with him if he's healthy. The Dolphins should be able to do just about whatever they want against the Raiders, and that should involve some high-value touches among the dozen or so I would expect for Achane. |
| Antonio Gibson (toe) has yet to practice this week as of Thursday, so this could really be setting up well for Brian Robinson in a terrific matchup against the Giants. Robinson might end up being a top-15 back if Gibson is out, and Chris Rodriguez could be in play for deeper leagues if you're desperate. |
| Khalil Herbert (ankle/shin) was upgraded to a full participation in practice Thursday, which seems to bode well for his chances of coming back from IR this week ... except he also practiced in full each day before ultimately not being activated last week, so there's no certainty here. However, with D'Onta Foreman also limited by an ankle injury, I'm expecting Herbert to play this week, and he's an RB2/3 if Foreman is out and an RB3/4 if Foreman plays. If all three backs are healthy and active against the Lions, I'm trying to avoid this backfield. |
| Dameon Pierce (ankle) looks like he's going to miss his third consecutive game, as he didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday this week. Devin Singletary was the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after his 150-yard effort against the Bengals, and would be a rock-solid RB2 in a great matchup against the Cardinals this week. |
| Alexander Mattison (concussion) progressed to a limited practice Thursday, a sign that he has a pretty good chance of playing in Week 11 against the Broncos. That would be a blow for Ty Chandler's appeal, though he should still have a role against a pretty bad Broncos rush defense. Mattison would be a high-end RB3 if he plays, while Chandler would probably come in around RB40 for me if Mattison plays; if Mattison is out, Chandler is a top-20 RB. |
| Wide receiver |
| Justin Jefferson (hamstring) is still very much up in the air for Week 11. He's remained limited at practice, and I'd guess we won't see him play until he gets through at least one full practice. That may come Friday, but as of right now, I'm not projecting Jefferson to play. K.J. Osborn (concussion) did practice in full both Wednesday and Thursday and belongs in the WR4 range of the rankings if he avoids a setback. |
| Keenan Allen (shoulder) was upgraded to a limited participation in practice Thursday and told reporters he plans to play. It's a little scary, given the injury, but Allen has to be viewed as a must-start WR at this point even at less than 100%. The Chargers just don't have much else besides him. |
| Garrett Wilson (elbow) was limited both Wednesday and Thursday during practice and it looks like he's probably going to play. I honestly haven't seen much discussion of the injury one way or the other, but nobody seems too concerned about his chances of playing, as far as I can tell. Wilson is a fringe WR1 based on volume (and his own individual brilliance), Zach Wilson be damned. |
| Diontae Johnson (thumb) was upgraded to a full practice Thursday, so it looks like Wednesday's absence was a false alarm. His usage last week was pretty discouraging, but I'm still ranking Johnson as a WR2 in PPR. |
| Tyler Lockett (hamstring) hasn't practiced yet this week, and while he's played through the injury for a while now, this is the first time he's missed consecutive days of practice since Week 8. He did play despite missing Wednesday and Thursday that week, and he could do the same this time around, but Lockett has been less than 100% for much of the season in a way that has obviously impacted his performance. That being said, it's hard to get away from him if he is able to play with two games of at least 81 yards and a touchdown in his past three. |
| Noah Brown (knee) hasn't practiced yet this week, so it looks like one of the breakout starts of the past few weeks may not be available for Sunday's game against the Cardinals. Nico Collins (calf) has been able to practice on a limited basis, so he could step into that role as C.J. Stroud's top downfield target -- and he would carry significant upside if he is cleared to play. Collins and Tank Dell would both be in the WR2 discussion for Sunday's game if Brown is out; if Brown and Collins both play, they would be WR3 options, with Dell ranked highest of the group. |
| Jerry Jeudy (hip) popped up on the practice report Thursday with a limited tag, and the mid-week "limited" tag is always tough to figure out. It could just mean Jeudy was limited, but it could also mean he left practice early with the injury, which is much more concerning. At this point, Jeudy is a pretty bad Fantasy start, so I hope you have a better option even if he's able to play. |
| Zay Jones (knee) has been limited each day this week of practice, so his status is very much up in the air -- and it's not clear as of Thursday how his arrest earlier in the week for a misdemeanor domestic battery charge might impact his availability even if he is cleared to play. |
| Treylon Burks (concussion) continues to miss practice and looks like a long shot to play this week against the Jaguars. |
| Tight end |
| Dallas Goedert (forearm) didn't practice Thursday and seems all but certain to miss Monday's game against the Chiefs. The Eagles haven't placed Goedert on IR yet and we really haven't heard many details since initial reporting a few weeks ago indicated he was likely to require surgery, so I'm not sure why he hasn't gone on IR at this point. |
| Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) got a full practice in Thursday, so it sure looks like he's going to come back from the IR this week. He's not a must-start TE, but he has the potential to join Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride as the young guy in the waiver-wire-to-starter pipeline. If you don't have a good TE, consider stashing him. |
| Gerald Everett (chest) has missed both days of practice this week, so it looks like he might not play against the Packers Sunday. Donald Parham (hip) was upgraded to limited, and could be worth streaming if Everett is out and you're desperate. |
| Hayden Hurst (concussion) has yet to practice this week and looks like he'll miss this week's game against the Cowboys. Tommy Tremble should only be used if you are absolutely desperate at TE -- I'd prefer Freiermuth or Parham. |
| Top DFS picks |
| Before you read my rankings, make sure you head over to SportsLine, where Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs have their rankings and top plays available to peruse at your leisure. They'll help you out quite a bit. |
| Based on my projections and analysis for Week 11, here are my top stack targets and my favorite plays at each position, with an eye on tournament plays: |
| Top Stacks |
| Lions @DET Dolphins vs. LV49ers vs. TB |
| The problem with all three of these is the potential for blowouts that limit the ability of their key offensive players to rack up numbers late in the game. Of course, the nice thing with all three is, they've got very good running backs who should be involved in the passing game and have late-game potential for garbage time production. |
| Quarterback |
| DraftKings |
| Sam Howell vs. NYG $6300Jared Goff vs. CHI $6600 Brock Purdy vs. TB $5800 |
| Howell is another QB with garbage time risk against the woeful Giants, but I'm less concerned about him than some others just because the Commanders have been so pass-heavy – they are third in pass rate over expected this season and are probably less likely to live up a lofty favorite status than the Dolphins, 49ers, and Lions, among others. Now, it's worth noting, Howell passed for 249 yards without a touchdown the last time he faced the Giants, so he's no sure thing. But he's playing terrific ball since, and I think we'll see a much better showing this time around. |
| FanDuel |
| Sam Howell vs. NYG $7700Jared Goff vs. CHI $7900Justin Fields @DET $7400 |
| Fields is coming back from his four-game absence, and who knows how he'll fare coming off that thumb injury. But the upside here is massive against a Lions defense he absolutely destroyed last season, rushing for 279 yards and a touchdown across two games. If he picked up where he left off before the injury – four passing touchdowns in each of his last two games before Week 6 – he could be a tournament winner. |
| Running back |
| DraftKings |
| Josh Jacobs @MIA $6800James Conner @HOU $5700 Rachaad White @SF $6000Jahmyr Gibbs vs. CHI $7000 Christian McCaffrey vs. TB $9300 |
| White's an interesting one against a very good 49ers defense, though it's worth noting that they're 10th against RBs in Fantasy scoring this season, so it hasn't been as impenetrable as you might think. White probably won't find a ton of room for success running the ball, but dumping it off to him might be one of the few ways the Bucs can neutralize the 49ers pass rush. White's volume in both facets of the game make him a viable play every week, especially at a relatively low price. |
| FanDuel |
| Josh Jacobs @MIA $7300Rachaad White @SF $6600Christian McCaffrey vs. TB $10000James Conner @HOU $6800Breece Hall @BUF $7100 |
| The hope with Jacobs is that the Raiders lean on him heavily early in an attempt to control the ball and keep the Dolphins from running away with it, and then they lean on him heavily in the passing game when they inevitably fall behind. The Dolphins have been decent against running backs, but hardly dominant, so hopefully this sets up as a good situation for Jacobs no matter the game script. |
| Wide receiver |
| DraftKings |
| Garrett Wilson @BUF $6400Tyreek Hill vs. LV $9300Rondale Moore @HOU $3300 Terry McLaurin vs. NYG $5800Christian Kirk vs. TEN $6000 |
| Moore didn't have a great game in Kyler Murray's season debut, catching five passes for 43 yards, but there was still a lot to like about how he was used. He was targeted on 25% of Murray's passes, and while he didn't have a carry for the first time since Week 4, he still lined up in the backfield five times, an interesting wrinkle that has led to some big plays for Moore. If Murray is going to lean on him and they're going to still use him as an RB alternative, there could be some big games coming. |
| FanDuel |
| Garrett Wilson @BUF $7000Stefon Diggs vs. NYJ $8600Jaylen Waddle vs. LV $7100 CeeDee Lamb @CAR $9200Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. CHI $8900 |
| Given his production of late, Lamb is an absolute steal at this kind of price – he has 11 or more catches and at least 151 yards in each of his last three games, with four total touchdowns in that span. The Cowboys have won two of those three games by at least three touchdowns, too, so there's still room for him to dominate even in blowouts. There's no guarantee the Cowboys will continue to throw as much as they have, but Lamb looks like he has as much upside as anyone right now. |
| Tight end |
| DraftKings |
| Trey McBride @HOU $4400Evan Engram vs. TEN $4300Dalton Kincaid vs. NYJ $4900 |
| McBride feels like the free spot on the bingo board this week, as he's the seventh-most expensive TE on DraftKings and my third-best projected option – and he's not far behind Sam LaPorta in my projections, despite being $1400 cheaper. It's too early to say he needs to be priced like an elite option at the position, but he's shown that upside in two of the past three games, and will be in pretty much every lineup I put together ... |
| FanDuel |
| Dalton Kincaid vs. NYJ $5800Trey McBride @HOU $5900Evan Engram vs. TEN $5700 |
| ... except on FanDuel, where Kincaid is the free space. Kincaid is my No. 1 ranked right end on the slate, and he's the No. 6 TE in FD pricing. The Jets are a good offense, but Kincaid's going to be Josh Allen 's go-to short-area option like he has been for a while, and that's led to at least 13 half-PPR points in four straight games. I think he should be at least $1000 more expensive. |
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