| July 05, 2024 | "Irreverent, but never irrelevant" | | | | John Lothian
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Hits & Takes
John Lothian & JLN Staff
The day after the USA celebrated its independence from Great Britain, the United Kingdom elected new leadership in a landslide election for the Labour party. Thus ended the 14-year run in power of the Tories, with the longest serving prime minister during that time being David Cameron, who served for six years. Theresa May and Boris Johnson served three years apiece. Liz Truss's forgettable tenure, except for the bond market, was for 49 days. Rishi Sunak has served since 2022 as he exits Number 10 Downing Street.
The BBC reported that the SNP, or Scottish National Party, lost 38 of the 48 seats it held of the 57 in Scotland, with one not declared. This is also the worst showing of the SNP since 2010.
Bloomberg reported that the "UK's New Parliament Most Diverse Ever - But Not at the Top," The story said, "More than 13% of the new parliament come from an ethnic minority background, according to an analysis by the British Future think tank, an increase from 10% in 2019."
The most important thing for Labour to show beyond its new policy directions will be competence, something we have seen lacking in the Tories and SNP leadership, which undermined their ability to continue in power.
Today is a given day at JLN, which means the JLN team puts out this newsletter and then is given the rest of the day off. There will be no JLN Options.
Have a great day and weekend and stay safe and treat people the same way you want to be treated: with respect, equality and justice.~JJL
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Our most read stories from our previous edition of JLN Options were:
- David Downey's Important Call: ForecastEx to Revolutionize Event Contracts with CFTC Green Light from John Lothian News.
- Alan Knuckman Reflects on His Journey from Michigan to Chicago's Trading Floors from John Lothian News.
- Gen Z Is Taking Too Much Risk in the Markets from Bloomberg. ~JB
Subscribe to the JLN Options Newsletter HERE (it's free).
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Markets Crave Stability from Starmer After Years of Tory Crises
Greg Ritchie and Sagarika Jaisinghani - Bloomberg
After a historic election night for British politics, there was one word that investors in the City of London kept using to characterize their hope for the next era of UK markets: stability. Money managers said they expect the Labour Party under Keir Starmer will usher in calmer and more moderate policy, turning the page on years of turmoil marked by the gilt crisis, Brexit and the Scottish referendum. Asset prices reflected that mood on Friday, although with modest enthusiasm given the election result had long been expected.
/jlne.ws/4cQ92bA
***** I don't know who the "markets" are, but I know that traders love volatility.~JJL
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Why this Wall Street trailblazer believes furniture can unite America; Lulu C. Wang and her husband funded six galleries at the Metropolitan Museum of Art to give back to the country that paved the way for their American Dream.
Chloe Melas - NBC News
When Lulu C. Wang immigrated to the U.S. from Shanghai with her family in 1948, she knew only one word of English. "I remember going to school for the first day ... walking in and thinking, 'Oh, how am I going to understand what these people are saying?' And one little girl came up to me and she said something, and I had no idea. I knew one word, 'What?' So I said 'What?' And then she repeated it two or three times and I said 'What?' two or three times. ... I found out later on she was asking me, 'Where's the wastepaper basket?' It was a good beginning, and I've come to learn to love the English language," Wang told MSNBC in a recent interview. Wang was just 4 years old when her family was forced to call America their new home amid the Chinese communist revolution.
/jlne.ws/3zs5gXD
****** The true "seat" of power comes from furniture.~JJL
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Wednesday's Top Three
Our top clicked item on Wednesday was the web page for the 10th Annual NIBA/DePaul University Summer Symposium, titled "AI Evolution," which will take place on July 11 in Chicago, IL, from 1:45 to 5:00 pm CDT. Second was Citadel buys Goldman alum's company to trade power in Japan, from Crain's Chicago Business. Third was Rudy Giuliani Disbarred by New York Court, from The Wall Street Journal.
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| Lead Stories | Starmer vows 'government of service' for national renewal as he takes power after Labour landslide
Brian Melley and Jill Lawless - Associated Press
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he would lead a "government of service" on a mission of national renewal in his first official remarks Friday after his Labour Party swept to power in a landslide victory after more than a decade in opposition. Starmer acknowledged in his first speech outside 10 Downing St. that many people are disillusioned and cynical about politics, but said his government would try to restore faith in government. "My government will make you believe again," Starmer said as supporters cheered him on outside 10 Downing St.
/jlne.ws/3W8BSi6
How the investment world is trying to navigate geopolitics; An industry that has been hoovering up mathematicians to devise new trading strategies is now leaning on political scientists for guidance
Nicholas Megaw, Madison Darbyshire and James Fontanella-Khan - Financial Times
Attended by prominent figures such as tech billionaire Michael Dell, Blackstone chief Stephen Schwarzman and Yasir Al-Rumayyan, the head of Saudi Arabia's $925bn Public Investment Fund, the FII Priority conference in Miami in February was one of the most high-profile business events in the US this year. The first morning audience listened to former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo who warned the investors that it had become "impossible to separate geopolitical risk from capital allocation".
/jlne.ws/3XPFl6g
Making Money on the Election Trade Is Harder Than Ever; The obvious lesson: Trades based on voting results are a gamble on unreliable polling
James Mackintosh - The Wall Street Journal
Elections are getting trickier for investors. Once all you had to think about was who would win, a hard enough job when polls are unreliable. Now you need to decide whether there will be a surprise landslide-and if there is, whether that will be good or bad for markets. Investors in India and Mexico, and to an extent Monday in France and the U.S., have seen big swings as a result of such bets-and some big losses when they went wrong. Investors in India and Mexico, and to an extent Monday in France and the U.S., have seen big swings as a result of such bets-and some big losses when they went wrong.
/jlne.ws/3LcdjKU
Ex-directors allege fraud at Tether-backed crypto group Northern Data; Sacked 'whistleblowers' launch California court action against Europe's biggest bitcoin-miner-turned-AI-datacentre-builder
Bryce Elder - Financial Times
Two former executives of Northern Data, a German-listed crypto and AI infrastructure company backed by Tether, say they were sacked after raising concerns about alleged fraud they claim was being perpetrated by its chief executive and chief operating officer. In a complaint filed last month at the California Central District court, Joshua Porter and Gulsen Kama allege that Northern Data was "falsely misrepresenting the strength of its financial condition to investors, regulators and business partners", and "was knowingly committing tax evasion to the tune of potentially tens of millions of dollars."
/jlne.ws/3XKYUga
UK's Election Is a Rare Win Against Anti-Climate Campaigns; Keir Starmer's Labour Party promoted a green agenda - but now faces an uphill struggle to implement it.
Olivia Rudgard - Bloomberg
As Britain's center-left Labour party sweeps into power this morning, winning 411 of the 650 seats at the last count, it's worth remembering what is happening among its allies. In neighboring France, the far-right National Rally, which has attacked climate policy as part of its pitch to voters, is hoping to build on early successes during the final election round for the country's parliament this Sunday. In the United States, Republican President Donald Trump, who has denied climate science, is ahead in the polls. Across Europe, an anti-green backlash has cowed climate ambition.
/jlne.ws/3VQu5E3
Sam Bankman-Fried's Campaign Spending Spree Was a Family Affair; The fallen crypto tycoon's brother and mother directed donations to politicians, while his father weighed in with tax advice
Alexander Osipovich - The Wall Street Journal
Two of Sam Bankman-Fried's former lieutenants face the prospect of prison time over their role in his campaign-spending operation. But other insiders from the FTX founder's orbit were closely involved with his political-donation binge, including members of his family, according to previously unreported emails seen by The Wall Street Journal. Prosecutors say Bankman-Fried used funds stolen from FTX customers for more than $100 million in political contributions as part of a wide-ranging influence scheme ahead of the 2022 election. Two former FTX executives, Ryan Salame and Nishad Singh, have pleaded guilty to taking part in an illegal straw-donor scheme to mask the source of their contributions. Salame steered money to Republicans so the FTX chief executive wouldn't be associated with the contributions, while Singh backed liberal candidates, prosecutors say.
/jlne.ws/3VPqLJv
UK's New Parliament Most Diverse Ever - But Not at the Top; Labour's diverse MPs not reflected in its shadow cabinet; Conservative Party elevated minority MPs to positions of power
Siraj Datoo - Bloomberg
British voters elected the largest ever number of ethnic minority MPs to the House of Commons on Thursday, a reflection of more minorities becoming involved in politics as well as political parties seeking to reflect the people they represent. More than 13% of the new parliament come from an ethnic minority background, according to an analysis by the British Future think tank, an increase from 10% in 2019. More broadly, 18% of the British population belongs to a non-White ethnic group, according to 2021 census data.
/jlne.ws/45UFQOH
The BlackRock private data deal that minted a UK billionaire; Sale of Preqin for £2.5bn has catapulted founder Mark O'Hare into ranks of Britain's wealthiest people
Ivan Levingston, Nikou Asgari and Robert Smith and Brooke Masters - Financial Times
In 2002 Mark O'Hare filed a public information request with the Massachusetts Pension Reserves Investment Management Board, seeking information on the performance of its private equity investments. The state retirement fund initially fought the British entrepreneur's move, arguing the data was a trade secret, but a state official sided with O'Hare, helping him overcome an early hurdle in his plan to build a business selling prized information about the secretive buyout sector.
/jlne.ws/4bBn0x0
Wall Street Bids Adieu to Its Biggest Bear; JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic had a knack for making aggressive calls, but now the analyst is out after missing a roaring bull market
Jack Pitcher - The Wall Street Journal
Marko Kolanovic found himself in the loneliest place on Wall Street. A robust stock-market rally that started early in 2023 caught many investors by surprise. But as other big-bank analysts relented one by one, adjusting their forecasts higher, Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chase's top market strategist, doubled down on his bearish outlook. Stocks kept rallying, with major indexes hitting new highs again this week. On Wednesday, the man dubbed "Gandalf" and "Half-Man, Half-God" by the financial press over the years for his prowess at predicting market moves, was out of a job at JPMorgan.
/jlne.ws/4601K32
Bird Flu Is Latest Wild Card for Dairy Farmers; Pressure is growing for the dairy industry to address the virus's spread as farmers confront thin margins and rising costs
Victor Stefanescu - The Wall Street Journal
Milking cows has been a tough business in the past decade, with volatile prices, costs rising and workers hard to find. Now America's dairy farmers face a new problem: bird flu. Avian influenza has hit dairy farms in at least 12 states after being confirmed in March to have jumped to cattle. The malady, which can curb cows' milk production and upend dairy farms' operations, is the latest curveball for an industry that has grappled with low profit margins, drought and shifting consumer tastes. "Dairy farmers are so stressed to begin with," said Jason Schmidt, a fifth-generation dairy farmer with 75 cows near Newton, Kan. The threat of bird flu "makes it even harder," he said.
/jlne.ws/3Ld6l8n
Fireside Friday with... Citi's Chris Gooch; The TRADE sits down with Chris Gooch, head of ETF/index sales and business development, EMEA at Citi, to discuss the evolution of ETFs, disparities in volumes in the US versus the UK and EU, and lessons that can be learnt from across the pond.
Wesley Bray - The Trade
What role would you say active ETFs are playing in the progression of the asset class? Active is a game changer and it's going to broaden the audience yet again for the product set. It's going to disrupt the traditional mutual fund market and I truly believe it's going to position ETFs as the wrapper of choice for managers. What's particularly notable is the willingness of big asset managers to launch their latest active strategies in an ETF wrapper. For me that means that every asset manager is going to need to have a clear strategy of how they're going to respond.
/jlne.ws/45SSNbw
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| Ukraine Invasion | | News about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and its military, economic, political and humanitarian impact | Ukraine's army retreats from positions as Russia gets closer to seizing strategically important town
Hanna Arhirova - Associated Press
Ukraine's army has retreated from a neighborhood in the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, a strategically important town in the eastern Donetsk region that has been reduced to rubble under a monthslong Russian assault, a military spokesperson said Thursday. Chasiv Yar is a short distance west of Bakhmut, which was captured by Russia last year after a bitter 10-month battle. For months, Russian forces have focused on capturing Chasiv Yar, a town which occupies an elevated location. Its fall would put nearby cities in jeopardy, compromise critical Ukrainian supply routes and bring Russia closer to its stated aim of seizing the entire Donetsk region.
/jlne.ws/4eQwR4Y
Ukraine calls them meat assaults: Russia's brutal plan to take ground
Gordon Corera - BBC
On the frontlines, Ukrainian soldiers use a graphic term to describe the Russian tactics they face daily. They call them "meat assaults": waves of Russian soldiers coming at their defensive positions, sometimes nearly a dozen times in a day. Lt Col Anton Bayev of the Khartia Brigade of Ukraine's National Guard says wave after wave can arrive in just a few hours at frontlines positions north of Kharkiv.
/jlne.ws/3RXuPGl
Ukraine is killing Russian missiles with hand-me-down air-defense weapons the US retired decades ago
Jake Epstein - Business Insider
The Ukrainians are using an American-made air-defense system that the US retired from service more than two decades ago to successfully shoot down Russian cruise missiles. The MIM-23 HAWK is a medium-range surface-to-air system that was first fielded in the 1960s and has long been considered obsolete, with militaries favoring more-portable systems. But the hand-me-down weapons have found new life in Ukraine, proving they're still useful tools after all these years.
/jlne.ws/3XPFIOc
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| Israel/Hamas Conflict | | News about the recent (October, 2023) conflict between Israel and Hamas | Hezbollah launches big attack on Israel, sonic booms rattle Beirut
Laila Bassam and Maayan Lubell - Reuters
Lebanon's Hezbollah launched a big rocket and drone attack at Israel on Thursday and threatened to hit new targets in retaliation for the killing of a top commander, in the latest surge of violence in the steadily worsening conflict across the border. Sparked by the Gaza war, the conflict between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel has been gradually intensifying for months, raising fears of a full-scale war, which both sides have indicated they want to avoid and diplomats are working to prevent.
/jlne.ws/3XS9cuW
US sees 'significant opening' for Israel-Hamas hostage deal; Administration official hails 'breakthrough' after Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Thursday
Andrew England, Lauren Fedor and James Shotter - Financial Times
The US believes there is a "significant opening" to finalise a deal between Israel and Hamas to halt the nine-month war in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages held in the strip, according to a senior administration official. Speaking after US President Joe Biden held a 30-minute phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday, the official said "we have had a breakthrough on a critical impasse".
/jlne.ws/4cLSSQC
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| Exchanges, OTC & Clearing | | Top news from exchanges, clearing, settlement and trade execution facilities | BME launches SpainAtMid, a dark order book with zero-latency dark-to-lit sweep order functionality; This new functionality will allow trading participants to seek contra liquidity in larger size, whilst minimising the price impact of resting orders or seeking price improvement on aggressive orders.
BME-X
Starting in December, BME will incorporate a new functionality to its Smart platform called SpainAtMid, a non-displayed pool which will allow the trading of equities at the BBO mid-point of BME's central limit order book (CLOB). This functionality will be available during the continuous trading phase and support the execution of resting, immediate and sweep orders.
/jlne.ws/3L8Kz5L
EEX and IncubEx to expand European environmental markets with new GO Futures
European Energy Exchange
The European Energy Exchange (EEX), a leading energy and commodity exchange and IncubEx, a specialist environmental commodity and climate risk product development firm, announced today the launch of a new suite of Guarantees of Origin (GO) futures contracts on 2 September 2024. EEX will list four new GO contracts: EEX European Renewable Power GO Future (any technology GOs: Hydro/Wind/Solar/Biomass); EEX European Hydro GO Future; EEX European Wind GO Future; EEX European Solar GO Future. GOs are a key component of the energy transition as they provide transparent tracking of origins of renewable energy within the EU and help facilitate investment into renewable energy projects. The verified certificates, each representing 1 MWh from renewable energy sources, can be traded and used across Europe. The new standardised EEX futures contracts will allow market participants to hedge these markets.
/jlne.ws/3XS0WLt
CME Group International Average Daily Volume Reached Quarterly Record of 7.8 Million Contracts in Q2 2024
CME Group
Record Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) ADV of 5.8M, up 28% in Q2 2024
Asia Pacific (APAC) ADV of 1.7M, up 9%; Latin America (LatAm) ADV of 182K, up 8% in Q2 2024. CME Group, the world's leading derivatives marketplace, today announced that its quarterly international average daily volume (ADV) reached a record 7.8 million contracts in Q2 2024, up 23% year on year. Reflecting all trading reported outside the United States, the record volume was driven by growth across all asset classes, with the highest trading volumes coming from interest rate and equity products. Commodities saw strong growth, with metals up 50%, energy up 40% and agricultural products up 25%.
/jlne.ws/4btY7mV
June 2024 figures at Eurex
Eurex
Total traded contracts at Eurex up 14 percent in June year-on-year. Interest rate derivatives at Eurex grew by 27 percent year-on-year in June.Notional outstanding in OTC Clearing increased by 5 percent compared to June 2023. Eurex, Europe's leading derivatives exchange, reports a 14 percent increase in traded contracts for June compared to the previous year, up from 182.1 million to 208.1 million contracts. Interest rate derivatives continued to record the largest increase, rising by 27 percent from 72.1 million to 91.5 million contracts. Equity derivatives grew by 12 percent to 28.9 million contracts, while index derivatives increased by 4 percent to 87.4 million traded contracts.
/jlne.ws/3VQFXWS
EEX Group Monthly Volumes - June 2024
EEX
Monthly Volume Report. EEX Group reports its June monthly volumes with the following highlights: EEX Group Global Power markets continued the rising trend in terms of Year-on-Year monthly volume growth to 893.6 TWh (+17%), with significant increase recorded in Belgian Power Futures (+110%) and CSEE Power Futures (+123%). EEX French Power Futures have seen a record monthly volume of 125.0 TWh, a 138% YoY increase.
/jlne.ws/3VUCSFj
JPX Monthly Headlines - June 2024
Japan Exchange Group
JPX group companies undertake various initiatives and disseminate information with the aim of providing the most attractive markets to all users. Every month, we showcase the highlights of these efforts in short and concise summaries just for you.
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SGX Group reports market statistics for June 2024
SGX Group
Derivatives volume rises on robust trading activity in FX and commodities; Singapore stock market caps April-June quarter on strong note. Singapore Exchange (SGX Group) today released its market statistics for June 2024. Global market participants continued to turn to SGX Group as their risk-management venue of choice, with robust trading activity in foreign exchange (FX) and commodity derivatives during the month. Singapore's cash equities market outperformed most regional peers for the April-to-June quarter.
/jlne.ws/4cJ5dWl
TMX Group Consolidated Trading Statistics - June 2024
Toronto Stock Exchange
TMX Group Limited today announced June 2024 trading statistics for its marketplaces - Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, TSX Alpha Exchange (Alpha), including Alpha-X & Alpha DRK, and Montreal Exchange (MX).
/jlne.ws/4byEwCj
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| Fintech | | A roundup of today's market tech news and a look at tomorrow's disruptors | Nvidia to make $12bn from AI chips in China this year despite US controls; Chipmaker set to surpass China sales by local rival Huawei by selling product designed to fall outside of export restrictions
Tim Bradshaw and Ryan McMorrow - Financial Times
Nvidia is on course to sell $12bn worth of artificial intelligence chips in China this year despite US export controls that have throttled its business in one of the world's biggest semiconductor markets. The $3tn Silicon Valley group will over the coming months deliver more than 1mn of its new H20 chips, which are designed to fall outside of US restrictions on selling AI processors to Chinese customers, according to analyst forecasts.
/jlne.ws/4603M3a
AI has all the answers. Even the wrong ones; ChatGPT has the appearance of a brilliant logician and that's a problem
Tim Harford - Financial Times
Can large language models solve logic puzzles? There's one way to find out, which is to ask. That's what Fernando Perez-Cruz and Hyun Song Shin recently did. (Perez-Cruz is an engineer; Shin is the head of research at the Bank for International Settlements as well as the man who, in the early 1990s, taught me some of the more mathematical pieces of economic theory.) The puzzle in question is commonly known as the "Cheryl's birthday puzzle". Cheryl challenges her friends Albert and Bernard to guess her birthday, and for puzzle-reasons they know it's one of 10 dates: May 15, 16 or 19; June 17 or 18; July 14 or 16; or August 14, 15 or 17. To speed up the guessing, Cheryl tells Albert her birth month, and tells Bernard the day of the month, but not the month itself.
/jlne.ws/3RV5iNX
Samsung expects profits to surge on demand for AI chips; World's largest memory chipmaker forecasts 15-fold rise in second-quarter figures
Song Jung-a - Financial Times
Samsung Electronics expects a more than 15-fold increase in second-quarter operating profit as memory chip prices continue their recovery from last year's slump on strong demand for artificial intelligence products. The stronger than expected guidance on Friday underscores a boom in data centres and AI development as big tech companies race to develop their own advanced AI models, sparking demand for cutting-edge D-Ram chips such as high-bandwidth memory.
/jlne.ws/3Lcn0ZF
Beware of the 'Concentrated' AI Chipmaker Bubble; MacroStrategy's James Ferguson tells Merryn Talks Money there are better places to put your money.
Merryn Somerset Webb - Bloomberg
There's an obvious bubble in the markets, according to James Ferguson, founder of MacroStrategy Partners, but it's "concentrated." It's specific to artificial intelligence-and even more specifically chipmakers. So intense is their outperformance of late that the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now make up 35% of the entire index (note that Nvidia is up 150% this year). On this week's Merryn Talks Money, Ferguson tells host Merryn Somerset Webb that historically, such a tight concentration ends badly.
/jlne.ws/4crdcH7
The cloud over cloud companies; The sector has been left behind in the euphoria over artificial intelligence sweeping through the stock market
Richard Waters - Financial Times
There is one notable corner of the tech world that has not been touched by the artificial intelligence euphoria sweeping through the stock market. If generative AI really does represent the next great sales opportunity for the tech industry, then software companies ought to be among the biggest winners. After all, most AI is likely to show up as enhanced features in the business software that companies rely on in their daily operations.
/jlne.ws/4cON1Ka
A top Russian banker says Russia's payment methods should be a 'state secret' because the West keeps shutting them down so fast
Huileng Tan - Business Insider
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| Cybersecurity | | Top stories for cybersecurity | OpenAI's internal AI details stolen in 2023 breach, NYT reports
Reuters
A hacker gained access to the internal messaging systems at OpenAI last year and stole details about the design of the company's artificial intelligence technologies, the New York Times reported on Thursday. The hacker lifted details from discussions in an online forum where employees talked about OpenAI's latest technologies, the report said, citing two people familiar with the incident.
/jlne.ws/3VPWf21
Supreme Court ruling on Chevron doctrine may upend future cybersecurity regulation
David Jones - Cybersecurity Dive
Experts expect new legal challenges against numerous agency cybersecurity requirements, including incident reporting mandates and rules governing critical infrastructure sectors.
/jlne.ws/3zs0TM5
A CISO's Guide to Avoiding Jail After a Breach
Nate Nelson - DarkReading
Yahoo, Uber, SolarWinds - increasingly, the government is incentivizing better corporate security by punishing the individuals leading it. Is that a good idea? And how can security pros avoid ending up on the butt end of a lawsuit?
/jlne.ws/45XaiHJ
Cybersecurity is worth the spend
Roei Khermosh - TechRadar
With earnings season approaching, organizations face a constant battle between growth and efficiency. It's a back-and-forth pendulum that swings through macro changes, business results, challenges, and success. Businesses are continuously questioning whether they should accelerate marketing spending, look for ways to cut costs, and gauge whether their current budget is effectively geared toward driving an appropriate return on investment (ROI). Typically, across board rooms and leadership teams, general and administrative (G&A) systems are thought of as overhead: a cost element needed to mitigate risk and meet compliance standards, rather than one that generates a return.
/jlne.ws/45XaXcb
Crypto Stolen by Hackers Doubles to $1.38 Billion In First Half of This Year; Attack on Japanese exchange DMM Bitcoin was biggest in 2024; Amount is still below the record 2022 level, TRM says
Benjamin Taubman - Bloomberg
The amount of cryptocurrency stolen through hacks and network exploits more than doubled to $1.38 billion in the first six months of the year, according to the blockchain intelligence firm TRM. Five large attacks accounted for 70% of all the crypto that was stolen. Like in 2023 and other years, a small number of attacks constituted the majority of stolen funds. The amount of crypto plundered this year, however, is still below the nearly $2 billion that was stolen in the first six months of 2022, the record year for crypto thievery.
/jlne.ws/3xKCH7j
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| Cryptocurrencies | | Top stories for cryptocurrencies | Bitcoin Traders Target $50K as Billions in BTC Selling Pressure Looms; "The German government still has over $2.3 billion worth of bitcoin, Mt. Gox has more than $8 billion, and the US government has over $12 billion," one trader pointed out.
Shaurya Malwa - CoinDesk
The largest cryptocurrency could drop to as low as $50,000 in coming weeks as billions of dollars of supply may be released to the market. The prospect of bitcoins from defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox and the German government hitting exchanges has sent the price plunging 10% in the past seven days. Bitcoin (BTC) traders expect prices to drop to as low as $50,000, a level not seen since mid-February, in the coming weeks, as the largest cryptocurrency by market cap could face billions of dollars worth of selling pressure. BTC prices have nosedived more than 10% in the past seven days, CoinGecko data shows, falling below a critical technical indicator on Thursday and erasing all gains since the end of February.
/jlne.ws/3zycfyj
Mt. Gox Begins Repayments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash
Parikshit Mishra, Sam Reynolds - CoinDesk
Mt. Gox said on Friday that it started making repayments to customers, ending a near 10-year wait for some users to get their crypto back after a 2014 hack sent the crypto exchange into bankruptcy. The company was once the world's top crypto exchange, handling over 70% of all bitcoin {{BTC}} transactions in its early years. The hack resulted in the loss of an estimated 740,000 bitcoin.The announcement added selling pressure on bitcoin and the broader crypto market after Mt. Gox announced last month its intention to start repayments in July.
/jlne.ws/4cwoOZI
Limestone Bitcoin miner GRIID merging with larger company
Jeff Keeling - WJHL Tri-Cities
Bitcoin mining company GRIID, which operates a facility in Limestone that became the subject of a lawsuit, has agreed to merge with a larger and more profitable Bitcoin mining company, CleanSpark. The deal would breathe new life into GRIID, which has lost millions of dollars in the past couple years, and could increase the odds that it would invest in a replacement Bitcoin mine in Johnson City. A lawsuit settlement requires the 25-megawatt (MW) Limestone mine, which opened in 2021, to close by March 2026.
/jlne.ws/45PNlX3
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| Politics | | An overview of politics as it relates to the financial markets | Trump Advisers Call for U.S. Nuclear Weapons Testing if He Is Elected; mA former national security adviser says Washington "must test new nuclear weapons for reliability and safety in the real world," while critics say the move could incite a global arms race that heightens the risk of war.
William J. Broad - The New York Times
Allies of Donald J. Trump are proposing that the United States restart the testing of nuclear weapons in underground detonations should the former president be re-elected in November. A number of nuclear experts reject such a resumption as unnecessary and say it would threaten to end a testing moratorium that the world's major atomic powers have honored for decades.
/jlne.ws/45P0aRv
7 crimes Trump could get away with in a second term
Rick Newman - Yahoo Finance
The July 1 Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity basically says the US president can't face criminal prosecution for anything he does while in office, as long as it's related to official duties. The 6-3 decision, powered by the court's conservative majority, may be the closest the United States has ever come to imbuing the president with kinglike powers. The case arose from the federal prosecution of former President Donald Trump and his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the US Capitol. The high court's opinion won't kill the case against Trump, but it will winnow its scope and delay the proceedings well into 2025. If Trump wins this year's presidential race, the historic ruling almost certainly gives Trump the cover to call off federal prosecutions of himself once he takes office.
/jlne.ws/4bpgx8x
Trump says he can end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day. Russia's UN ambassador says he can't
Edith M. Lederer - Associated Press
Donald Trump has repeatedly said he could settle the war between Russia and Ukraine in one day if he's elected president again. Russia's United Nations ambassador says he can't. When asked to respond to the claim from the presumptive Republican nominee, Vassily Nebenzia told reporters Monday that "the Ukrainian crisis cannot be solved in one day." At a CNN town hall in May 2023, Trump said: "They're dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I'll have that done - I'll have that done in 24 hours." He said that would happen after he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin. And he keeps repeating the claim on the campaign trail. During last week's debate with President Joe Biden, Trump claimed, "If we had a real president, a president that knew - that was respected by Putin ... he would have never invaded Ukraine."
/jlne.ws/3xL5nNw
Trump is keen to lower corporate taxes. Not all his GOP colleagues are on board.
Ben Werschkul - Yahoo Finance
Republicans are united around Donald Trump as their nominee, but where they are still divided is what to do about the 21% federal corporate tax rate if they control Washington next year. Some are pushing for a corporate rate as low as 15%. Others have signaled a willingness to accept an increase up to 25%. Donald Trump's current position is notably right in the middle after he floated a 20% rate during a recent meeting with CEOs.
/jlne.ws/3LeuwDe
Democratic donors push Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom as Joe Biden replacements; Michigan and Californian governors gain favour as US president enters make-or-break period to save candidacy
James Fontanella-Khan and Lauren Fedor - Financial Times
Top Democratic donors have made Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom their preferred candidates to replace Joe Biden in the White House race against Donald Trump, said several people familiar with the matter. The donor focus on Michigan governor Whitmer and California governor Newsom reflects deepening frustration among Democratic operatives and backers with the impasse over Biden's future.
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Starmer Becomes U.K. Prime Minister After Labour Party Landslide; Labour's resounding election victory ended 14 years of Conservative government. A fragmented vote saw the Conservatives crash to the worst result in their long history.
Mark Landler, Megan Specia and Stephen Castle - The New York Times
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Keir Starmer enters Downing Street as UK prime minister after historic victory; New leader pledges to rebuild trust after securing landslide win on just 34% of the vote
George Parker, Jim Pickard and Lucy Fisher - Financial Times
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SNP loses grip on Scotland as Labour regains dominance; Exit poll forecasts worst performance for nationalists since 2010
Simeon Kerr and Robert Wright - Financial Times
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Viktor Orban meets Vladimir Putin despite EU outcry; Hungarian PM says he will not negotiate on bloc's behalf after European leaders warned he does not represent them
Marton Dunai and Paola Tamma and Max Seddon - Financial Times
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Firms weigh removing Taiwan staff from China after death penalty threat
Laurie Chen - Reuters
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US intervened in Congo mine sale to Chinese arms group; US officials encouraged state miner Gecamines to review sale to a subsidiary of Chinese defence company Norinco
Tom Wilson and Harry Dempsey - Financial Times
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| Regulation & Enforcement | | Stories about regulation and the law. | Statement of Commissioner Caroline D. Pham Regarding Rule 11 Sanctions Motion in CFTC v. Traders Global Group
CFTC
I have recently reviewed the allegations against the CFTC in the publicly reported Rule 11 sanctions motion in CFTC v. Traders Global Group and become aware of the admonishments in the Court's opinion dated November 14, 2023. This is a grave matter, and we, the Commission, will be subject to intense scrutiny over how we handle the alleged CFTC misconduct. This type of behavior cannot be tolerated at a law enforcement agency. Tone comes from the top, and therefore, I urge my fellow Commissioners to consider my below recommendations to finally take full accountability and appropriate corrective action to address the conduct issues and support CFTC staff.
/jlne.ws/3LegLom
Federal Court Enters Summary Judgment Against Oregon Man and Orders $83 Million in Restitution for Fraud Victims
CFTC
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced Judge Mary Rowland of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois entered an order granting summary judgment to the CFTC on all counts of its complaint. Judge Rowland also ordered more than $83.7 million in restitution and $36.9 million in disgorgement jointly and severally against Sam Ikkurty of Oregon and Jafia, LLC, Ikkurty Capital, LLC d/b/a Rose City Income Fund I, Rose City Income Fund II, and Seneca Ventures, LLC (defendants). In addition, the summary judgment order also found the defendants misappropriated funds through a carbon offset program.
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Statement of Commissioner Caroline D. Pham on Filing of Complaint in CFTC v. Traders Global Group
CFTC
I am seriously concerned about the Commission's rush to the wrong side of history because we are failing to put in the bare minimum amount of work necessary to get it right. It is my job to uphold the Commodity Exchange Act and the Commission's jurisdiction so that we can faithfully execute our mission to protect the American people from fraud, manipulation, and abusive trading practices in our markets, and for that reason, I cannot stay silent. The alleged fraud in this case is reprehensible, and it is my hope that justice will be served and that the victims are made whole.
/jlne.ws/3XQFzu4
AAT varies ASIC's ban of Sydney financial adviser
ASIC
On 27 June 2024, the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (Tribunal) varied ASIC's decision to ban Mr Christopher Betalli from providing financial services (21-358MR). On 1 May 2021, ASIC banned Mr Betalli from providing financial services for two years. Mr Betalli appealed ASIC's decision to the Tribunal. The banning order was stayed on 24 June 2021 by order of the Tribunal.
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ASIC releases June 2024 financial adviser exam results
ASIC
ASIC today released the exam results from the 25th Financial Advisers Exam cycle, held in June 2024. The exam, conducted by the Australian Council for Educational Research (ACER) since inception, follows a rigorous process to ensure all candidates in each cycle are tested to the same standards.
/jlne.ws/3VOhSjr
ASIC proposes update to superannuation forecasts relief instrument
ASIC
ASIC proposes to update the rate of nominal wage inflation in ASIC (Superannuation Calculators and Retirement Estimates) Instrument 2022/603 (Instrument 2022/603), and Regulatory Guide 276 Superannuation forecasts: Calculators and retirement estimates (RG 276) in view of Treasury's revised long-term wage growth forecasts. Instrument 2022/603 exempts providers of superannuation calculators and retirement estimates (collectively referred to as 'superannuation forecasts') from certain regulatory requirements related to providing financial product advice if they provide their superannuation forecasts within the terms of the ASIC relief.
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Court declares PayPal Australia used an unfair contract term
ASIC
The Federal Court has declared a term used by PayPal Australia Pty Limited (PayPal) in its standard form contracts with small businesses to be unfair. The Court found that the term was unfair because its effect was to allow PayPal to retain fees that it had erroneously charged if the small business failed to notify PayPal of the error within 60 days of the fee appearing on its account statement.
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Memorandum of Cooperation with the Ontario Securities Commission
FSA
On June 27, the Financial Services Agency and the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) signed aMemorandum of Cooperation (MoC) regarding the supervision and oversight of central counterparties (CCPs) that are supervised by each of two authorities.
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SFC warns public of seven entities for suspected virtual asset-related fraud
SFC
The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) today warns the public of seven entities suspected of engaging in fraudulent activities purported to be related to virtual assets (collectively, suspected entities).
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| Investing & Trading | | Today's top stories from equities, indices and FICC (fixed income, currencies and commodities) | Bonds Are Boring Again. But Political Turmoil Could Change That.; After years of horrendous returns, core bonds were beginning to look like attractive, ho-hum investments. Then the debate happened.
Jeff Sommer - The New York Times
Bonds have begun to recede into the background, where they belong. As steady earners, they don't even try to compete with stocks, the prima donnas of the investing world. The first half of the year was mediocre for bonds, but that counted as a colossal improvement. All too frequently in the last three years, bonds demanded attention for the worst of reasons. Now, though, with the annual inflation rate falling, the fundamental outlook for the rest of 2024 and beyond is more positive for bonds than it has been in some time. If you've got cash sitting in a money market fund earning 5 percent a year in interest or more, you may want to start planning ahead because those lovely short-term interest rates could start to decline fairly soon - while bond returns would receive a hefty bonus.
/jlne.ws/45QNp8Y
Russell 1000 Surges to Record Heights - Exceeding 3000 for the First Time
FTSE Russell
FTSE Russell, a leading global index provider, today announced that the Russell 1000 Index has soared to a record-breaking milestone, surpassing the 3000 mark to close at 3,013.16. This historic achievement underscores the robust performance of the large-cap segment of the US equity market. The Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the US equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index and includes approximately 1,000 of the largest companies based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap segment of the investable US equity universe, and it is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included.
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Palantir's Peter Thiel Says It's 'Very Strange' That Most Money In AI Is Being Made By Only One Company
Ananya Gairola - Benzinga
Last week, while appearing at the Aspen Ideas Festival, Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) co-founder Peter Thiel shared his insights on artificial intelligence, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), and ChatGPT-parent OpenAI. What Happened: During the festival, Thiel drew parallels between the dot-com bubble of '99 and the current state of AI, stating that the peak of the bubble was also the peak of clarity, as people realized the internet was going to replace the old economy.
/jlne.ws/3xLgjdU
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| Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance | | Stories about environmental, social and governance investing | EU Markets Watchdog Signals a Hard Line on New ESG Disclosures
Frances Schwartzkopff - Bloomberg
Europe's financial markets watchdog said companies shouldn't anticipate that the complexity of new ESG reporting requirements will excuse sloppy disclosures. The European Securities and Markets Authority acknowledged that complying with the new European Sustainability Reporting Standards creates "challenges" for companies, and the first reports, due next year for the largest firms, will constitute a "milestone in the learning curve of issuers," according to a statement on Friday.
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A Conservative Farm Town Went Green Without Really Trying; Tiny Morris, Minn., adopted wind turbines, solar panels and composting to save money, not the planet-and now it has become a model for other rural towns
Edward Humes - The Wall Street Journal
The farm town of the future is visible long before you reach the city limits, thanks to a pair of wind turbines rising as high as the Statue of Liberty above the flat terrain. They pump cheap electricity into the local grid, providing the energy to make carbon-neutral fertilizer. Closer in, cows graze next to solar panels that provide them with shade. A county-wide compost operation disposes of food and agricultural waste, electric buses take kids to school, the public library relies on geothermal heating and even a city-owned liquor store has rooftop solar panels. https://jlne.ws/3VQ76Jy
Conservative challenge to NYC fossil-fuel divestments thrown out by judge; Case is part of a flurry of lawsuits over socially conscious investment decisions
Brooke Masters - Financial Times
A conservative-backed lawsuit challenging three New York City employee pension funds over their decision to sell billions of dollars in fossil fuel investments has been thrown out by a state court judge. The ruling, which was made public on Wednesday, held that the city employees who sued, and the advocacy group that backed them, could not challenge the divestment decision because they had not suffered any direct harm. The case, filed in 2022, is part of a flurry of litigation about socially conscious investing.
/jlne.ws/45UZDgD
Investment Drops in a Crucial Part of the Climate Tech Ecosystem; Younger companies are finding it challenging to raise money for building commercial-scale plants, putting early-stage technologies in a hard place.
Michelle Ma - Bloomberg
Climate tech startups are running into a major bottleneck: Funding for companies ready to build commercial-scale facilities is declining. Investment dropped 20% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year, but backing for growth-stage companies fell even further, according to a new report published Friday by intelligence firm Sightline Climate.
/jlne.ws/4ctqvXM
Can the Labour Party Bring Back Britain's Green Groove? The new government, widely expected to be led by Labour, has pledged to fast-track a green energy transition. It will face big challenges.
Somini Sengupta - New York Times
Britain, the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, erstwhile coal-burning imperial behemoth, wants to be a "clean energy superpower." At least that's the promise of the man poised to be the next prime minister, Keir Starmer. His Labour Party was projected to win the parliamentary elections on Thursday, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule. Labour made big campaign promises on climate. How that actually plays out will be felt not only in the daily lives of people in Britain, but also on the nation's standing in the world.
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Moscow hit by heat not seen in over a century
AFP
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Florida Insurers 'Stiffing' Customers as Nearly Half of Claims Unpaid
Giulia Carbonaro - Newsweek
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Stifling China's green energy boom would be a disaster; Does the government in Beijing have the courage to throw its weight behind what business is already doing?
Adam Tooze - Financial Times (Opinion)
/jlne.ws/3xKQwCE
Insurers braced for losses as Hurricane Beryl breaks records; Industry executives warn storm's size and early arrival raises risks for rest of season
Ian Smith - Financial Times
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British Airways owner IAG warns airfares must rise to fund carbon cuts; Company's chief Luis Gallego expects cost implications of switch to cleaner fuel to hit passenger demand
Philip Georgiadis - Financial Times
/jlne.ws/3zvDnhs
Canada Approves Glencore-Led Deal for Teck Coal Assets As structured, Switzerland-based Glencore would acquire a 77% stake in Teck's coal operations
Paul Vieira - The Wall Street Journal
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This Proxy Season, Companies' Success Against Activist Investors Surged
Mathilde Augustin - Inside Climate News
/jlne.ws/3znJ9Bx
Proxy season results show support for ESG efforts continues to ebb; Only two climate-related proposals received majority support this year, and no diversity initiative cleared 50%
Patrick Temple-West - Financial Times
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Germany gives apartment-dwellers legal right to solar power
Reuters
/jlne.ws/4cPSosE
Walmart must face lawsuit over deceptive pricing in stores
Jonathan Stempel - Reuters
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Shell expects hit of up to $1bn on stalled biofuel plant; Oil major paused work on Rotterdam project this week amid difficult market
Malcolm Moore - Financial Times
/jlne.ws/3Y9Z8xJ
Stifling China's green energy boom would be a disaster; Does the government in Beijing have the courage to throw its weight behind what business is already doing?
Adam Tooze - Financial Times
/jlne.ws/3xKQwCE
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| Banks, Brokers & Managed Funds | | The latest from banks, brokers, hedge funds and managed futures | Barclays Agrees to Sell German Consumer Finance Unit to Austria's Bawag; Barclays Consumer Bank Europe had $5 billion in gross assets, mostly from card and loan receivables
Elena Vardon - The Wall Street Journal
Barclays agreed to sell its German consumer finance business to a subsidiary of Austrian bank Bawag Group as it continues to execute its strategic plan to simplify its business. The British lender said that the unit-which offers diversified retail banking services to the German and Austrian markets-will be bought for a small premium to net assets which will be paid in cash when the deal closes. The business, which is called Consumer Bank Europe and has been operating in Germany for over three decades, had 4.7 billion euros ($5.07 billion) in gross assets-mostly from card and loan receivables-as of March 31, it said. Around EUR2 billion of these are credit-card receivables, Bawag's main focus.
/jlne.ws/3xJ6nBQ
JPMorgan Warns Customers: Prepare to Pay for Checking Accounts; Head of Chase says bank customers stand to lose out if Washington enacts new rules
Alexander Saeedy - The Wall Street Journal
The head of America's biggest retail bank has a warning for its 86 million customers: Prepare to pay for your bank accounts. Marianne Lake runs Chase Bank, the sprawling franchise inside JPMorgan Chase that is the country's biggest bank for consumers and one of its biggest credit-card issuers. Lake is warning that new rules that would cap overdraft and late fees will make everyday banking significantly more expensive for all Americans.
/jlne.ws/3W8apwX
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| Work & Management | | Stories impacting work and more about management ideas, practices and trends. | Downtown Offices Are Toxic. Suburban Ones Are Surviving.; Remote working has hit buildings in central business districts much harder than their sleepy counterparts in the 'burbs
Carol Ryan - The Wall Street Journal
After years in the shade, humble suburban offices are faring much better than glamorous city-center towers as home working continues to upend the property world. Downtown-office valuations have halved from their peak in early 2022, based on MSCI Real Assets data. For suburban offices, the drop is a more manageable 18%. This is the opposite of what happened after the 2008-09 financial crisis, when prices for out-of-town offices fell slightly more than in major hubs.
/jlne.ws/3zFscmb
The Hard Financial Lessons I Learned as a New Freelancer; The first few months of being on my own were exhilarating-and scary. I needed to understand that I had to run my new business like a business.
Julia Carpenter - The Wall Street Journal
At the beginning of March, I hit an emotional high: I started work as a freelancer, excited to embark on this new career I'd made for myself as a writer and podcaster. I set about making spreadsheets and lining up assignments. Every social-media "heart" and "like" seemed like an extra vote of confidence in favor of me betting on myself. My best friend sent me flowers. I even threw a party to celebrate.
/jlne.ws/3LaLXVh
Civics is becoming a 21st-century business skill
Carolyn Cawley - Fortune
The Fourth of July is a day typically filled with food, festivities, and fireworks in the U.S., as our nation celebrates the passage of the Declaration of Independence in 1776. But this day commemorates something else, too.
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| Wellness Exchange | | An Exchange of Health and Wellness Information | Coffee, eggs and white rice linked to higher levels of PFAS in human body; Study that researchers say highlights chemicals' ubiquity also shows PFAS association with seafood and red meat
Tom Perkins - The Guardian
New research aimed at identifying foods that contain higher levels of PFAS found people who eat more white rice, coffee, eggs and seafood typically showed more of the toxic chemicals in their plasma and breast milk. The study checked samples from 3,000 pregnant mothers, and is among the first research to suggest coffee and white rice may be contaminated at higher rates than other foods. It also identified an association between red meat consumption and levels of PFOS, one of the most common and dangerous PFAS compounds.
/jlne.ws/45UA7bj
China Is Finally Starting to Do Something About the U.S. Fentanyl Crisis; Chinese authorities quietly shut down chemical sellers and say they will regulate other opioid precursors
Brian Spegele - The Wall Street Journal
China is taking tentative new steps to help disrupt the global supply chain fueling the opioid crisis after intensifying criticism from the U.S. that its chemical factories are partly responsible for the deadly scourge. After a long freeze in joint counternarcotics work between the countries, President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledged to resume cooperation at a summit in California last November. Since then, Chinese authorities have quietly shut down some sellers of precursor chemicals used by Mexican cartels to make fentanyl and say they are close to imposing new regulations sought by the U.S. on three additional chemicals.
/jlne.ws/4cNOZdV
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| Regions | | Stories of local interest from the Americas, EMEA and Asia-Pacific regions | China's 'National Team' Gets Active in ETFs as Stocks Slump
Bloomberg News
Some exchange traded funds favored by China's sovereign wealth fund have seen spikes in inflows after the country's stocks tumbled below a key psychological level. Daily inflows into four ETFs that Central Huijin Investment Ltd. purchased during a market slump have more than doubled from this year's average in the past two weeks, according to Bloomberg calculations. The more active buying came after the Shanghai Composite Index closed below 3,000 points for the first time since March on June 21.
/jlne.ws/3WcKRh9
Japan declares victory in 'war' on floppy disks
Kelly Ng - BBC News
It's taken until 2024, but Japan has finally said goodbye to floppy disks. Up until last month, people were still asked to submit documents to the government using the outdated storage devices, with more than 1,000 regulations requiring their use. But these rules have now finally been scrapped, said Digital Minister Taro Kono. In 2021, Mr Kono had "declared war" on floppy disks. On Wednesday, almost three years later, he announced: "We have won the war on floppy disks!"
/jlne.ws/3VKid6s
India's 'passion for gold' fades as prices hover near record high; Some brides switch to artificial jewellery, although richest consumers have not been put off
Chris Kay - Financial Times
On a quiet afternoon at the Gold Palace jewellers in downtown Bengaluru, shopkeeper Shaik Ameen grumbles about lacklustre trading as Indian families cut back on pre-wedding purchases due to sky-high bullion prices. Before gold hit fresh records, 29-year-old Ameen, who helps run the store with his father, said about half of the roughly 50 daily walk-in customers could be counted on for a sale. That level is now down to about one-quarter.
/jlne.ws/3RYhMVk
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