| When Reform claimed that they now have more members than the Tories (via a digital counter projected on to Conservative headquarters) on Boxing Day, they probably hoped for a quick round of coverage during a political interlude. But they got a much better Christmas present from Kemi Badenoch. The Conservative leader – who has form for weird data fights – claimed the numbers had been faked, and that the code on Reform’s website proved it. Thanks to her intervention, the story led the rightwing press for several days. Membership isn’t really a proxy for national popularity, but at least some readers would have come away thinking of the two parties as, at best, neck and neck. This is not a terminal error – but it is emblematic of the tough start that Badenoch is having. “The big picture is that the Conservative party is in a bad place – decimated at the election and divided over her leadership,” Jessica said. “Badenoch’s not boring, but there was a concern among a lot of people that she is a loose cannon. She finds it very difficult to let things go, and that’s not a great asset in a leader.” Why did she get into it with Farage? To Badenoch’s critics, it was an indefensible mistake. “Badenoch doesn’t so much keep falling into [Farage’s] traps as leaping into them head-first,” journalist and former Ukip MEPPatrick O’Flynn wrote in the Spectator. “It is a disaster. Her perceived hostility towards Farage is likely to upset voters who once backed the Tories yet have recently transferred their allegiance to Reform.” But there are factors that make it at least comprehensible, Jessica said. “In general, she’s probably doing the right thing by deciding that it’s too early to set out a policy platform – even if she’s already deviated from that approach on a couple of issues – the farmers’ inheritance tax row and VAT on private schools, which are expensive policies to say you’re going to reverse this early.” For now, she added, the right focus is probably the rehabilitation of her own party. “That is what worked for Starmer: win a hearing from the public and get into specifics later.” But that is hard to square with the view among some senior Conservatives who disagree with O’Flynn and say that they have to take Farage on as an “existential threat to the party,” Jessica said. “It’s difficult in their current position to win a policy argument with Reform. Whereas if she attacks them as charlatans and stunt artists, that is an argument she can make.” How is she doing more generally? One claim made by Badenoch’s supporters was that she would run rings around Starmer at PMQs – crucial for an opposition leader as one of the few consistent opportunities for media attention. But most observers suggest that there hasn’t been much evidence of that yet: in the Spectator, for example, Isabel Hardman wrote that Badenoch has “become fixated on accusing Keir Starmer of not telling the truth at prime minister’s questions, to the extent that she is neglecting to push him on individual issues”. And in the New Statesman, Rachel Cunliffe wrote that “Week after week at PMQs, Badenoch is presented with open goals (and fails to score)”. There is a danger of overdoing the significance of all that, Jessica noted. “It always takes an opposition leader a while to find a rhythm at PMQs,” she said. “And it’s harder when the government has a thumping majority behind it roaring the prime minister on while your own benches are so depleted.” On the other hand, she added, “I’ve been surprised by the subjects she’s chosen to focus on a few times. She has often gone for things that Starmer can fairly easily blame on the last government, and she hasn’t done much on the winter fuel allowance or the impact of the rise in employers’ national insurance contributions on hospitality. Those are much more unpopular than adding VAT to private school fees.” She has meanwhile got a fair bit of media attention – but the Farage saga suggests that she is not all that adept at turning it to her advantage yet. “Kemi hates journalists, and hates being interviewed, and just isn’t prepared to do short clips and all the sort of stuff that opposition leaders have to do to keep from being forgotten,” Jessica said. “And because she hates journalists, she often comes across as irritated. So that’s something she will need to address.” What do the polls say? | 