| | | | Monday, March 22, 2021 | | Over the weekend, some of the biggest remaining names in NFL free agency found new homes, and at this point, Sammy Watkins and T.Y. Hilton are the only Fantasy-relevant players in the top 75 in CBS Sports' NFL Free Agency Tracker still unsigned. | | That means most of the movement we're going to see in free agency is done. A few more signings will trickle in over the rest of the week, but the main part of this portion of the offseason is done. Later in the week on the Fantasy Football Today Newsletter, I'll break down the biggest winners and losers and risers and fallers in the rankings, and then we'll start to look ahead at the NFL Draft and the biggest team needs and top prospects for each position. | | For now, though, here's a breakdown of the biggest signings from the weekend, starting with a new No. 1 wide receiver in New York. | | Old Faces In New Places | | | | Kenny Golladay to the Giants | | The Giants seem to be following the Bills model of trying to build around their young, raw quarterback, and they're hoping Golladay can be their Stefon Diggs. Of course, just because it worked for the Bills doesn't mean it will work for the Giants, but they get credit for identifying a need to build around Daniel Jones as he tries to develop into a starting QB. | | Which is to say, don't expect Golladay to turn into Diggs just because of this move. The leap Josh Allen made in 2020 was pretty historic, and the Bills have a better offensive line than the Giants do -- and the Giants line doesn't seem particularly likely to get much better this season. However, there should be no question as to who the No. 1 receiver for the Giants is. The question is if he remains primarily a downfield weapon or whether, like Diggs, his new team will use him in a variety of different ways as a true No. 1. | | I would expect it'll be more the former than the latter. With Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram around to make plays in the middle of the field and in the short and intermediate areas, it should be Golladay and Slayton pressuring defenses over the top. That should limit Golladay's target share somewhat, and this doesn't project to be a particularly high-volume passing offense -- especially once you account for Saquon Barkley's expected role as a receiver -- so I've got Golladay projected for 122 targets, 71 yards, 1,085 yards and seven touchdowns. Not much different from what we saw in 2018 and 2019 in Detroit. | | That is better than what he had in Detroit, but it only projects out to WR25 for Golladay, which admittedly feels a bit low. The upside is certainly higher than that, especially if Jones really does take a big step forward in his third season. I would expect Golladay to be ranked and drafted quite a bit higher than that by most Fantasy players, which means I probably won't be drafting much of him. It'll come down to how ready Jones is to take that next step. | | Phillip Lindsay to the Texans | | In Denver, Phillip Lindsay found himself stuck as the smaller side of a timeshare with a back with three-down skills in a bad offense. In Houston … well, maybe Lindsay will end up the larger side of a timeshare with a back with three-down skills, but maybe this time it won't be a bad offense? It all depends on what happens with Deshaun Watson, but either way, it's pretty hard to get excited about this signing. | | Lindsay got a $3.25 million contract from the Texans just a few months after they restructured the final year on incumbent starter David Johnson's contract, guaranteeing him $4.25 with a $6 million cap hit. That doesn't mean Lindsay can't be the lead back here, but my assumption is the Texans will go into the season with Johnson as at least the 1a. Oh, and Mark Ingram is here, too. | | Johnson rushed for 691 yards on 147 carries with six touchdowns in 12 games last season and added 33 catches on 43 targets, while Duke Johnson had 77 carries of his own with 35 targets. That's not a lot of work going the running backs' way, at least in part because Houston was trailing so often. They might be more competitive in 2020, but that's no guarantee even if Watson comes back. And if they do end up trading him, this offense could really bottom out. | | I've got Lindsay projected for 100 carries, 19 catches, and 643 total yards, plus five total touchdowns; Johnson has 184 carries, 35 receptions, and 1,047 total yards and 7.5 touchdowns. Like I said, not exciting. Johnson is low-end No. 3 RB for Fantasy, while Lindsay is strictly a backup, and you might best off just avoiding this one. | | Old Faces in Old Places | | JuJu Smith-Schuster returns to the Steelers | | I am not a fan of this one. The Steelers ended up having a decent offense in 2020, but it was not pretty to watch. Ben Roethlisberger played like he was afraid of taking a hit, which too often led to short throws that put his receivers in poor position to succeed, and Smith-Schuster was affected more than anyone. | | Smith-Schuster earned 128 targets in 2020, but saw his average depth of target collapse, from 7.7 yards in 2019 to just 4.4. Typically, shorter passes at least lead to more YAC, but that wasn't the case in Pittsburgh's offense, as he averaged a career low in YAC per reception at 4.2 (down from 5.5 in 2019). On too many of his targets, Smith-Schuster was targeted with his back to the defense at basically a stand still 4 yards down the field -- it's hard to do much in that situation, even for a relatively gifted playmaker. | | And why should we expect that to change in 2021? Roethlisberger is still at QB, and while he will be a year further removed from elbow surgery, he will be a year older. The Steelers have three wide receivers in Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool who all arguably could be the top target in this offense, but Smith-Schuster especially seems stuck in the middle of the three, unlikely to get as many target as Johnson and unlikely to get as much work down the field as Claypool. | | I do expect all three to be Fantasy relevant again, but I'm not counting on Smith-Schuster to repeat his WR16 finish, since that came with 16 games played and nine touchdowns. I have him projected as WR 37, while Claypool comes in at WR43; Johnson is WR17. I would've preferred to see Smith-Schuster go elsewhere, because now it will take Roethlisberger having a bounce-back season to elevate this trio. And I'm just not expecting it. | | Chris Carson returns to the Seahawks | | I'll admit, I had pretty much written off the chances of Carson coming back to Seattle, but now it looks like he's likely to remain the starter for at least the next two seasons after his three-year, $14.6 million contract. And that's great news for Carson's Fantasy appeal, because we know what to expect from him in this offense. In 2018 and 2019, he averaged 17.6 and 18.5 rushes per game, and I'm expecting him to get back there in 2021. | | Carson's carries per game did dip in 2020 to just 11.8 per game, however that was at least partially due to a mid-foot sprain that kept him out of four games and limited him in two others. The Seahawks also grew uncharacteristically pass-heavy last season, and coach Pete Carroll's stated desire to run the ball more following Russell Wilson's second-half slump bodes well for a bounce-back season for Carson. | | Of course, Wilson looms over all of this, because he is reportedly disgruntled and hoping to be traded. That would obviously change the entire complexion of the offense, making it a much less appealing situation, given how efficient and effective Wilson has been. Hopefully, that situation gets sorted out one way or another this summer, and we can go into the season with a sense of how things are going to look, because if Wilson is back, Carson could be a borderline No. 1 Fantasy RB. I've got him ranked as RB12 in PPR and non-PPR, and there's an awful lot to like about his return to Seattle. | | Dynasty Winners and Losers | | | | I've talked a lot about the 2021 impact of these free agent moves, both today and over the last week, but there are plenty of you out there playing in Dynasty leagues who want to know how the deals made in the present will impact the future of your teams. | | When it comes to free agency, one thing to remember is that the near-term impact is almost always going to trump the long-term ramifications, because we're talking about players who are already established in the NFL and often approaching the end of their primes -- Carson will be 27 early next season, and Golladay turns 28 in November, for example. | | However, every move creates opportunities for new value and blocks off other paths, and Heath Cummings broke down the biggest winners and losers from the first week of free agency on CBSSports.com. Here are some of his picks: | | Winners | | Cam Newton -- "Newton's Dynasty value fell off a cliff in 2020, largely due to his own poor play. A month ago there was a real question whether he'd ever start again in the NFL. While New England could still draft or sign competition for Newton, he's currently their best quarterback and he's surrounded by a lot more talent than last year. Newton's rushing production combined with the new faces in New England will be enough to move him back into my top 20 Dynasty quarterbacks." Curtis Samuel -- "I wasn't sure he'd land a role with this type of target opportunity, so he moved up quite a bit, from a low-end No. 4 receiver to a low-end No. 3 with room to grow. It's not hard to see him earning 120 targets, even with Terry McLaurin there. Scott Turner has called very pass-heavy offenses, and there's very little legitimate competition for targets out wide. While Samuel is technically a winner, I wouldn't mind selling in this window if someone views him as more of a borderline No. 2 option." Irv Smith -- "With Kyle Rudolph gone, Smith has a legitimate shot at a breakout top-12 season. Smith has moved inside my top 10 Dynasty tight ends." | | Losers | | A.J. Dillon -- "If Jones was the biggest winner, Dillon was one of the biggest losers. A week ago there was a real hope Dillon could see 200-plus touches in his second year in the league. Now he looks to be locked into the secondary role, without the receiving work that helped Jamaal Williams be flex worthy. Because of his age and upside, Dillon remains a high-end No. 3 running back for me, but I'd now take any 2021 first-round pick for him, and I'd strongly consider an early 2021 second. Dillon now likely needs an injury to be a Fantasy starter in the next two seasons." Josh Jacobs -- "I'm slightly more optimistic about Jacobs in Dynasty than for 2021. Jacobs could still be a low-end No. 1 running back with good efficiency, and he'll still be just 23 years old at the start of the 2021 season. While he definitely fell in my Dynasty rankings, he's still a top-10 back in that format, which means he's a buy during this news cycle." Mike Evans -- "With Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski back in Tampa, Evans' coming touchdown regression can no longer be hidden behind an increase in targets. He's also approaching the age where receivers take a hit in Dynasty value every year." | | Check out the rest of Heath's breakdown here, and get all of our Dynasty content here, including rankings, trade values, prospect profiles for the upcoming draft and more. | | News and Notes | | | | Desean Jackson to the Rams -- Much has been said about the regression of the offensive line, and the running game, and the QB play, and while all that has certainly played a role in the Rams offensive not being as potent the past few years. Maybe the lack of the explosive element Brandin Cooks brought to the offense was more missed than anyone realized. Cooks was a shell of himself in 2019 and then wasn't there in 2020, and the team hasn't really had anyone to replicate what he brought to the table. Maybe Jackson can do something about that. At 34, he hasn't had more than 236 yards in a season since 2018 -- and hasn't had more than 774 since 2016 -- but Jackson still has plenty of speed, and if he can give the Rams even a handful of plays with that threat each week, it could open up the underneath stuff Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods rely on more. At least while he's on the field. Dan Arnold to the Panthers -- Arnold is a tight end in name only, and he showed some real chops as a receiver in 2020, catching 31 of 45 passes for 438 yards and four touchdowns for the Cardinals. The problem for him in signing with the Panthers is there probably aren't going to be too many targets available; even after losing Curtis Samuel in free agency, they've got Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson to get involved. Arnold has upside to break out as a starting TE, but he's TE23 in my rankings for now. The Broncos want to bring in competition for Drew Lock -- This has been the talk out of Denver since the season ended, but general manager George Paton put his name to it this time, telling reporters in a press conference Thursday, "We do want to bring in competition." Of course, he followed that up, "We're not going to force it," so Lock is still the odds-on favorite to start for the Broncos in 2021. He's not without talent, and his aggressive approach could mesh well with the receiving talent around him. But until I see Lock take that step forward, I'm going to have trouble buying into Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant as breakouts. The Jaguars are not looking to trade Gardner Minshew yet -- Round 1 of the 2021 NFL draft is April 29, so they'll be looking to trade him sometime around then. He'll almost certainly end up on another roster once the Jaguars officially select Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall. | | | | | | | | March Madness Live | | THE BRACKET IS LIVE! | It’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for – NCAA March Madness returns! Watch all of the clutch shots, bracket busters, Cinderellas and more on CBS, TBS, TNT, truTV and the March Madness Live App, March 18th - April 5th!
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