What Kim Jong-un wants from his surprise meeting with Vladimir Putin

Good morning. I’m Rupert Neate and I’ll be joining Nimo to bring you this daily briefing for the next couple of months. Normally, I write about the antics of the global super-rich, but this morning we’ll be trying to figure out what the leaders of two of the world’s “rogue states” are getting up to – and what it means for all of us.

Kim Jong-un, the self-styled “supreme leader” of North Korea who had not left the country since before the pandemic, has rolled into Russia on his personal luxury bullet-proof train for a meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin this morning at a space base in the country’s far-east.

Putin welcomed Kim to Vostochny in the remote eastern region of Amur telling him he was “very glad” to see him. Kim thanked Putin for extending the invite “despite being busy” presumably with the war in Ukraine.

Putin said that Russia would help North Korea build satellites and when asked if he and Kim Jong-un would talk about weapons supplies, he replied that all issues would be on the table

The US is concerned that Kim will provide Putin with “literally millions” of artillery shells, rockets and perhaps thousands of mercenaries that Russia desperately needs to continue the war in Ukraine.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Chad O’Carroll, founder of NK News, one of the few websites dedicated to covering North Korea, about the geopolitical implications of the summit. But first, the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘Kim has absolutely nothing to lose’

Why is Kim visiting Putin?

Chad O’Carroll says it would have come as a shock that Kim chose Russia as his first overseas visit in four years, if only the US hadn’t publicised the visit last week in an attempt to put global pressure on Kim to “abide by the public commitments that Pyongyang has made to not provide or sell arms to Russia”.

“We would have expected Kim’s first visit to be to China, which is North Korea’s biggest trading party,” says O’Carroll, who admits to being “totally obsessed” with North Korea since visiting Pyongyang as a tourist in 2009. “But Kim has taken a gamble, and seen an opportunity to offer support to Russia – and Russia has made it increasingly clear it is willing to overlook UN security council sanctions [that ban trade in weapons with North Korea].”

What does Putin want?

Russia is thought to be fast running out of munitions, having used some 12m artillery shells in the war in Ukraine in 2022, according to the London-based defence thinktank Rusi. It’s expected to use another 7m this year, and it only has the capacity to produce 2.5m-a-year. North Korea, O’Carroll says, has a large stockpile of shells and rockets, and they’re also compatible with Soviet-era weapons.

Rare glimpses of life inside North Korea, where the UN estimates more than 40% of people are malnourished and don’t have access to modern day conveniences, might leave outsiders wondering if its weapons are any good. 38 North, a US-thinktank that concentrates on technical analysis of North Korea, found that of the 170 shells North Korea fired at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in 2010, more than half missed the island and 20% that did hit the target failed to explode. But O’Carroll says that’s not reason enough to suggest that over one million shells estimated to be in North Korea’s current stockpile are not good quality.

Military analysts say North Korea could also supply shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles and an anti-tank missile that could be compatible with Russia’s Kornet systems. O’Carroll believes North Korea could even supply Russia with huge numbers of workers and perhaps mercenaries to replace those previously supplied by the Wagner group. “Large numbers of North Korean labourers could be sent to where Russia desperately needs them, and maybe into Donetsk in Ukraine,” he says. “And I wouldn’t rule out North Korean mercenaries being sent to Ukraine.”

The Kremlin spokesperson on Wednesday said: “As neighbours, our countries implement cooperation in sensitive areas that should not become the subject of public disclosure and announcement. But this is quite natural for neighbouring states.”

Can Kim be convinced not to do a deal?

The US is desperate to stop any deal going ahead and has threatened further sanctions if it does. “I will remind both countries that any transfer of arms from North Korea to Russia would be in violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions,” US state department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Monday.

However, O’Carroll says it is US sanctions that have led to the expected deal, and the threat of more isn’t going to have the desired effect. “Kim has absolutely nothing to lose,” he says. “Apart from the minor risk of assassination while being in a foreign country, but you’d think Russia would have provided assurances against that.

“There is nothing more that the US can do to penalise North Korea. Kim has shown during the intense Covid lockdown that he is prepared to do more to make the people suffer than US sanctions could do.”

What else we’ve been reading

Kate Lindsay is very good on how social media companies have tried – and failed – to emulate the enormous algorithmic success of TikTok, for this week’s TechScape … Sign up here to receive the newsletter every Tuesday. Craille Maguire Gillies, production editor, newsletters

Perhaps we have learned to live with “surge pricing” when attempting to book an Uber at a busy time, but is it really acceptable to be charged 20p more for a pint when a pub is busy? Rob Davies reports that Britain’s largest pub company thinks it’s more than OK. Rupert

Much has been revealed about Suella Braverman’s controversial Bibby Stockholm project, but what is it like on the barge? Two asylum seekers being held there offer a bracing account of leaving their homes, jobs and families for supposed safety in the UK, only to end up feeling like “bait in a trap”. Craille

You’ll never guess what’s driving sales at Primark, or maybe you will. The answer is Barbie T-shirts, and it’s men that are buying them, the retailer’s owner Associated British Foods said in this report by Julia Kollewe. Rupert

As a person who mourned the absence of friends who had become parents, and now as the mother of a toddler, I was keen to read Allison P Davis’s feature for New York Magazine (£) about why friendship can survive illness, marriage and fights – but not always babies. Craille

Sport

Football | Gareth Southgate hit out at the media’s “ridiculous” treatment of Harry Maguire after the defender scored an own goal during England’s friendly against Scotland at Hampden Park on Tuesday night. It was an assist and goal from Jude Bellingham that gave England the momentum to secure a 3-1 victory over the Scots.

Tennis | The former tennis world No 1 Simona Halep has been banned for four years for two intentional breaches of anti-doping rules, the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) has announced. Halep, who won the French Open in 2018 and Wimbledon a year later, tested positive for the prohibited substance roxadustat at the US Open in 2022

Cycling | Belgian cyclist Nathan van Hooydonck was taken to hospital after being involved in a car accident on Tuesday, his Jumbo-Visma team confirmed. A later statement from his team said that Van Hooydonck’s condition was “not critical” in hospital and he had not suffered serious injuries.

The front pages

The Guardian carries a large image from Libya’s port city of Derna, under the headline “‘Beyond comprehension’: Libya flooding leaves thousands dead”. The i reports “State pension triple lock under threat after next election”, while the Mail looks at the same story with “Minister’s threat to future of pensions triple lock”.

The Financial Times leads with “Labour cannot tax and spend its way out of Tory mess, warns Blair”. The Times says “MI5 warned Tories: MP candidates may be spies”.

The Telegraph carries comments from the former defence secretary with “Wallace: ‘Human rights laws protecting terrorists’”. The Mirror reports on what it calls a “high street crime surge”, under the headline “Year of the shoplifter”.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Art detective Arthur Brand (above), known as the “Indiana Jones of the art world”, has recovered a Vincent van Gogh painting stolen from a museum in an audacious midnight heist during the coronavirus lockdown.

Parsonage Garden at Nuenen in Spring, painted in 1884 and worth €3m-6m (£2.6m-5.2m), was left at Brand’s Amsterdam home on Monday, in a blue Ikea bag, covered with bubble-wrap and stuffed in a pillowcase.

“After a few months, I heard from a source in the criminal world who had bought the Van Gogh,” said Brand, who has gained fame for his remarkable recoveries of stolen art, including the “Hitler’s Horses” bronze statues and a ring that once belonged to Oscar Wilde.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.

Quick crossword

Cryptic crossword

Wordiply