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You've probably noticed that I've been promoting Dan Amerman's work in the last few emails.
Why now?
After all, I've known Dan for a decade and half. I almost never promote other people's stuff. Worse yet, one of the recommended DVD sets dates back to 2010, another from 2014, and the most recent is 2020.
Why would I suddenly handpick these varying vintages of DVD education for this specific moment and recommend them to you?
Dan has always been an unusually insightful financial analyst, but like many bright minds, he saw it too early. I always liked his ideas and felt he would inevitably be correct, but I disagreed with his sequencing and timing.
However, all of that changed this year. The combination of two exogenous economic debacles (the international virus lock-down and oil supply shock) combined with the Fed's "nuclear" fiscal and monetary response changed everything.
You likely feel the intuitive truth of this cautionary message in your bones without fully understanding the details why. There's something unusual about what's happening. Why did the government respond so quickly, so dramatically, and so desperately. It's because they know what's at stake, and it's big.
I will explain all the details in future articles, but let me seed the conversation with another timely event this past week - Carmen Reinhart was appointed Chief Economist to the World Bank. Sure, she's a renowned Harvard economist and eminently qualified for the job. No argument. But there are hundreds of other economists equally qualified, Why Carmen, and why right now?
What makes Carmen an interesting appointee is her unique expertise as the co-author of "This Time is Different - Eight Centuries of Financial Folly." That book examined the recurring booms, busts, and resulting financial crises throughout economic history (800 years, to be exact).
In other words, she's one of the world's greatest experts at rare, but fully predictable, epochal financial crises. And the World Bank wants her expertise now. That should tell you something.
The way it works is full economic cycles take 2-3 generations to complete, and that's what makes the end-game in the cycle so difficult and surprising for people who haven't studied them extensively. You would have no reason to expect or understand what is coming because you've never seen it before. You've lived through "normal" boom and bust cycles and naturally assume that's the way it will always be.
But it's equally true that once every 2-3 generations an epochal change occurs - the end-game of the established economic pattern that preceded it. By definition, that's not normal in terms of your limited lifetime experience, but economic history shows it recurs according to a reliable and predictable pattern.
When these end-game periods of epochal change occur it means investment strategies that always worked before suddenly don't work. Surprisingly dramatic economic shifts and adjustments happen in a relatively short period of time. The rules of the game are altered for a brief period of time.
You might be tempted to think it's not important if it only takes a few years to unfold, but the magnitude of the change is so large that it will likely make or break your entire lifetime of investment results.
I believe we just entered one of these periods of economic change. You are now living through economic history. The record breaking decline in March, record Fed stimulus, record unemployment, record debt and deficits, and every other record being broken, are all symptoms.
These economic tensions have been accumulating under the surface for decades like the earth's tectonic plates building tension under the earth's crust. That tension remains largely unnoticed until a sudden earthquake comes out of nowhere to release the tension and adjust reality to fit the change that preceded it. Similarly, we are likely entering a period of financial earthquake resulting from all the tension built into the system over many decades that is finally getting released.
I don't say this to scare you. Instead, I want you to prepare and educate yourself so you know what to do. The Fed bought you some much-needed time with their stimulus package. It temporarily calmed the markets.
This epochal change is not about fear. In fact, it's healing to the economy and sets the foundation for another period of long-term growth. If you are young, it's the best thing that could happen to your long-term finances. If you're older with accumulated wealth, then you must prepare.
I'm not a doom-and-gloomer, or a prepper, and the sky isn't going to fall. We will likely trade our way to the inevitable outcome creating many winners and losers. Life will go on just fine for most of us, and wtth proper education and strategy, it can work out fine for you.
You just need to know what to do.
And that's why I finally recommended the Dan Amerman DVDs and negotiated a special price for you now, and not 10 years ago. These DVDs are not a Netflix replacement. It's serious financial education with spreadsheets involving hours of timely, detailed analysis. It's knowledge you'll want to have so that you understand what's coming over the next decade. It provides education and investment strategies that I haven't seen published elsewhere to help you prepare.
Watching Dan's two DVDs from 2010 (I recommend you watch those first) is a surreal experience because (almost) everything he is outlining from 10 years ago feels like today. And when you see his debt analysis DVDs from 2020 showing what's already baked into the cake for the next decade, you'll cringe to understand the inviolable math implications of the multi-trillion dollar bailouts last month.
Again, I'm not a doom-and-gloomer. As Carmen Reinhart knows from her own research, the world always endures through these epochal financial events. Society continues, albeit changed, and life moves forward.
Those who prepare by developing specific knowledge about investment strategies and risk management for these unique times should be able to navigate the turbulence. Those who cling to what has worked in the past will have trouble.
My job is to prepare you through education so you aren't taken by surprise. There are two next steps you can take:

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