There are two key, big picture home price indices in the U.S.  They come out every month, but with a 2 month lag.  That means we're getting September's prices today.   The two indices are: S&P Case Shiller, which focuses on a smaller data set that tends to detect trends sooner, but also in a more volatile way FHFA, a U.S. government agency that ultimately captures about as many transactions as could possibly be captured, thus producing the broadest and most authoritative update on home prices.  For this reason, it serves as the foundation for updating the annual conforming loan limit. What happened with September's data? The more volatile Case Shiller data declined by 0.3% in September while FHFA's broader data set showed 0.7% growth.  These discrepancies aren't uncommon.  Moreover, both are reflecting a mid-4% rate of appreciation in annual terms. What are the implications for conforming loan limits, and what even is a conforming loan limit (CLL)? The CLL is the highest loan amount that can be guaranteed by housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Their guarantee allows for several advantages ranging from standardized automated underwriting capabilities to generally lower interest rates.  There is a base loan limit, but some of the most expensive counties can be 150% of that limit. The previous loan limit was $766,550.  
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November 26, 2024
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Housing News
There are two key, big picture home price indices in the U.S.  They come out every month, but with a 2 month lag.  That means we're getting September's prices today.   The two indices are: S&P Case Shiller, which focuses o... (read more)
Housing News
Even on a good day, the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report has a notoriously wide margin of error.  But today's 12.8% margin of error isn't even the best counterpoint to today's ostensibly alarming 17.3% month over month decline. ... (read more)
MBS Commentary
No Major Data. No Major Drama While today's economic calendar was not necessarily "empty," it may as well have been in terms of market movement potential.  Home prices came in hotter according to FHFA, b... (read more)
Mortgage Rate Watch
Although there was a busier calendar of economic data today, mortgage rates are little changed after dropping at the fastest pace in several weeks to start the new week. Economic data is one of the main sources of motivation for the bond market which... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
“If there's anyone out there who has no family and is planning to stay home alone this Thanksgiving, please let me know. I need to borrow some chairs.” Kind of cute… What isn’t cute is that the MBA has reduced its production forecast for 2025 from $2... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries