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| Friday, August 9, 2024 |
| Jackson Chourio shared the spotlight with a couple other rookie Jacksons in Thursday's newsletter, but he gets the stage all to himself today after another massive showing against the Braves. |
| Chourio clubbed a couple of homers Thursday in the Brewers 16-6 win over the Braves and had three batted balls of at least 99 mph in the game, and it just continued his incredible hot streak. The rookie is now 13 for 29 in the month of August, and he heads into the weekend with five straight multi-hit games to his name, plus a couple of stolen bases for good measure. |
| But this isn't just a one-week hot streak or anything. Chourio is now hitting .337/.392/.543 since June 1, with nine homers and eight steals in 51 games, a 27-homer, 24-steal pace, exactly what we were hoping for when the top-five prospect in baseball made his MLB debut on Opening Day. He struggled early on, but has cut his strikeout rate to just 16.6% since the start of June, and more than looks like he belongs – he looks like a potential superstar right now. |
| And it's important to keep in mind how young Chourio is: He won't turn 21 until a few weeks before Opening Day of next season. He's four months younger than Jackson Holliday; he's 19 months younger than Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 pick in this year's MLB draft. He's currently on pace to become just the third player of the past decade to have at least 500 plate appearances as a 20-year-old with at least a league-average OPS, and he's only getting more comfortable as the season goes on. |
| Is he a top-50 pick for next year's drafts? If he keeps this pace up, I think he's going to get there. We're talking about a premium prospect who overcame some early struggles to emerge as an impact player with what looks to be very few flaws in his game at this point. His biggest weakness might be hitting for power against fastballs – he has just a .119 expected ISO against fastballs right now, which feels like a skill we can definitely project a young player to improve on. |
| It would be hard to overstate how impressive Chourio's development has been this season, and he's only getting better with every passing game, it seems. We're talking about a potential superstar, both in real life and in Fantasy, and he deserves whatever praise we can give to him right now. |
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| Thursday News and Notes |
| Anthony Volpe left Thursday's game against the Angels after fouling a ball off his left foot, though X-rays came back negative, so hopefully, it's just a minor issue that keeps him out for a day or two. It's not ideal timing, as Volpe has been hot since reworking his swing around the All-Star break. |
| Joshua Lowe was pulled from Thursday's game after fouling a ball off his right knee in his first and only at-bat of the game. X-rays came back negative, which is a good sign, though, after Kyle Tucker, I guess we can't assume anything here. |
| Merrill Kelly (shoulder) could be back from the IL Sunday against the Phillies. He's been out since mid-April with a shoulder injury, but has some appeal for Fantasy if he's right – though I would prefer not to start him in this matchup, certainly. |
| The Braves are pushing Spencer Schwellenbach back a few days in the rotation in an effort to manage his innings. Already up to 110.2 this season after 65 last year. Between Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez , this has been a difficult juggling act for the Braves. Would assume Dylan Dodd or Bryce Elder will get a start in the coming days. |
| Vaughn Grissom was activated from the IL and optioned to Triple-A. He'll play every day at Triple-A and I still have some hope for him, but this has been a dreadful season for him. |
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| Jurickson Profar returned to the lineup Thursday despite leaving Wednesday's game after being hit by a pitch on his right knee. Ha-Seong Kim (triceps) also returned to the lineup at shortstop after missing the previous two games. |
| The Twins are awaiting results of an MRI on Joe Ryan's triceps injury, but the team is optimistic that he won't have to miss too much time – Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters that it was "more muscle tightness than a sudden pain" and the team doesn't believe there is ligament damage at this point. |
| Julio Rodriguez (ankle) has been able to take batting practice and run the bases over the past couple of days, and while he isn't likely to be back this weekend, he is being viewed as day-to-day and should be back soon. |
| Ranger Suarez (back) threw a bullpen session Thursday, but will probably not be back during the team's upcoming homestand, which runs through the 18th, per manager Rob Thomson. He'll face hitters in a live batting practice in the coming days before determining if he has to go on a rehab assignment. |
| Jared Jones )lat) pitched 2.2 innings in his Triple-A rehab start Thursday, striking out three, walking one, and allowing two runs over 47 pitches. His velocity was down a tick, but that's not too concerning for the start of a rehab assignment. I'd guess he needs at least two more turns in the rotation but could be back before the end of August at this point. |
| Walker Buehler made another rehab start Thursday, and it was actually good! He allowed one run on one hit in 5.1 innings of work, with five strikeouts and three walks. Okay, the walks aren't great, and his velocity was down at least 1 mph on pretty much every pitch. Okay, and he only got 10 swinging strikes against a Triple-A hitter. So, yeah, this was better than what we've seen from Buehler for this season, but I'm not sure there's much here to get excited about right now. |
| German Marquez is out for the season with a stress reaction in his right elbow. The good news is he doesn't have any ligament damage coming back from Tommy John surgery, but he'll finish his season having made just one start. Marquez could be an interesting Fantasy option if the Rockies opt to trade him this offseason. But they probably won't. |
| Shohei Ohtani (elbow) continues to recover from elbow surgery and could face hitters at some point in September. It seems extremely unlikely he's going to see any game action this season, but he should be fully recovered and ready to go for the start of next season. It's pretty wild to remember that he's having another MVP-caliber season as a hitter while recovering from major elbow surgery. |
| Ryan Feltner was placed on the 15-day IL with a right shoulder strain. He left Wednesday's game with the injury after just one inning, and his season could be over now. |
| Alex Cobb (hip) will make his season debut Friday against the Twins. He's going to have a decent chance to get some wins the rest of the way if he can keep his ERA below 4.00, and I like Cobb as a low-end starting option moving forward. |
| Grant Holmes will start for the Athletics Friday against the Rockies. |
| The Padres selected the contract of Carl Edwards Jr. from Triple-A. He was, at one point, a pretty good high-leverage reliever, but it's unlikely he's much more than a middle relief option for the Padres. |
| The Rays activated Richard Lovelady from the IL and optioned Hunter Bigge to Triple-A. Bigge seems like he could emerge as a candidate for saves in Tampa down the road, but they don't view him as that kind of pitcher just yet. |
| The Orioles signed J.D. Davis to a minor-league contract and he is playing at Triple-A Norfolk. I guess maybe if Coby Mayo continues to struggle they could turn to Davis, but it's unlikely he'll make much of an impact for Fantasy after being cut twice this season. |
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| Thursday's Standouts |
| Hunter Green, Reds @MIA: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – His velocity was down a bit, but it's worth noting that he threw 108 pitches and has thrown 100 or more in four straight now, so he might just be conserving some energy here. Greene has, rather miraculously, turned himself into one of the true workhorses in baseball, going at least six innings in six straight starts and averaging over 100 pitches per start for the season. |
| Tyler Anderson, Angels @NYY: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Anderson continues to actually generate strikeouts, with 42 in 37.2 innings of work over the past six starts. He hasn't really changed his pitch mix much, but he's just generating a ton more whiffs, including a very strong 14 on 95 pitches against a tough Yankees lineup in this one. The changeup is the star here, but he even has a whiff rate north of 25% with both his four-seamer and cutter since the start of July. I don't really expect the strikeouts to remain this much of a strength, but it does at least make it easier to buy his success than earlier in the season. |
| Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays vs. BAL: 8 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – How did he pull this one off? That's not a rhetorical question, I'm really wondering if anyone has an explanation. His velocity was up a bit in this one, and the splitter did an excellent job generating weak contact – though only six whiffs on 25 swings is a super disappointing effort. Add in that the four-seamer gave up 10 balls in play with a 91.8 average exit velocity, and I don't see much reason here to get excited about Gausman. |
| Bryan Woo, Mariners vs. DET: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Woo must be feeling good, because he threw 88 pitches in this one, after throwing 92 in his previous start; he had just one start with more than 79 pitches all season prior to this stretch. He's clearly a very good pitcher, with a potentially elite fastball (eight whiffs on the four-seamer today), but the rest of his arsenal lags behind and makes it hard for him to consistently generate strikeouts. He's useful, but the ceiling is lower than you'd think for his very good ratios because of how rarely he goes deep into games or gets plentiful strikeouts. But Woo is certainly useful when healthy, and there's obviously plenty of long-term upside as he rounds out the rest of his arsenal. |
| Nestor Cortes, Yankees vs. LAA: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – This was a terrible start from Cortes, and seeing as he has a 7.67 ERA since the start of July, I'm not even sure it's worth noting that the weather was miserable throughout this one. He's just not pitching very well right now, with just one quality start going back to June 29. He's very droppable at this point. |
| Shane Baz , Rays @STL: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – I just don't know if it's going to happen for him this season. Baz got just eight swinging strikes on 91 pitches, including just four combined on his non-fastballs. He just isn't generating very many chases right now, a sign that he just isn't fooling hitters the way he needs to. The stuff still passes the eye test, and I'll be excited about drafting him as a sleeper next season, but I really want to see more consistent upside here. He has just two starts with more strikeouts than innings in four tries, and neither has gone more than 5.1 innings. |
| Kyle Gibson, Cardinals vs. TB: 6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – The Rays are a beatable matchup, and Gibson did it, generating six of his 11 whiffs with his sweeper, which he threw 25% of the time to lead his arsenal. Gibson is capable of nights like this against the right matchups, but he also has a 3.99 ERA and 4.80 xERA for the season, so he's easy enough to toss aside when the matchups aren't favorable. He's got the Reds in Cincinnati next week, which is pretty middling, so whether you want to keep Gibson around probably depends on your available alternatives. |
| Charlie Morton, Braves vs. MIL: 2.2 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Can someone tell me why Charlie Morton is 89% rostered still? He has a 4.47 ERA for the season and an even uglier 6.52 mark since the start of July, with just two quality starts in his past five. The Braves aren't the dominant team we expected them to be, so he's not winning many games, and he's not even getting a bunch of strikeouts anymore – he has just 25 in 29 innings since the start of July. Go ahead and drop him. |
| Kyle Harrison, Giants @WAS: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – This was supposed to be a pretty good matchup for Harrison, but he just hasn't been able to build on that 11-strikeout effort at the end of July. In two starts since, he has just seven strikeouts in 8.1 innings while allowing eight earned runs. It looked like he might be turning a corner around the All-Star break, but Harrison looks pretty droppable at 65% rostered in CBS Fantasy leagues. Especially if his velocity dip (down 2 mph to 90.7 in this one) sticks. |
| DJ Herz, Nationals vs. SF: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – Herz has flashed some upside here, but consistently remains an issue, mostly because of his iffy command. That was the primary issue in this one, as he needed 74 pitches just to fail to get out of the third inning. When he's on and throwing strikes (or generating chases), Herz can be a very solid pitcher, and I think he'll have some sleeper appeal next season, but he's too erratic to trust right now. |
| Luis Ortiz, Pirates vs. SD: 6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Things are starting to come apart for Ortiz after a pretty tremendous run to open his time as a starter. After giving up just three runs in his first four starts, he's allowed 13 in his past three. Without much strikeout upside, Ortiz is just a low-end streamer right now. |
| David Bednar, RP, Pirates – He blew another save Thursday, and has allowed a run in four straight outings. His ERA for the season is up to 5.77 and he just hasn't really looked right amid a couple of injuries, including seven walks in 7.2 IP since coming off the IL in July. |
| Tyler Fitzgerald, SS, Giants – In a rare scene, Fitzgerald actually didn't homer Thursday against the Nationals. He just went 2 for 5 with a walk and three steals and is now on a 36-homer, 29-steal pace. There are some real red flags in his profile, notably a 29.2% strikeout rate and pretty ugly whiff rates, but Fitzgerald was also a good power/speed guy in the minors, and even if he regresses to a .250 hitter, he might still be a must-start Fantasy option. |
| Zach Neto, SS, Angels – Neto went 3 for 4 with an RB double and finished his three-game series in New York going 7 for 13 with two homers and nine RBI. Neto has recently moved up into the top two of the Angels lineup, and that makes his power/speed profile look even more valuable. He should probably be rostered in just about every league at this point – he's even a top-six shortstop in points leagues since May 1. |
| Vladimir Guerrero, 1B, Blue Jays – He went 3 for 4 Thursday and came a single short of a cycle. His OPS for the season is up to .945 and he's on pace for 30-plus homers and is hitting .321 for the season. It's been a heck of a bounceback season for a guy who some Fantasy players and analysts had written off as an elite Fantasy option. |
| Jazz Chisholm, OF, Yankees – Chisholm went deep Thursday, giving him five homers in 10 games since joining the Yankees. He is now third-base eligible and should be viewed as a top-10 option at that position. |
| Joey Bart, C, Pirates – Bart went 2 for 5 with a home run Thursday, and he has five since July 1 while hitting .286 with a 20.5% strikeout rate. Making contact has always been the biggest issue for Bart, but with his improvements in that regard, I think he's absolutely worth rostering in all two-catcher leagues. |
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