| | | | Tuesday, April 29, 2025 | | I'm gonna be honest with you: Monday was not the most exciting day in MLB history. There were only eight games on a travel day, there weren't many notable performances from widely available players we need to alert you to, and there wasn't much in the way of interesting news to cover, either. We'll get to everything you need to know from Monday's action, including some waiver-wire targets to consider, but we also need something else to talk about. | | On Monday night's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, Frank Stampfl asked Scott White and I to come up with some buy-low and sell-high candidates at both pitcher and hitter to discuss, and that's what we're going to focus on to kick off today's newsletter. So, let's get to some trade targets, and if you want more, head to the YouTube channel to see who Frank and Scott are looking to get in their deals: | | One hitter to buy-low: Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros | | Really, I could go with any early-round hitter who is disappointing here. I made the case for Mike Trout as a buy-low candidate last week, and Rafael Devers might be an even more obvious option, given how much panic there was around him in the first couple of weeks of the season. But the slow-starter I'm most convinced will turn things around is Alvarez, who has such a strong track record in recent years that I really don't even need to look at the underlying numbers to make this call. Happily, he's also sporting a 94 mph average exit velocity and his normal strikeout rate, making Alvarez one of the biggest underperformers by expected wOBA of anyone in the league. He's going to be just fine. | | One pitcher to buy low: Sandy Alcantara, SP, Marlins | | Alcantara's stuff looks fine. Per FanGraphs' Stuff+ model, he's sitting at a 109 mark, compared to a 110 mark prior to his Tommy John surgery; the problem is, his Location+ metric is down from a 105 to 93, a well below-average mark. Command is often the last thing to come back after a major arm injury, so I fully expect Alcantara to keep getting better as he continues to get more reps – the fact that he had his turn in the rotation skipped after his first start of the season surely didn't help. The command will get there for Alcantara, and eventually, he's going to be pitching on a much better team, too. There's going to be a point in the season where you're very happy you kept the faith in Alcantara. | | | | One hitter to sell high: Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Yankees | | You might see Goldschmidt's .361 batting average and think that's an obvious fluke, but it isn't really – sure, his .307 xBA is significantly worse, but it's still in the 92nd percentile among hitters, so I'm not sure it makes sense to call that a "fluke." He's earned most of those hits, both with a lower strikeout rate and a 33.7% line drive rate that would be his highest since 2020. The underlying data mostly backs up his hot start … I just don't believe in the underlying data. Not that it's false, or anything like that – I just don't think it's sustainable. Goldschmidt hasn't increased his bat speed, and his swing decisions mostly look the same as last year, which suggests there isn't a huge change in skill set here. I think Goldschmidt is just on a heater, and that will end sooner or later for the 37-year-old, who actually has the worst average exit velocity and hard-hit rates of his career. | | One pitcher to sell high: Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks | | Even going back to Pfaadt's prospect days, I've never been a big believer in him. He has to pitch in the strike zone a lot to overcome middling stuff, which leaves him vulnerable to the kind of blow-up starts he has thus far avoided this season. But, given his history, we know those blow-up starts are coming, and Pfaad is pretty lucky he hasn't been tagged for one yet – his 4.98 xERA suggests he's been exceptionally lucky. I'd be looking to sell Pfaadt right now before the worm turns. | | Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB: | | | | Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets | | Gavin Lux, 2B, Reds (49%) – Lux just kind of continues to fly under the radar. To a certain extent, I get it – he doesn't have a ton of over-the-fence pop and he rarely steals bases, so there's only so much upside he can bring to the table. On the other hand, he's eligible at multiple spots in your lineup and has been terrific all season long so far, bumping his season line to .352/.438/.473 after another multi-hit game Monday, his sixth in the past nine games. It'd be nice if you could count on him for bigger run or RBI numbers, but the batting average is helpful even without everything else – and his .284 xBA suggests he should still be very useful even when he inevitably slows down. | | Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies (66%) – Goodman is starting to look like he might have some staying power. The hype around him has quieted down, but Goodman has been showing some upside again. He homered for the second time in six games Monday to bring his season total to six, to go along with 14 RBI, 13 runs, and a useful .258 average. At a position where playing time is hard to come by, Goodman is an exception, becoming the seventh catcher to reach 100 PA for the season. He's kept the strikeouts manageable enough that he should be a total drag on your batting average, and his power stands out for a catcher. He's a more than viable No. 2 option. | | Tony Gonsolin, SP, Dodgers (37%) – With Tyler Glasnow officially on the IL with a shoulder injury and Blake Snell receiving an injection aimed at helping his own ailing shoulder heal, there's suddenly a real path to a long-term rotation spot for Gonsolin. He hasn't pitched in the majors since 2023 after having Tommy John surgery, but that issue is well in the rearview mirror at this point – his return to the majors was derailed by a back injury this spring. Gonsolin averaged 93.2 mph on his minor-league rehab assignment, right where he was during 2022 when he had a 23.9% strikeout rate and 2.14 ERA. He'll return to the rotation for the Dodgers Wednesday and has must-start upside if he can recapture his pre-injury form. | | Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Orioles (29%) – I'm not much of a believer in Sugano, but I'll admit, he looked very, very good Monday in striking out eight over five innings against the Yankees. His previous two starts might have been better , in that he finished seven innings in both, but Monday's start was more impressive and hinted at significantly more upside moving forward. The pristine control Sugano was known for in Japan was on full display in this one, as he painted the upper third of the strike with four-seamers, kept the sweeper to the bottom half of the zone on the glove side, and peppered the other side of the zone with his curveball and splitter, ultimately racking up a career-high 17 swinging strikes. It's the first time Sugano has really shown upside at the MLB level, and it's the first time I've really had any interest in adding him, as a result. | | | | Monday's standouts | | Jack Flaherty, Tigers @HOU: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Flaherty wasn't at his best in this one, obviously, but it's not like he got crushed either. His velocity was fine and his secondaries were working well for the most part – and he really only ran into trouble in the sixth inning, when he allowed a leadoff single and then a homer before being pulled – so I really don't think there's anything to be concerned about here. If this is what the bad starts look like, Flaherty is going to remain a must-start pitcher. | | Bailey Ober, Twins @CLE: 7.2 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – I don't really know what to make of Ober. His velocity continues to be down 1 mph or more from last season, but I'm not sure that's enough to explain the massive drop in his strikeout rate – he's only down about 0.5 mph from 2023, for example, when he had a 25.3% strikeout rate, but he's down to 17.8% in the early going. I'm inclined to view it as a fluke, especially since his whiff and swinging strike rates still look pretty solid. Ober has already turned his season around, and I think even better days are ahead. | | Gavin Williams, Guardians vs. MIN: 2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – The stuff can be so good, but the command remains untenable. It seemed like there were as many belt-high sweepers in the middle of the zone as there were ones buried, and that's never going to work out. I don't want to give up on Williams, because the upside is clear – look at that eight-strikeout outing against the Yankees the start before this one – but I also don't really see how you can trust Williams in your lineup right now. And if you can't start someone, it doesn't take much to justify dropping them. If Tony Gonsolin pitches well Wednesday, I might be willing to pull the trigger on that one, and I'd probably drop Williams to stash Ryan Weathers, too. | | Dustin May, Dodgers vs. MIA: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – This one is especially frustrating, coming as it did against the type of matchup May should be able to overpower. He did nothing of the sort, and now has 22 strikeouts to 12 walks in 27.1 innings – mediocre numbers, even if his ability to generate weak contact remains intact. May just doesn't seem all that interesting to me right now, even without taking into account the fact that, at some point, they're probably going to have to limit his workload. | | Ronel Blanco, Astros vs. DET: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Blanco is getting a decent number of whiffs – 19 today, a better-than-decent number! – and doing a decent job of limiting hard contact. He's also still walking way too many hitters and isn't doing a good job finishing them off for strikeouts, so I remain pretty unenthused. I didn't buy his breakout in 2024, and I don't really buy that he's much more than a streamer, still. | | JP Sears, Athletics @TEX: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Sears is filling up the strike zone, and teams aren't making him pay for it yet. He threw 55% of his pitches in the strike zone in this one and is up to a 52.5% mark for the season, compared to 48.7% for the league as a whole. That's a good way to avoid walks, but it's also a good way to get hit hard if you don't have premium stuff, and Sears definitely doesn't. He's on a nice little roll right now and gets the Marlins in his next start, so he's a viable streamer in the short term. But I don't expect him to be a long-term contributor. | | Will Warren , Yankees @BAL: 3.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Warren has some interesting skills. His sweeper has shown some upside as a swing-and-miss pitch, and his changeup was surprisingly effective in this one. But there's a big difference between "has some interesting skills" and "is useful for Fantasy," and he's nowhere near the latter yet, with no starts of more than five innings and a 5.63 ERA. If the Yankees had a better alternative, I imagine Warren would be down back in Triple-A already. Instead, he's gotta figure out how to muddle through it in the majors, and he's clearly not ready for that. | | News and notes | | Tyler Glasnow was officially placed on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. We have no real details on the extent of the injury, nor any kind of timeline, so you just have to hang on to Glasnow and hope it's measured in weeks and not months. | | Cole Ragans is uncertain to make his next start on Wednesday against the Rays. He left his last start with a groin injury, and I'm hoping they just play it safe and let him get fully recovered. | | Jordan Westburg was placed on the IL with a left hamstring strain. He's off to a slow start, too, so maybe the break will be good for him. He was dealing with some other nagging injuries early on, too, so let's get him back to 100%. | | Blake Snell received an injection to assist in treating his left shoulder inflammation. He's probably another month away after this minor setback, though that is mostly just speculation. | | Luis Arraez is expected to be activated from the 7-day concussion IL on Tuesday. | | Tyler Stephenson will be re-evaluated at the end of this week. He's currently on a rehab assignment for his strained left oblique and is a viable, if boring, No. 2 catcher. | | The hope is that Ivan Herrera will begin a rehab assignment as soon as this Thursday. He's coming back from a knee injury and is a higher priority stash than Stephenson, even if his return will take a little longer. | | Zach Eflin is scheduled to throw another bullpen on Tuesday. He's on the IL with a right lat strain. | | Grayson Rodriguez was transferred to the 60-day IL, which makes sense. He was recently diagnosed with a mild right lat strain and will be out until June at least, at this point. | | Luis Gil began a throwing program Sunday. He's on the IL with a right lat strain and won't be ready until at least June. | | The Braves brought back old friend Eddie Rosario and optioned Jarred Kelenic to Triple-A. | | | | | | | | Golazo Network | | 24/7 Sports News | Watch LIVE global soccer coverage on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
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