| Good morning Voornaam, Yesterday was another juicy day of news, making it tricky to figure out where the focus should be. As always, I've covered everything in Ghost Bites, with my highlights in this mail based on what I found most interesting.
Lewis is right up there for me, with a trading statement that confirms that the excellent growth in the interim period was no fluke. This is a poster child for value stocks in the JSE and if this carries on for much longer, then growth investors might have to start getting involved!
Speaking of value stocks, Balwin is a share that I've avoided completely and I'm glad to have done that. Still, buried in the latest results is a rather interesting display of momentum, with a much better second half in the financial year vs. the first half. They are at least seeing the benefit of the interest rate decrease, which appears to be more than sector peer Calgro M3 can say at the moment.
Another value investor favourite is Tiger Brands, where the ongoing improvement to the business is making a difference. A big difference, in fact. When a management team has large levers to pull, the results can be exciting.
Boxer's latest results are hard to interpret. The 53rd week is the least of the complications, with HEPS ruined by the number of shares in issue after the IPO. But if you read carefully, you'll find that there are other reasons for the pressure on earnings, mostly related to the expansion programme and the associated lease costs (along with how daft the accounting standard for leases is).
MTN's share price had a tame day in response to the release of group quarterly earnings, but that's mainly because there's been such a strong year-to-date rally. Growth was priced in and has been delivered, although mainly in Africa rather than South Africa.
There are also updates from Metair, Redefine, Santova and South32. As I said - a busy day!
These details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
Warren Buffett is famous for a reason. The latest Magic Markets podcast was a lovely opportunity to dig into some of the recent nuggets from Omaha, where Buffett was his usual entertaining and insightful self, before surprising everyone (including his successor, Greg Abel) with the news that he will be stepping down as CEO at the end of this year. Learn more here>>>
How do you feel when you read that something is Made in China? Although South Africans seem to be highly receptive to Chinese cars, the same can't be said for everywhere in the world. In fact, using MSG as an example, Dominique Olivier demonstrates that Chinese bias is a problem in many markets. Learn about it here>>>
Finally, be sure to register for Astoria on Unlock the Stock on 15th May at 12pm. Attendance is free as always, but you must register here>>>
Have a great day! |
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| SATRIX: A Day in the Life of a Portfolio Manager at Satrix |
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| | | Ever wondered how the nuts and bolts of ETFs work? What goes into index tracking and making sure that it is achieved at the lowest possible cost? And are all indices created equal from a complexity perspective?
Lauren Jacobs (Senior Portfolio Manager at Satrix) shows you what a day in the life of a portfolio manager looks like.
Get ready to learn and be inspired at this link>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: April's droppers and whoppers |
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| There may have been many public holidays in April, but that didn't stop the market from reacting to the broader geopolitical turmoil. With recession concerns as a key theme, which stocks did well and which ones delivered a nasty drop? This podcast is an overview of recent big share price moves among larger local companies on the JSE, revealing some interesting trends. Ghost Wrap is brought to you by Forvis Mazars. You can find the recording and the transcript at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | Lewis is shooting the lights out and
Tiger Brands is also doing well. MTN is enjoying Africa again. Balwin had a strong second half, while demand at Calgro M3 has faltered. Boxer's results are complicated. Redefine is struggling to find much growth. Look out for Metair, Santova and South32 as well. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - CA Sales Holdings |
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| In the 51st edition of Unlock the Stock, regular attendee CA Sales Holdings returned to the platform to talk about the recent performance and strategic focus areas for the group. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Now is a great time to question our Chinese bias |
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| | | A wave of TikToks from Chinese factory owners is reshaping how we think about where the things we buy come from. By casually revealing that many brandnamed products are made in Chinese factories, these videos are forcing a reckoning with a deeper bias: our enduring discomfort with the words “Made in China”. Dominique Olivier uses MSG as a great example of the bias in this excellent piece>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: USE Inc - a superpower stumbles |
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| | | With the recent global markets turmoil, driven by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs policies, questions are being asked about the future of US exceptionalism. Jeremy Maggs hosts this episode with Annelise Peers and Richard Cardo of Investec. Get the insights in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Honda has added its name to the sad tale of the automotive sector - well, the sector outside of China at least. I always revert to talking about the disruption to the European manufacturers, but the truth is that the Japanese players are facing just as much of a problem. When last did you see a new Honda on South African roads?
In the latest quarter, operating profit fell 76%. That's horrific. Although the full-year drop is 12.2%, the market is obviously going to focus on the momentum into the end of the financial year. Keep in mind that this is before the impact of tariffs on cars in the US is felt, so things can definitely still get worse.
This week in Magic Markets Premium, we've covered Waste Management. This company probably isn't on your radar, yet it represents a solid utility-style investment profile with a wide moat. As our subscribers will find out in the research, you need to pay a beefy multiple for that profile. But is it still appealing? |
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| Magic Markets: Mesh.Trade - Unlocking Private Markets |
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| | | Magic Markets: As the recent trend in IPOs and delistings on public markets tells us, an increasing number of companies are looking to private markets for their capital raising needs. This means that retail investors are being shut out of these opportunities, which is particularly problematic as these early-stage opportunities usually offer the highest potential returns.
Mesh.Trade is committed to increasing access for investors, which is why the platform is designed to enable issuers to raise debt and/or equity funding.
Connie Bloem joined us to talk about why access to good quality private assets is so important in the South African market. To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| Global markets surged as the US and China agreed to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs and collaborate to prevent a rupture in the global economy. Following weekend talks in Geneva, the US committed to reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% for a 90-day negotiation period, while China agreed to cut its duties from 125% to 10% during the same timeframe. This landmark deal exceeded market expectations and sparked a strong rally in global equities and the US dollar.
Wall Street saw significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising 3.3% and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 4.4% overnight. In a joint statement, both Washington and Beijing emphasized the importance of their bilateral trade relationship to their economies and the world, a tone that analysts said improved market sentiment.
However, China’s stock market remained flat today, and Hong Kong shares retreated as initial enthusiasm gave way to caution over the protracted negotiations ahead. Despite the optimism, concerns linger about the length and complexity of future talks, tempering investor confidence.
The rand softened yesterday against the strengthening dollar as an unwind of US / China trade tariffs increased appeal for US based assets. The JSE All-Share Index is expected to open flat this morning after a positive close yesterday.
The agreement’s positive impact on risk appetite also led to a decline in gold prices, which hovered near a one-week low, as the safe-haven appeal of gold diminished amid improved market sentiment.
Meanwhile, oil prices eased slightly from Monday’s two-week highs, pressured by concerns over rising supplies due to OPEC’s increased production for May and June, coupled with ongoing uncertainties despite the tariff truce.
Overall, the US-China tariff rollback deal has injected fresh optimism into global markets, boosting equities and the dollar while weighing on traditional safe havens like gold, even as cautiousness remains about the path ahead in trade negotiations.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.23/$ | US 10yr 4.46% | Gold $3,260/oz | Platinum $988/oz | Brent Crude $65.06
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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