Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fairly small. Most of the day's gains were in place beforehand.  The data (lower ISM/employment, job openings, and job quits) helped keep bonds near the stronger end of the day's range, and thus, the stronger end of the 5 week range. There's more data on Wednesday, but the biggest wild card may be the long-awaited tariff announcement in the afternoon. Econ Data / EventsISM Manufacturing 49.0 vs 49.5 f'cast, 50.3 prev Prices 69.4 vs 65.0 f'cast Employment 44.7 vs 47.6 prev Job openings (lower = better for rates)7.568m vs 7.630m f'cast Job Quits (lower = better for rates)3.195m vs 3.266m prev Market Movement Recap10:05 AM Stronger overnight and at best levels after 10am data.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.1bps at 4.154 12:55 PM Sideways and slightly choppy all morning.  MBS still up 6 ticks  (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.161 04:07 PM Still flat.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.165.
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April 1, 2025
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MBS Commentary
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fai... (read more)
Mortgage Rate Watch
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on the lower edge of that range. Because there's not much of a gap between the highs and the lows, it di... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
This ain’t no April Fools economic news: not only has Hooters declared bankruptcy, but apparently there is yet another push to have credit unions pay income taxes. “Right now, leaders in Congress are discussing how to fund an extension of the Tax Cut... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries